Normally by this time of year, it's easy to give out season ending awards even though the season hasn't ended, but this year, some of the awards are tough to call, particularly the AL Cy Young and MVP, and the NL Rookie of the Year. So this time around, I'll spread it out.
I plan to give out seven primary awards: The Barry Bonds Award (see explanation here), the Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Surprise Player of the Year, and the Hank Aaron Award (for the best offensive season, considering only numbers and not the intagibles usually considered for MVP). I'll give each of the above awards for AL and NL players. I might also through in an isolated oddball award here and there too.
So, I guess I'll get started with the Managers. The MOY, in my opinion, is the manager of the biggest surprise team of the year, or the guy who won when he was supposed to loose.
AL Manager of the Year
Eric Wedge, CLE: Six weeks ago I had no doubt that the the AL MOY would go to Ozzie Guillen. But the White Sox faded after their blistering first half, and the Indians have come on strong. I believe the Indians will make the playoffs one way or another, but even if they don't, I think it is clear that Wedge has led the biggest surprise contending team in the AL this year. Honorable mention to Ozzie Guillen (CHA) and Ken Macha (OAK).
NL Manager of the Year
Bobby Cox, ATL: I think the Braves, in an odd sort of way, were the biggest surprise team in the NL this year. This was the year that most of the experts said the Braves would loose, and quite honestly, they should have. He had a lot of rookies this year, injuries to half the starting pitchers and Chipper Jones, and he he is, with a five game lead in the last week of the season. Honorable mention to Charlie Manuel (PHI).
The Surprise Player of the Year Awards are for players that went above and beyond their expected capabilities. This doesn't necessarily mean that the player was bad and became good (though that would qualify). It is for the player that most exceeded expectations.
AL Surprise Player of the Year
Brian Roberts, BAL: Roberts' season ended early but started off with a bang in 2005 and finished with a .041 batting average improvement (.273 to .314) and also set career highs in hits, triples, home runs, RBI's, OBP, and SLG. He also improved his strike out to walk ratio. He has achieved these career highs in 80 fewer at bats than last year. Honorable mention to Jorge Cantu (TBD) and Jhonny Peralta (CLE).
NL Surprise Player of the Year
Morgan Ensberg, HOU: Nobody knew how the Astros would find any offense to replace Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent, and while no one player can do that entirely, Ensberg has done a great job and become a true threat in the middle of the Astros lineup. He has career highs in just above every offensive category, including 36 home runs, which is currently 6th in the NL. Honorable mention to Chad Cordero (WAS) and Felipe Lopez (CIN).
I perused the first 100 hits or so for Best Outfield Defense with the words Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds included in different searches. Before I list some of the quotes, I want to make an abservation. A lot of things I saw would say something to the effect of this guy is ". . . as good as Andruw Jones," or "might be better than Andruw Jones." Obsviously when a quote ends that way, it could mean a lot of things, but one thing is clear: Jones is the standard. He's the standard because he's the best. There are other things like this. When it's pitchers from the 30's and 40's it's always, "he threw harder than Walter Johnson." Comments like these are not at all uncommon, and while the claims they make about another being similar or better are debateable, the player they acknowledge as the generally accepted best is clear.
I did not include any comments from Atlanta-affiliated people:
"I think he's the best, period, in center field," said Lee [Derek], who's also a Gold Glove winner. "Defense gets overlooked. But some days, even if you aren't going good offensively, you can bring good defense and help your team."
"He is generally recognized as the best outfielder in the big leagues, a regular on the nightly highlight shows with his spectacular catches." – Paul Newberry, Associated Press
"He's the best defensive player on the planet." – David Schoenfield, ESPN.com
"He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball (maybe Tori Hunter gives him a run for the money)." – Baseball-Fever.com
"We've had managers and coaches say that Andruw Jones is the best center fielder they've seen since Willie Mays," Boras says. "It's a visual understanding. Andruw's routes to balls are excellent. His first step is excellent. His ability to come in and go back is excellent. He can catch the ball running at many different angles." – Scott Boras
There's also a lot of statistical research at baseball-fever and hardballtimes.com
I did find one St. Louis journalist make the claim that Edmonds is the best. I also found these referenses to Edmonds:
Ken Griffey Jr. may no longer be the cream of the crop in center, but the 10-time American League Gold Glove winner still compares well to his peers. The same is not true of Jim Edmonds or Bernie Williams, whose defensive reputations (four Gold Gloves apiece) may be misplaced praise of their prolific offense. – from the baseball-fever.com article above.
Edmonds was also named the among the "Most Watchable" at outsports.com, The Home for Gay Sports Fans and Athletes.
Most of the data I've found on the matter of defensive analysis is new to me, and I'm not always sure exactly what these numbers mean. And, as previously noted, there are some big problems with traditional analysis of defensive statistics. I am going to try to look at a few different ways to analyze the defensive data but please keep the problems in mind over the next few paragraphs.
Zone Rating or Zone Factor is calculated by adding a player's put outs (play in which a player makes an out by the act of catching the ball) to their assists (plays in which an out is recorded by a player throwing the ball to another player), then dividing that total by games played. Obviously, RF can be affected by the number of floy outs a team's pitching staff produces. I have looked at the RF for Jim Edmonds and Andruw Jones from 2000 through yesterday, and I have also looked at the number of fly outs the Cardinals and Braves have had in that same time period. The data about each team's flyouts does not suggest that either have been abnormally high or low. The range factor for Edmonds is 2.42, while the RF for Jones is 2.62.
I also decided to look at the percentage of the teams fly outs that were recorded by each player. From 2000 to the present, the Cardinals have produced 8,811 fly outs, and 1,959 (22.2%) of them have been made by Edmonds. That number alone seems astonishing - that one player could account for such a high percentage of a teams fly outs. The braves, in the same period, have produced 8,571 fly outs, and Andruw Jones has made 2,402 (28.0%) of them. Again, Jones comes out on top.
I also looked at their ratios of Total Chances to Put Outs. I am not sure what the exact definition of a "Chance" is, but somehow players are credited with having a "chance" making a play, and either do or do not make that play. I am sure that an outfielder's total chances do not have anything to do with ground balls as the number of total chances does not support that idea. Anyway. Edmonds has had 2,044 TC's (these are only his OF TC's; he has played some 1B in this time period, and those numbers have not been considered). Edmonds made the out on 1,959 of his 2,044 total chances, which is 95.8%. Jones had 2,471 TC's and caught 2,402 of them, which is 97.2%. Jones wins again.
As I mentioned in the previous post, an outfielder can only record an error if he touches the ball. That means that any erros made by an outfielder have to be bobbled, tipped, or dropped. In the period of study, Edmonds has made 26 errors in the outfield, while Jones has made only 19. (I promise I'm trying to find some sort of calculation that Edmonds can win.)
Finally, there's the Win Shares. I've mentioned Win Shares a long time ago. It is an extremely complex calculation. I 've read an explanation of the process, and believe that they generally work, but I have no idea how to calculate them myself. If you want to know more about win shares, you'll need to Google it. I was only able to find Win Shares data for the last three years. In 2004, Edmonds was 3rd in NL defensives WS with 6.5, Jones had 7.4. In 2003 Edmonds was an average 3.72 (10th), Jones was first with 6.04. In 2002 Edmonds was a little better than 2003 with 4.73, while Jones recorded an astonishing 8.94.
I know that there is a stat for "runs saved" which credits defensive players with the number of runs that they prevented their opponents from scoring. I have not been able to track down data to compara Jones and Edmonds in this area to, but the above data puts Jones on top every time. I'm starting to feel bad for the Edmonds guys out there because I haven't even found a quote from an authority figure that says Edmonds is or ever has been the very best defensive center fielder in the game.
Obviously, there are a lot of problems, and the first one is a problem with the rules and the natural human error by score keepers across the game. If a routine fly ball is hit to the outfield, and the fielder just can't see it, and he doesn't touch the ball, it's not an error. If Jorge Posada hits a ball right at the second baseman in a double play situation, and the 2B gets the out and second and the SS throws to 1B, the ball beats Posada by ten steps, and the 1B drops the ball, there is no error because a double play cannot be assumed.
On the other hand, if Omar Vizquel makes a sliding glad on the second base side a of the bag, a ball no actual human can catch, and attempts to make a throw from his knees but can't cleanly get the ball out of his glove, that's an error. So right off the bat, there is a big practical problem concerning what is called or not called an error.
This plays some funny tricks onthe defensive statistics. Often an average fielder at SS will make fewer errors than another SS that is reputed to be great. This is simply because the better SS gets to more balls and has more chances to make an error. And then on top of the, the extra chances tend to come on particullarly difficult plays. So for Omar Vizquel to have more errors and possibly a worse fielding percentage than David Eckstien is not conclusive poof that Eckstien is the better fielder. If a person could regularly watch both players, Vizquel would quickly become their man regardless of what the flawed defensive statistics suggest.
Here's another example of a statistical problem: double plays. If you were to look right now at the MLB leaders in double plays turned, you might be allarmed to find Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Arizona among the league leaders. Now, some good defensive pairs are up there to, but should we assume that Jack Wilson and Freddy Guzman are the second best defensive middle infield in baseball? I don't think so. The Twins are 4th and they're doing it with a hodge-podge of Nick Punto, Juan Castro, Jason Bartlett, Luis Rivas, and Michael Cuddyer splitting the MI duties. Are Angel Berroa and Ruben Gotay actually better defenders than Vizquel and Ray Durham? The notion is laughable, and yet the KC pair has turned 8 more DP's than the guys in SF. There's no way to truly explain every angle of this, but one reason you find teams like the Royals and Pirates at the top of the list is that their teams just aren't that good. This leads to having a lot more guys standing around on first base, which leads to a lot more DP opportunities.
Considering the problems caused by the recorded data, the best solution then, is to allow the people in the games to hand out Gold Gloves, and in fact, that's what they do. Gold Gloves are voted on by the managers in each league, but this creates another problem. The managers see one SS everyday, and 15 other SS some. If Jimmy Rollins makes one spectacular play in one particular game against the Padres, Bruce Bochy might vote Rollins for gold glove based on that one play. If Cesar Izturis makes one bonehead play against the Astros, but is brilliant the rest of the time, that one play could cost him the vote from Phil Garner.
The fact that managers do a bad job at selecting Gold Gloves is clear from the way that winning Gold Glove becomes a club that is hard to get out of. Josh mentioned that Edmonds had won a Gold Glove in the NL every year he's been there, and that's true. He won 2 in the AL, though his streak was interupted by an injury in 1999. Edmonds is in the club. He'll probably keep winning them until he gets to the point where he's not an everyday player or misses a big part of a season due to injury. Considering the stage of Edmonds career, if he misses half a season, he probably won't win another gold glove - he'll be out of the club, and Juan Pierre or somebody else will take over.
Barry Bonds won Gold Gloves 8 out of 9 years - as a left fielder; he was in the club. Ozzie Smith won 13 staright GG's from 1980 to 1992. Barry Larkin bore the GG torch at short after smith really slowed down. But in 1992, do you really think Smith, at age 37, was a better defender that Larkin, who was 28 that same year? No. Smith was in the club. Sinec Larkin's career began to decline, the NL has not had a regular SS Gold Glove candidate. Since Larkin won his last GG in 1996, the NL has had 5 different GG winners at SS.
Anyway, this is not to say that Gold Gloves are meaningless, they're just not as meaningful as they're made out to be. When you hear that a player like Jim Edmonds won 7 Gold Gloves in his career, it is enough to say, well Edmonds must have been one of the best defenders of his day. That is true. That doesn't mean he was the best defender every year (Andrus Jones has won 7 straight himself), or any year, but he might have been. There's just no statistical way to really measure it. And on top of that, MLB has the wrong group of guys voting on the award.
All that leaves you with in determining the best defensive players in your own impression, the comments of various experts, and some good common sense.
This story comes from my dad:
9/3/05
Friends,
I had a profound experience tonight as a volunteer at our local evacuee shelter. I met two middle-aged Cajun brothers (Randy and Oray) and Orry's son (15-year old Corey), who were rescued by boat-helicopter-bus today after spending over three days in their attic and on their roof. They had evacuated Oray's wife and daughter and their 75 year-old father the day before Katrina hit. They said that after the levee broke the water rose from their feet to their chin in fifteen minutes. They believe thousands to be dead, having watched as the coast guard bundled the dead together and tied them to trees for later recovery. As they were rescued they had to shoot their (several) dogs and leave everything they owned behind (what little was left). They were sunburned and exhausted as they were delivered to the bridge near the Superdome and later put on a bus for Nacogdoches. As they entered the shelter, with air conditioning, food and army cots, one of the men said to me, "This is heaven" (I never would have thought to call it that). The one thing they wanted most was a shower (but that would have to wait until tomorrow). They asked me to try to locate an aunt in south Louisiana (where their father and sister was), which I was able to do. They were sobbing with joy to hear these men had survived. Tomorrow I hope to link them up via phone. I plan to visit the men again tomorrow and help them reunite with their family and to tell them of the gospel. Randy remarked to me tonight that he had made more changes in his life in the last three days than he had in the previous thirty years. Orry said that the next time he heard the word "hurricane" he would be the first one out of town. The sister I spoke with (Marrion) was still missing her 18-year-old son and asked that we pray that he would be found. We saw 200 new evacuees arrive at one of the Nacogdoches shelters tonight, all with similar stories. I know I will go to bed tonight with a more grateful heart. Pray for the gospel to fill these voids in people's lives.
Randy Booth