Odd Thoughts

Taking Every Thought Captive

The South is generally known as being more Christian than other regions of the country, often being referred to as "Th Bible Belt" in a somewhat demeaning way. Nevertheless it is true. I was amazed this morning to discover another group that mixes their Christianity with their hobby:

World Series Thoughts: The Paralell Lives of Frank Thomas & Jeff Bagwell

I am obviously pleased that the Astros are on their way to the World Series, and that they got through the Cardinals to do it. Whenever you see postseason broadcasts, the commentators recognize that they have a lot of extra viewers that don't always keep up during the year. So they try to bring out the extra stories, the human interest side, like David Eckstein's family history of kidney problems. You know by now that this will be the Astros first World Series in a 43-year franchise history, and it will be the first World Series in the state of Texas. You know that the White Sox have not been to the World Series since the 1959 Go-go Sox team lost to the Dodgers, and that their last win came in 1917, which of course preceded the Black Sox scandal of 1919 in which the Sox threw the Series to the Reds for the sake of the gamblers and 8 players, including "Shoeless" Joe Jackson were banned from baseball for life.

One angle of this that I've been thinking about this morning is Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas. Both were born on May 27th, 1968, Bagwell in Boston and Thomas in Columbus, GA. Bagwell debuted in 1991 and won the NL Rookie of the Year, Thomas spoiled his ROY chances by debuting in 1990 and playing 60 games, but certainly had a Rookie of the Year-caliber year in 1991. Both play first base and both won MVP Awards in 1994. Thomas also won the award in 1993. Thomas has 5 All-Star appearances, Bagwell has 4.

At the end of 1996, Thomas looked like the better overall player, and maybe he was/is, but injuries have drained him over the years, and if you look at their career numbers now, Bagwell is usually ahead in the totals. Obviously they did a few things different: Thomas was a much more disciplined hitter, while Bagwell stole more bases. Here's a look at there career totals through 2005:

They have both have played their entire careers for the same organization, and now they are making their World Series debuts together. And in keeping with the last several years, Bagwell's just a little bit ahead: Thomas is hurt and will not play at all, and Bagwell is hurt, but will be able to pinch hit and do a little DH'ing. I'm not making a comment on their careers or who was/is better; I'm just observing the similarities.

2005 Win Shares Teams

Again, if you don't knwo about Win Shares, Google it. That said, Here are a few 2005 Dream Teams based on the Win Shares for the year.

AL Defensive Production
C, Joe Mauer, MIN
1B, Mark Teixeira, TEX
2B Orlando Hudson, TOR
3B Eric Chavez, OAK
SS, Juan Uribe, CHW
OF, Aaron Rowand, CHW
OF, Vernon Wells, TOR
OF, Grady Sizemore, CLE

NL Defensive Production
C, Mike Matheny, SFG
1B, Derek Lee, CHC
2B Craig Counsell, ARI
3B David Wright, NYM
SS, Rafael Furcal, ATL
OF Brady Clark, MIL
OF Carlos Beltran, NYM
OF Willy Taveras



AL Offensive Production
C, Victor Martinez, CLE
1B, Mark Teixeira, TEX
2B, Brian Roberts, BAL
3B, Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS Michael Young, TEX
LF Manny Ramirez, BOS
CF, Johnny Damon, BOS
RF, Gary Sheffield, RF
DH, David Ortiz, BOS

NL Offensive Production
P, Jason Marquis, STL
C, Michael Barrett, CHC
1B, Albert Pujols, STL
2B, Jeff Kent, LAD
3B, Morgan Ensberg, HOU
SS, David Eckstein, STL
LF, Brian Giles, SDP
CF, Jason Bay, PIT
RF, Miguel Cabrera, FLA



AL All-Things-Considered
C, Joe Mauer, MIN
1B, Mark Teixeira, TEX
2B Brian Roberts, BAL
3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS, Michael Young, TEX
LF Manny Ramirez, BOS
CF, Johnny Damon, BOS
RF, Gary Sheffield, RF
DH, David Ortiz, BOS
SP1, Mark Buehrle, CHW
SP2, Johan Santana, MIN
SP3, Jon Garland, CHW
SP4, Bartolo Colon, ANA
SP5, Jose Contreras, CHW
SU1, Scott Shields, ANA
SU2, Cliff Politte, CHW
CL, Mariano Rivera, NYY

AL All-Things-Considered
C, Mike Matheny, SFG
1B, Albert Pujols, STL
2B, Jeff Kent, LAD
3B, Morgan Ensberg, HOU
SS, David Eckstein, STL
LF, Brian Giles, SDP
CF, Jason Bay, PIT
RF, Miguel Cabrera, FLA
SP1, Dontrelle Willis, FLA
SP2, Roger Clemens, HOU
SP3, Andy Pettitte, HOU
SP4, Roy Oswalt, HOU
SP5, Brandon Webb, ARI
SU1, Scott Linebrink, SDP
SU2, Dan Wheeler, HOU
CL, Billy Wagner



Observations:
On defense, only two players from each team (Matheny and Lee in the NL and Chavez and Wells in the AL) have ever actually won Gold Gloves. Keep in mind that the Win Shares are a measure of the overall defensive contribution a player makes towards his team's wins in this particular year. It has noting to do with a players ability to dive for balls or make dazzling plays. None of the usual outfield candidates made this list, including Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Steve Finley, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron, or Mark Kotsay. This factor could be circumstantial, or maybe the WS system knows things that we just don't know and refuse to believe.

Both All-Offense teams were the same as the All-Things-Considered teams, except for catcher. Mark Teixeira is the only player to lead his league at his position in both offense and defense.

On the overall teams, 10 of the 14 pitchers from both teams were in the playoffs. The Astros and White Sox both had three starters and a set up man on the list. What's more for the White Sox is that Freddy Garcia was 6th in AL pitching win shares, just .1 behind Contreras. Only one hitter between both teams made the teams on the offensive end.

The Bathroom Reader Selection

Some of you might be aware of the fine work that has been done for many years now by the folks at the Bathroom Reader Institute (BRI). For those of you that are not, Uncle John's Bathrooms Reader is in its 17th edition. Most of the books are about 500 pages and contain reading selections that range from 1 to 5 pages. Amy doesn't like the thought of a book that is for reading "in the john", but that is what it is for. The various selection length is there to suit your needs, from long to short. Anyway, I recently read a particular selection that I wanted to share (I won't tell you where I was when I read it; that would be rude).

The World's Unlukiest Man

The Selak Zone
On a cold Junuary day in 1962, a Croatian music teacher named Frane Selak was traveling from Sarajevo to Dubrovnik by train. Well, that's where he thought he was going. Little did he know that he was actually about to embark upon a strange 40-year odyssey marked by freak accidents and near-death experiences.

The train carrying Selak in 1962 inexplicably jumped the tracks and plunged into an icy river, killing 17 passengers. Salek managed to swim back to shore, suffering hypothermia, shock, bruises, and a broken arm, but very happy to be alive.

One year later, Selak was on a plan traveling from Zagreb to Rijeka when a door blew off the plane and he was sucked out of the aircraft. A few minutes later the plane crashed; 19 people were killed. But Salek woke up in a hospital - he'd been found in a haystack and had only minor injuries.

In 1966 he was riding on a bus that went off the road and into a river. Four people were killed - but not Selak. He suffered only cuts and bruises.

In 1970 he was driving along when his car suddenly caught fire. He managed to stop and get out just before the fuel tank exploded and engulfed the car in flames.

In 1973 a faulty fuel pump sprayed gas all over the engine of another of Selak's cars while he was driving it, blowing flames through the air vents. His only injury: he lost most of his hair. His friends started calling him "Lucky."

In 1995 he was hit by a bus in Zagreb but received only minor injuries.

In 1996 he was driving on a mountain road when he turned a corner and saw a truck coming straight at him. He drove the car through the guardrail, jumped out, landed in a tree - and watched his car explode 300 feet below.

Bad News (and Good News) Travels Fast
By this time he was starting to get an international reputation for his amazing knack for survival. "You could look at it two ways, " Selak said. "I'm either world's unluckiest man or the luckiest. I prefer to believe the latter."

How does the story of Frane Selak end? Luckily of course. In June of 2003, at the age of 74, Selak bought his first lottery ticket in 40 years . . . and won more than $1 million. "I'm going to enjoy my life now," he said. "I feel like I've been reborn. I know God was watching over me all these years." He told reporters that he planned to buy a house, a car, and a speedboat, and to marry his girlfriend. (He'd been married four times before and reflected, "My marriages were disasters, too.")

Update: In 2004 Selak was hired to star in an Australian TV commercial for Doritos. At first he accepted the job, but then changed his mind and refused to fly to Sydney for the filming. Reason: He said he didn't want to test his luck.

Awards Continued

The Hank Aaron Award

This is a relatively new award from MLB and is largely fan-based, which makes it dumb. Each of the 30 teams gets three nominees, the fans pare that group of three to one, MLB pares the group of 30 to 6 from each league, and then the fans vote again. The award has the same problem that all-star voting does, that is, it becomes simply a popularity contest.

The purpose of the award, however, is good. The basic idea is that the award is for the best offensive season by a player in each league, with all the intangible/subjective criteria of the MVP award removed. I'm going to add an extra stipulation - the current MVP candidates are excluded. So, with the above as the standard, here are the Odd Thoughts 2005 Hank Aaron Award winners.

AL Hank Aaron Award

Michael Young, TEX: This might seem like an odd choice, but the guy won the batting title with a .331 average, led in hits with 221, and had 40 doubles, 24 homers, 114 runs scored, and 91 RBI, all while fluctuating between 1-3 in the batting order. In the DFB standard, he even topped Miguel Tejada for points at shortstop, and was 4th overall amongst American Leaguers. In fact, he's one of only two non-1B/OF in the overall top 10. Honorable mention to Mark Teixeira (TEX) and Gary Sheffield (NYY).

NL Hank Aaron Award

Derek Lee, CHC: This one was pretty easy. Lee was ruled out of serious MVP contention by his team's dismal performance. Nevertheless, lee won the batting title at .335, had 199 hits, 50 doubles, and 46 home runs, which also produced a league-leading .662 slugging percentage. He was second only to Albert Pujols in total DFB points, but the 40-point difference can easily be accounted for in the secondary statistics (runs scored, RBI's) plus walks. Let me take a minute to justify the walks distinction: with the number of Cardinal injuries this year, teams had a much easier time pitching around Pujols, which probably gave Pujols a few more walks than normal, in fact he set a career high by 13. Anyway, Derek Lee had a fantastic year. Honorable mention to Jason Bay (PIT) and Jimmy Rollins (PHI).

AL Cy Young Award

Mariano Rivera, NYY: This is the year for it. Rivera has been overlooked many times, and this might have been his best year. It's not his highest save total, but he had a career-best 1.38 ERA, which is over a quarter of a run better than his previous career-best. He had his third highest innings pitched total (as a closer), and maintained a strikeout per inning total over 1. He did blow 4 saves, but he also had 6 unearned runs, which led to at least two of those (One from Iron-Gloved E-Rod). Without another overwhelming AL starter, this is the year Rivera deserves a lifetime achievement-type AL Cy Young nod. The rest of the top 10:

2. Johan Santana, MIN: Despite a "poor" record (16-7), still the most dominant starter in the AL with a major league best 238 K's and a 2nd in AL with 2.87 ERA.
3. Bartolo Colon, ANA: Led AL with 21 wins, and might be considered the front runner to win the AL Cy Young as determined by the writers. Take a good look though, from a career standpoint, Colon is not that much different than Mike Mussina. At his best he'll be top 5 in his league, but never #1.
4. Mark Buehrle, CHA: Solid all-around year at 16-8, 3.12, and an AL-best 236.2 innings. I would have thought he'd get more than 16 wins on a 99-win team, though.
5. Randy Johnson, NYY: Johnson is about 65% of the pitcher he was last year. It should be noted though, 65% of Johnson is still very, very good.
6. John Garland, CHA
7. Cliff Lee, CLE
8. Joe Nathan, MIN
9. Kevin Millwood, CLE
10. John Lackey, ANA

NL Cy Young Award

Dontrelle Willis, FLA: The D-Train led the majors with 22 wins, 5 shutouts, 3rd in the majors with a 2.63 ERA, tied for the ML lead with 7 complete games, and 3rd in NL in innings pitched. Many will argue for Carpenter, but A) Carpenter had a zero luck factor, that is, Carpenter has the record he deserves, whereas Willis is +4 (Willis should have won 4 more games than he did), B)Despite Carpenter's better strikeouts, he still allowed .20 more earned runs per game even though he had the "best all-around" defense in the game behind him. In my opinion, this award is for the best pitcher, and does not bear the same subjective stipulations as the MVP Award, and while it's close, I believe Willis had the better season. The rest of the top 10:

2. Chris Carpenter, STL: 21-5 record with a 2.83 ERA, 2nd in NL with 213 K's, tied for ML lead with 7 complete games (4 shutouts), tied for 2nd in innings pitched. Fantastic season - #1 in DFB points.
3. Roger Clemens, HOU: Best NL leading ERA (1.87) since Maddux posted a 1.63 in 1996, and that in a hitter's park. Went only 13-8, but lost or got a no-decision in 15 starts in which he allowed 2 or fewer runs.
tie-4. Roy Oswalt, HOU: Second straight 20-win season (oddly enough, it's the only such streak in progress), 2.94 ERA, and tied for second in innings pitched (241.2). As with Clemens, Oswalt did not get wins in more than a normal share of starts.
tie-4. Andy Pettitte, HOU: Had perhaps his best year in the majors with a 17-9 record and second only to Clemens in the majors with a 2.39 ERA.
6. Jake Peavy, SDP
7. Pedro Martinez, NYM
8. John Smoltz, ATL
9. Chad Cordero, WAS
10. Carlos Zambrano, CHC

AL Barry Bonds Award

I hate to do it, but I have to call this one a tie between Alex Rodriguez, NYY and David Ortiz, BOS. There numbers were extremely similar across the board. A-Rod had more hits, but Ortiz had more Doubles. A-Rod had 1 more home run (48), but Ortiz had 18 more RBI's. A-Rod had 21 steals, but Ortiz had a much better strikeout to walk ratio. At best their lineups are a tie, but the Yankees are probably a little better. A-Rod plays above average defense at 3B, but Ortiz had 10 walk-off hits. Again, I hate to call it a tie, but it's just far too close to call. When you go down the typical MVP questions it's easy to argue either way, and in the end the two teams finished with the same record. So there it is a Barry Bonds Award tie. The rest of the top 10:

3. Travis Hafner, CLE: .305 batting average, 33 home runs, 108 RBI, and lots of huge hits down the stretch for the Tribe, despite missing 25 games. Note: another strong BBA candidate that is predominantly a DH.
4. Vladimir Guerrero, ANA: Like Hafner, Guerrero also missed a few games this year (19), but hit .317 with 32 homers and 108 RBI's. Guerrero sets the tone for the whole Angel lineup.
5. Chone Figgins, ANA: Figgins led the majors with 62 stolen bases, hit .290 with 113 runs scored and 10 triples, and most importantly, did whatever the Angels needed in the field. This year it was 4 games at SS, 42 at 2B, 56 at 3B, and 72 in center field, and he plays all of them above average. He would likely be a gold glove winner if he just stayed at one position.
6. Manny Ramirez, BOS
7. Hideki Matsui, NYY
8. Michael Young, TEX
9. Mark Teixeira, TEX
10. Gary Sheffield, NYY

NL Barry Bonds Award

Andruw Jones, ATL: I have made the argument for Jones before in other places, so I'll just sum it up quickly. Despite overwhelming injuries to the Atlanta team, a ridiculous number of rookies in their everyday lineup, and in a year the Braves where supposed to role over, Jones stepped up and absolutely carried this team in it's moment of greatest need. Without Pujols the Cardinals probably tiptoe into the playoffs, and still as division champs, but without Jones, the Braves don't even sniff a .500 record. Defense is rarely a real BBA factor, but when you are the best, the standard by which current outfield defense is judged, you can consider it a plus too. I know about the batting average, but 51 home runs, 128 RBI's and an improbable division title speak for themselves. The rest of the top 10:

2. Albert Pujols, STL: Another fantastic season from Pujols, and another second place finish for MVP. #1 in offensive DFB points. 2nd in NL batting .330, 41 homers, 117 RBI's, 129 runs scored, and a new element to his game - 16 steals. Not his best season to date (2003 and 2004 were better), but strictly defined, the best offensive season in baseball by a hair. There's no doubt he is the biggest offensive force in baseball today, and should be #1 in any open fantasy baseball draft.
3. Derek Lee, CHC: Great .335, 46, 107 year, with gold glove defense undone by a stinky team.
4. Morgan Ensberg, HOU: Ensberg was the unlikely leader of the Astros offense with 36 home runs and 101 RBI's. The Astros' pitching was fabulous, but without Ensberg, Clemens, Oswalt, and Pettite fail to get wins in even more games. Ensberg is the most improbable reason for the Asrtos' post season berth.
5. Jimmy Rollins, PHI: Excellent all around season with .290 average, 196 hits (38 2B, 11 3B, 12 HR), 115 runs scored, and 41 steals. He finishes the season with a 36-game hitting streak still in progress.
6. Brian Giles, SDP
7. Miguel Cabrerra, FLA
8. Chase Utley, PHI
9. David Wright, NYM
10. Carlos Lee, MIL

More Awards

Comeback Player of the Year

I have to say that my heart is not in this award. I generally think it's pretty dumb. Coming back from one injury-plagued season is not a comeback. GUys like Richie Sexson don't count. Maybe Ken Griffey is a better choice because he's had four or five straight injury-plagued years. Then there's a guy like John Smoltz, who came back to the starting rotation from closing.

Anyway, it seems to me that the CBPOY should a player that was good and then bad and then good again, and that's hard to measure if you take injuries out of the picture. So without going through a lot more explanation my AL CBPOY is Barry Zito and the NL nod goes to Griffey.

Rookie of the Year
This one is more fun than it has been in a few years. In both leagues we have essentially two different groups of rookie candidates: there are players that played above average to good that played most of the season, and there are players that were great for half of the season. So this year I think I'll break it up into two awards per league.

AL Rookie of the Whole Year

Robinson Cano, NYY: Cano became the Yankees everyday second baseman on May 3rd and never looked back. At the time the Yankees were in panic mode. Cano was only still in the Yankee system because the Yankees didn't know he was good enough to trade (he was offered, along with Chien-Ming Wang, to the Dimaondbacks in the Johnson deal, but they weren't interested). Anyway, Cano hit .297 with 14 home runs and and 68 RBI's in several different places in the lineup, and he came up with some big hits for the Yanks down the stretch. Honorable mention to Gustavo Chacin (TOR) and Huston Street (OAK).


AL Stud Rookie of the Year

Jonny Gomes, TBD: Gomes hit .282 with 21 home runs and 54 RBI's in 101 games for the Devil Rays. He also stole 9 bases. His home runs project out to 36 over a full season, and he makes Aubrey Huff expendable. Honorable mention to Dan Johnson (OAK).


NL Rookie of the Whole Year

Willy Taveras, HOU: Taveras held down the lead-off spot for the Astros most of the year, played above average center field and stole 34 bases while batting .291. Like Cano, he's unspectacular, but very solid. Honorable mention to Jeff Francis (COL) and Ryan Langerhans (ATL).


NL Stud Rookie of the Year

Ryan Howard, PHI: Howard is extremely similar to Gomes from a numbers standpoint, but he comes out on top of Gomes in most numbers (except stolen bases), and Howard did it for a contending team. Howard hit some huge home runs for the Phillies down the stretch, and makes Jim Thome expendable. His home run total (22) projects out to 42 in 600 at bats. Honorable mention to Jeff Francoeur (ATL).