I haven’t posted a thin, even the slightest baseball thing, in about a month. I don’t know if anybody is even watching anymore. However, I do have a few observations about the baseball season as it enters what is generally referred to as “the stretch run.”
The Mariners have been terrible still, but Ichiro has been amazing. He’s currently batting .370 with 197 hits. He has 859 for his career, which is well past the record for player’s first four seasons. There’s little doubt he’ll pass 900 hits in that span. After an insane July where he hit .432 with 51 hits, he’s batting .506 in August and already has 41 hits with 9 games remaining in the month. Since the break, he’s hitting .484 with 78 hits in 36 games. He’s also raised his average 49 points since the break, going from .321 to .370. The single season hit record is 257 set by George Sisler in 1920. It seems likely at this point that Ichiro will pass that mark. As for batting .400, it’s not likely, but it’s also not out of the question. If he does that, he’d have to be the AL MVP despite the poor season the Mariners have had.
Mariano Rivera has 41 saves on the season with 39 games remaining. He needs 17 more to break the record of 57 set by Bobby Thigpen in 1990. While it’s possible that Rivera could make it, I just don’t believe he will. It has nothing to do with Rivera himself, I just don’t believe he’ll get the 17 to 19 more opportunities it will take for him to pass the mark. Eric Gagne had 55 saves in 2003, and John Smoltz had 55 in 2002. In the end, it was opportunities, not their ability, that kept them from passing the mark. On a side, I’d like to see it done by any one of the three aforementioned closers, as it would be nice for this record to be held by a player of some significance.
The next question is whether Barry Bonds will pass the Babe this year or next. Bonds has 35 homers on the season and needs 21 more to tie Babe Ruth at 714. Already at 693, there’s little doubt that Bonds will reach 700 soon. The only real issue is whether or not Bonds will see enough pitches to hit 21 or 22 more home runs this year. My guess is that he will finish between 705 and 710 and be in a position to pass the Babe and Hank Aaron in 2005. He does seem to be a lock to win another batting title. He’s hitting .371 and the next guy on the list, Mark Loretta, is at .342. Bonds is only 24 walks away from 200. The all-time record is 198, held by Barry Bonds. Of the ten highest season totals in the history of the game, Bonds holds four of them, including the top three.
This is not a really a Playoff prediction note, rather just an observation that the MLB marketing dream could happen in both leagues this year. It’s not out of the question for the Yankees to face the Red Sox again in the ALCS, which is of course their ultimate fantasy. The other two historical rivalries in the NL have a chance of facing off in the NLCS as well. Both series can’t happen, but MLB would be ecstatic to have Dodgers v. Giants or Cardinal v. Cubs. I believe the latter would be more popular. Again, I’m not saying this will happen; I’m just saying it could.
Finally, my thoughts on MVP’s and Cy Youngs:
AL Cy Young:
1. Johan Santana, MIN: 13-6, 3.23 ERA (2nd in AL), 196 K (1st in AL) Since June 1st: 11-3, 1.95, 142 K in 111 innings.
2.Mark Mulder, OAK: 16-4 (1st AL), 3.75 ERA, 119 K, 5 Complete Games.
3.Mariano Rivera, NYA: 41 Saves, 1.44 ERA
NL Cy Young:
1. Jason Schmidt, SFG: 15-4 (1st NL), 2.52 ERA (1st NL), 193 K (2nd NL)
2. Roger Clemens, HOU: 12-4, 2.94 ERA, 159 K
3. Ben Sheets, MIL: 9-9, 2.89 ERA, 192 K
AL MVP:*
1. Manny Ramirez, BOS: .319, 33 HR (1st AL), 98 RBI
2. Gary Sheffield, NYA: .300, 31 HR (tie 2nd AL), 94 RBI
3. Miguel Tejada, BAL: .318, 24 HR, 113 RBI (1st AL).
*Provided Ichiro does not hit .400.
NL MVP:*
1. Adrian Beltre, LAD: .330, 38 (tie 1st NL), 87 RBI
2. Scott Rolen, STL: .329, 31 HR, 110 RBI (1st NL)
3. Barry Bonds, SFG: .371 (1st NL), 35 HR, 79 RBI
*The stellar performance of Albert Pujols will keep Rolen from winning the hardware.
The Trading deadline came and went. Randy Johnson didn't go anywhere. I was happy with that since the tide finally turned on him. When he pulled the same stunt in Seattle in 1999, the M's just did what they were told. In fairness to the M's brass at the time, they did get some quality players in return. The D-backs expected nothing less, and when the Yankees had nothing to give, Arizona just told Randy he would have to tough it out. But there is something I don't understand. If you followed the story, you'll recall that at the beginning of July, Randy supposedly named a list of teams he'd be willing to go to. Then when the Angels tried to get him, he said no, even though the Angels were on the list. Then the Dodgers (who were not on the list) reportedly had a deal worked out and Randy vetoed it. But why? He says he lives in Phoenix with his family, and wants to keep them there, at the beginning of the year, he said he wanted to end his career there. Then he wants out to play for a winner. Look at the Dodgers, Randy! They're running away with the division, they play in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball, and with Randy Johnson on the team, they would have had the best pitching staff of the NL contenders, and it's about as close as you get to Arizona without being a Diamondback. I just don't get it.
Meanwhile in Yankeeland, the boss said, well if we're not going to get Randy and the Red Sox made a move, we have to do something. So they swapped Jose Contreras for Esteban Loaiza. This was a great deal for the White Sox, but really doesn't make any sense for the Yankees. Loaiza is not going to be a difference maker. The Yankees will coast into the playoffs, and then find themselves in a world of trouble because of their weak pitching, and Loaiza will be part of the problem.
Finally, I'd like to address the Wild Card issue. I know a lot of people like it, and from a pragmatic stand point, I would too if the Mariners were in the hunt. But there is a major flaw that, based on the current standings, ought to be obvious to many. Now I know people like to argue that it gives so many other teams a chance to compete for a playoff spot. This is true. At this time there are four teams in each league that have a reasonable shot of being the wild card team, in addition to the six division leaders, that means that almost half of the teams in baseball are really in the hunt, and that does not include Houston, Florida, and Cleveland, who are all within six games of the wild card themselves.
So what's the beef? The beef is that besides the AL West and maybe the NL East there are no good division races at all. The Twins, Yankees, Dodgers, and Cardinals all have leads of 6 games or more over the second place teams in there divisions. The Braves have a 4.5-game lead in the NL east. While the wild card allows us to have races when the divisions are seemingly sowed up, it puts us in a spot where we can never again, and I mean never, have a meaningful division race between the two best teams again.
You might recall the last great division race we had, which at this point will be the last one ever, between the Braves and Giants in 1993. The Braves won with 104 wins, and the Giants went home with 103. Tremendous victory for Atlanta, heartbreaking defeat for the Giants. Now, if this had been in a wildcard system, it would have mattered. The teams wouldn't even have played hard during the final few weeks of the season, because they would have known that they were both headed for the playoffs. The would have rested their regulars and gotten their pitching staffs in order for the postseason, and nobody would have cared. Don't believe me? Check out the 1996 NL West race. Or how about the 2001 NL Central?
The Cubs are currently 9.5 games behind the Cardinals, and in the old system, a come back would for them would have to be in the miracle category. They would have to play inspired baseball, and if they did it, it would captivate the nation. But under the current system, they don't have to do that at all. The just have to be okay. They have a 2-game lead in the wild card standings and all the have to do is fend off the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th best teams in the NL, one of which is a game below .500, and none of them are 10 games better than .500. And this argument applies across the board. The Phillies don't have to catch the Braves; they only have to catch the Cubs. The Red Sox don't have to catch the Yankees; they only have to catch the A's.
Then there's biggest insult of all. Let's assume that the Red Sox and Cubs win the wild card spots. Let’s assume that they win the first round of the playoffs and have to met with the Yankees and Cardinals in the respective LCS's. From a marketing standpoint, the league would just be absolutely thrilled, but why should the Yankees and Cardinals have to beat those teams again? They already trounced them in the 162-game series, yet they face the danger of loosing a well-deserved World Series berth to a team they already finished about 10 games up on during the season. The wild card is nothing more than egalitarian mediocrity parading itself as excitement.
I owe a great deal of this line of argumentation to Bob Costas. Costas took a similar stance in his book Fair Ball.
I had written a Mariner report on time, but it was lost in the uploading process. This is a condensed version: The M's went 1-6 last week, and this week hasn't started out much better.
Bucky Jacobsen will spend less time in the field and more time at DH. As a result, Bob Melvin has toyed with the idea of playing Edgar Martinez at first base. Edgar hasn't played in the field at al since 2001, and hasn't played more than 9 games in the field in a given season since 1994.
Mariner of the Month/Week: Despite a fantastic month for Randy Winn in which he hit .351 with 4 homers and 19 RGI's, Ichiro was even better, and the honor for July goes to him - his second MOM of the 2004 season. Ichiro hit .432 with a total of 51 hits. His 50-hit month was the second of the season and third of his career; he' the only player in baseball history to accomplish such a feat. He's now leading the majors in hitting (.359) and hits (170), which is 21 more than the next guy on the list (Michael Young). If Ichiro duplicates his July in August and September, it won't be enough to reach .400, but it should leave him around .382 with 266 hits. The hit mark would be the new all-time record. It's not likely to happen, but it sure would be fun to watch.