After winning our last two games last week, and and our first two games this week, visions of at leat a .500 record were well at hand. But we were able to better our four-game winning streak with a five-game loosing streak, a streak that is still active, leaving us at 2 and 5 for the week. Fortunately, the rest of the division has been beating up on each other, and no single team has really established themselves as the front runner. You know it's still early because the Rangers have a share of first place. The 2001 A's finished April at 8-17, then went on to win 102 games for the year. In 2002, they were 25-28 at the end of May, and they went on to finish with 103 wins. That same year, the Angels went 11-14 in the first month and won the World Series.
I tried to reverse the curse I seem to have laid on the Mariners by changing my AL West prediction. You can see that here.
Mariner of the Week: There's no doubt that Freddy Garcia deserves it again, and so Freddy has now gathered the honor in two of the first three weeks. Freddy pitched 14.2 innings and technically allowed 3 runs (I saw those three runs, and only one was legit) for and era of 1.84. He struck out 10 while walking only 3. Unfortunately, during those 14.2 innings, the Mariners hitters only gave him one run, which left him at 0-1 in his two starts this week.
MLB.com has decided that two weeks into the season is a good time to start All-Star voting. I think it's a bit early. So, to validate that thought, I cast my first ballot by voting for the statistical leaders at every position. Here's how that first ballot looked:
American League:
C, Javy Lopez
1B, Mike Sweeney
2B, Bret Boone
3B, Hank Blalock
SS, Michael Young
OF, Jermaine Dye
OF, Matt Lawton
OF, Carlos Beltran
National League:
C, Charles Johnson
1B, Albert Pujols
2B, Marcus Giles
3B, Aramis Ramirez
SS, Jack Wilson
OF, Barry Bonds
OF, Moises Alou
OF, Richard Hidalgo
Out of the entire group, only four of them are likely to be starters (Boone, Pujols, Giles, and Bonds). Lopez, Blalock, and Beltran will probably make the team, and while its conceivable that some of those others will make the team, I probably cast the only vote Jack Wilson will receive in his career. Two weeks is just not enough time to begin determining what players deserve to go.
On another All-Star note, we're in luck this year since the game is in Houston - a National League park. That way they won't use that stupid DH, and we'll finally get to see dream matchups like reigning NL Cy Young winner Eric Gagne pitching to reigning AL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay. Can you imagine the excitement that will come from that one at bat alone? I mean, wow! The relief pitcher coming to face Halladay, a guy who . . . well . . . probably hasn't picked up a bat all year. In general, I can go either way on the DH, but the All-Star game seems like a good place to just use the DH regardless of the league affiliation of the home team.
As for the way I will likely cast most of my votes in the AL:
Ivan Rodriguez at C: this will be close race with Javy Lopez and Jorge Posada; it's hard to say who'll win
Mike Sweeney/Carlos Delgado at 1B: I'd love for Sweeney to win, but I'll switch to Delgado because he'll stand a better chance of beating Jason Giambi.
Bret Boone at 2B: he probably won't have much competition now that Alfonso Soriano is in Texas.
Hank Blalock/Eric Chavez at 3B: Same case as first base; I'll go for the guy that can beat A-Rod (which really can't be done).
Miguel Tejada at SS: There's really no way the fans will pass up on getting to elect Derek Jeter.
Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, and Ichiro in OF: Guerrero and Ichiro will get voted in, but Beltran will get snubbed by the Japanese voters who'll surely elect Hideki Matsui.
In the NL, I'll go with:
Paul Lo Duca at C: I always vote for him, but Mike Piazza will get the nod.
Albert Pujols at 1B: No contest.
Marcus Giles at 2B: Probably no contest.
Mike Lowell at 3B: Scott Rolen will win, but he's rubbed me the wrong way since the Philadelphia days.
Edgar Renteria at SS: Like Carlos Beltran above, Renteria will get left out for Kazuo Matsui.
Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey (provided he's healthy), and Brian Giles in OF: Bonds is in, but the rest of the spots are up for grabs; I predict Andruw Jones and Sammy Sosa.
I'll save the "Who Deserves it Post" when those facts can be reasonably determined - sometime around the end of June.
Things went a little better this week, though generally I'm disappointed with a 3 and 3 week, it's way better than 1 and 5. We have two straight weeks of 7-game schedules including 4-game series with Oakland and Baltimore. I regret that I will not be able to attend any of the games when the Mariners come to Arlington this weekend. A 5-2 week puts us within a game .500.
Mariner of the Week: Jamie Moyer got his first win and threw a good game, but I've got to give this week's MOW to Scott Spiezio. Spezio has only played two games for us thus far, but in those two games (both of which we won) he's 4 for 8 with a double and home run and 4 runs scored. That is, every time he's reached base, he's scored. That's a good start.
So, here’s the question: Should a long baseball career with the same team have any bearing on a player’s Hall of Fame credentials? I feel that it should, but I haven’t come up with a solid argument for it. I’d love to get some input on the matter.
As is currently stands, one player that had 10+ years with his original team changed teams during the off-season. That was Javy Lopez. There are seven other players that are currently in their 10th season with their original teams: Bobby Higginson of the Tigers, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera of the Yankees, Joe Randa and Mike Sweeney of the Royals, and Brad Radke of the Twins. Out of that group (including Lopez), there are two players that are already likely Hall of Famers: Jeter and Rivera. Posada and Sweeney have a chance.
Here’s the list of players that have completed at least 10 seasons with their original teams:
Barry Larkin, Reds 18
Edgar Martinez, Mariners 17
Craig Biggio, Astros 16
John Smoltz, Braves 15
Frank Thomas, White Sox 14
Jeff Bagwell, Astros 13
Bernie Williams, Yankees 13
Tim Salmon, Angels 12
Carlos Delgado, Blue Jays 11
Trevor Hoffman, Padres 11
Garrett Anderson, Angels 10
Chipper Jones, Braves 10
Mike Lieberthal, Phillies 10
Mike Matheny, Cardinals 10
A plausible Hall of Fame argument can be made for the top seven guys on the list, and out of the rest, Delgado, Hoffman, Anderson, and Jones all have a decent shot as well. But again, the question is, does the fact that these players have been with the same team for so long actually strengthen their case?
Part of the problem is that, at most, the individual player only deserves 50% of the credit for staying with their original team. It does speak a lot for them that they chose to stay put. Every player on that list has had an opportunity to leave, and they’ve chosen to stay, but it’s not as simple as all that. Their teams each decided to keep them, both by making offers and resigning them in contract years and refusing to trade them. On the other hand, all of these players had to make a consistent and significant contribution to their teams that caused the teams to want them to stick around.
I realize, at least I think I realize, that this is a very subjective matter. But consider Barry Larkin. Larkin carried the torch as the National League’s best shortstop after the Ozzie Smith era, and at this point no one has stepped up to bear that title. (I believe that guy will be Edgar Renteria, but he only has one All-Star start and one Gold Glove to date, and no one has been that guy year after year since Larkin gave it up in 1998, or so.) Now, Larkin was a perennial All-Star and Gold Glover for many years, he has World Series ring (1990), won the NL MVP in 1996, and was the highest paid player in baseball for a short time. I think he’s a marginal Hall of Fame case. His trouble comes from the fact that he split eras between a few great shortstops with Smith a Cal Ripken on one end, and Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra on the other. I feel like he’ll get lost in the shuffle when his first year of eligibility roles around (presumably in 2009). When his time draws near, and when he fails to be elected on the first ballot, some writers and Reds fans will make a case for him, and when they do, will the fact that he played 19 seasons, all in Cincinnati, help their case, or will it be a non-factor?
What a tough week. We went 1 and 5 and took ten innings on the last game of the week to get that one. The pitching seems to be the biggest problem to me. We really haven't been blown out any. It's just that the days we hit, we don't pitch, and vice versa. This week, we've got 3 in Anaheim and 3 in Texas. Hopefully we won't get embarrassed by the Angels like we did last week.
Mariner of the Week: I have to give honorable mention to our new shortstop, Rich Aurilia. He went 7 for 24, with 4 doubles, and 11 RBI, while only striking out once. But it is with great pleasure that I give the MOW of the year to Freddy Garcia. Freddy got a no-decision in his first outing, but he did manage to hold the Angels scoreless for 7 innings, allowing only 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7. Hopefully he can keep it up.
Though my personal team aspirations didn't go so well in the first week, I really enjoyed it anyway. It was just good to have real games being played - great pitching performances, clutch home runs, and lots of surprises. As for positive surprises, just look at the standings: Tampa Bay, Detroit, LA, and Cincinnati are all in, or at least have a share of, first place. On the other end of the spectrum, Toronto, Seattle, and Philadelphia are in last place in their respective divisions, all at 1 and 5. I know the standings at the end of the first week don't mean much, but it is interesting to note.
Otherwise, Barry Bonds seems to be stuck at 659, mostly because no one wants to pitch to him. A lot of ace starters lost their first games of the year, including Pedro Martinez, Roy Oswalt, and Roy Halladay, and Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt haven't even pitched. Andy Pettitte lost his Astros debut and promptly found himself on the disabled list with "shoulder soreness."
On the positive side, Albert Pujols seems to have picked up where he left off, and Josh Beckett has been an absolute stud.
It's good to have baseball back.
This weekend, a handful of us, including Robbie, Chandler, my father-in-law Walt Trisler, brother-in-law Pat, and several others, had the chance to go down to Davis Island. I'm not quite sure if it's an actual island, but there is a lot of water around - lakes and the MIssissippi River. The island is no longer public property, which is why it was such a treat to go. In Louisiana terms, it's a "Sportsman's Paradise" and it also happens to be the home-place of Confederate President, Jefferson Davis.
I wrote this as though there were pictures, but I am currently having technical difficulties. Sorry, no pictures.
A lot of us went there to fish. I'm not much of a fisherman, but I threw my bait in the water too, though with very little success. Actually, I had no success, and the group as a whole had very little success. Out of about 7 or 8 people fishing, we only ended up with a about 15 fish.
The alligators, on the other hand, were everywhere. You could hardly throw a rock without hitting one. Chandler, our resident wild man, swam (or waded) after one, seeking an answer to the question, "How close do you think he'll let me get?" We saw them in all sizes, including some we were willing to handle. Most of the ones we saw were in the 5-7 feet category, though we did see one that might have been over 10.
We also got to walk around the remains of the Davis plantation. Since the island has been privately owned for so long, the ruins are well-preserved and largely undesturbed. The houses were surrounded by English Live Oaks, which are like regular live oaks, only larger. The picture is what's left of Brierfield, which was the house Davis left from when he learned he had been elected president. The piers formed the basement and the main floor of the house sat on top of them. The house burned in 1931.
Seeing these historical sites was really an amazing experience. Though I've never been there, I understand that President Washington's Mt. Vernon and President Jefferson's Monticello are both well preserved and available to tour. But I'm sure you can't touch anything or really look things over. Brierfield was just there, and we could walk right through the middle of it. We could poke around in the dirt and try to find various artifacts. We could even take things home, had we chosen to do so.
I really think everybody had a good time. I'd like to go again, and I might get to, but at the same time, that might be the only time. You just never know.
There's really no consensus amongst experts on this division. I could hardly blame you for feeling another way about it, as you could surely support it with expert opinion - unless you think the Rangers are going to win.
The Bottom Line:
In certain senses, this will be the least impressive division winning team in 2004. Their stars are not of the obvious sort, and yet they have high-quality players at every position. They still have the best defense in baseball, and they made significant offensive upgrades in three line up spots. Their pitching should be better this year than it was last year, and at the end of the season, they’ll be the AL West champs.
Line Up:
The M’s offense was just a bit above average last year, but
they should be much better this year. They made significant offensive upgrades
at three positions. On paper, the group is just a notch below the Angels, but
their track record for staying healthy is much better, and they should have
enough punch to find themselves in the postseason. As a group, this is still
the best defense in the American League.
Pitching:
Out of all the coulds and shoulds and woulds surrounding
the top pitching staffs in baseball, the Mariners were the only team in the AL
last year that did. It wasn’t the Yankees or the Red Sox or the A’s leading the
pack, and it won’t be the Angels this year. And they did it without ever
knowing which Freddy Garcia was going to show up. On paper they don’t have the
best starting five (though it’s up there) and the don’t have the best bullpen
(so they say), but at the end of the year this will be the best group of 11 arms
in baseball – wait and see.
M’s Pitching Note: If any
one of these guys gets hurt or becomes ineffective, they have four guys (three
in the minors and Rafael Soriano) that are ready to step in right now.
Closer Eddie Guardado, L:
After Kazuhiro Sasaki bailed, Guardado became the man. Most teams would be
worried that their closer just quite baseball, but Guardado has over 80 saves in
the last two years. In fact, if you combine the last two years, he’s been the
most effective closer in the American League. On top of all of that, the M’s
have two more options (Soriano and Shigetoshi Hasegawa) if he goes down.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | BA | OPS | |
| Bret Boone (11) | 5764 | 820 | 1554 | 221 | 901 | 80 | 468 | .270 | .777 |
| Joe Gordon (11) | 5707 | 914 | 1530 | 253 | 975 | 89 | 759 | .268 | .823 |
The Mariners had a lot of good
options for comparisons. Because the choices were so good, I’ve chosen to do
two, and I’ve done it without using obvious choices like Edgar Martinez and
Jamie Moyer. Anyway, you’re probably wondering who the heck is Joe Gordon?
Well, he was a second baseman for the Yankees from 1938-1943, he went to WWII in
’44 and ’45, came back to the Yankees in 1946, then finished out his career in
Cleveland from 1947-1950. He was an All-Star 9 times, and he won the AL MVP in
1942. Bill James believes he should be in the Hall of Fame, and for him to say
that means a whole lot. Boone is a good comparison, but Gordon still has an
edge. Boone needs three or four more solid seasons to become a legitimate
candidate.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | BA | OPS | |
| John Olerud (14) | 6994 | 1076 | 2079 | 239 | 1145 | 11 | 1198 | .297 | .873 |
| Don Mattingly (14) | 7003 | 1007 | 2153 | 222 | 1099 | 14 | 588 | .307 | .829 |
Many people argue that Mattingly
should be in the Hall of Fame. While I’m not convinced, I’m at least
willing to hear the argument. No one, however, seems to think Olerud even
has a chance (which he doesn’t) or that he should even be considered. But
look what they’ve done. It’s extremely close. Going beyond the
numbers, they were both considered the premier defensive first basemen of their
day. If you look at their season-to-season numbers though, you see a huge
difference. Mattingly was a baseball stud from 1984-1989. In three
of those years he finished in the top 5 in MVP voting, winning the award
outright in 1985. Considering the offensive standards of the mid-80’s, his
numbers in 1985 and 1986 are just staggering. Olerud, on the other hand,
has been pretty even throughout his career. He was great in 1993, winning
the batting title and leading the AL in OPS. He finished third in the MVP
voting that year, and that’s the only time he ever cracked the top ten.
Besides that year, he’s been good but not great. I guess this just goes to
show what five good years with the Yankees can be worth. Seriously though,
it's clear that Mattingly was much, much faster.
Fantasy Top 5:
The Bottom Line:
I know this team looks good. I know the experts say they’ll win this division outright. But I’m telling you they’re wrong. The experts have always been wrong when it comes to the Angels. Half of them predicted they’d return to the playoffs in 2003 – and why shouldn’t they? They had the exact same team. Instead they went from 99 wins in 2002 to 77 in 2003, never even sniffing wild card contention. The truth is, the 2003 pattern has happened a whole lot more than the 2002 (which no expert predicted either). The did add Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon, but those guys won’t be enough to give them a division crown. They’ll contend. They could even win the wild card, but as for their AL West finish, it will be second place.
2004 Anaheim Angels Preview
The Bottom Line:
I know this team looks good. I know the experts say
they’ll win this division outright. But I’m telling you they’re wrong. The
experts have always been wrong when it comes to the Angels. Half of them
predicted they’d return to the playoffs in 2003 – and why shouldn’t they? They
had the exact same team. Instead they went from 99 wins in 2002 to 77 in 2003,
never even sniffing wild card contention. The truth is, the 2003 pattern has
happened a whole lot more than the 2002 (which no expert predicted either). The
did add Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon, but those guys won’t be enough to
give them a division crown. They’ll contend. They could even win the wild
card, but as for their AL West finish, it will be second place.
Line Up:
On paper, this appears to be the best offense in the AL
West, and short of the Yankees, the best in the American League. But the Angel
offense has looked good in March since 1995, and only once has it panned out.
Erstad, Salmon, and Glaus are constant injury risks, and this line up won’t be
much without them.
Pitching:
This is a good rotation and an excellent bullpen, but it’s
not the best in the division. Though the signings of Andy Pettitte and Roger
Clemens got more media attention, the Angel’s signing of Bartolo Colon was far
more significant. There are some concerns about Troy Percival’s health, but the
Angels have plenty of options if he falls apart.
Closer Troy Percival, R:
My gut tells me that Francisco Rodriguez will be the regular closer by the
All-Star break.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | BA | OPS | |
| Tim Salmon (12) | 5537 | 941 | 1571 | 288 | 966 | 47 | 927 | .284 | .895 |
| Lary Doby (13) | 5348 | 960 | 1515 | 253 | 970 | 47 | 871 | .283 | .876 |
Those are Doby’s career numbers and he is in the Hall of
Fame, but he’s a special case player as he was the first black player in the
American League. Salmon, unless he keeps playing and producing for many more
years, is still far from being a Hall of Fame candidate.
Fantasy Top 5:
The Bottom Line:
Some experts believe the A’s can repeat as AL West champs, but they’re telling themselves a story. They’re just the American League version of the Dodgers: one great hitter (Eric Chavez) and a great starting staff. The biggest difference is that the Dodgers have a great bullpen too – other than that, they’re an identical pair. GM Billy Beane could make a big move between now and July to change their outlook, but they’re really just a third place team. And that’s where they’ll be at the end of the year.
Line Up:
Like I said before, they only have one great hitter, and
there’s really no reason to pitch to him.
Pitching:
At this point, I think the Red Sox’ rotation is better, but
Redman is solid and Harden could be great. If that happens, the A’s staff will
be the best.
Closer Arthur Rhodes, L:
Anybody notice that the A’s keep making average closers look like they’re the
best in the league (Isringhausen, Koch, Foulke)? Rhodes will be a huge success
in 2004, and it goes back to the earlier comparison to the Dodgers: the good
starting pitchers and poor offense will create a ton of save opportunities.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| W | L | PCT | IP | ER | K | BB | ERA | WHIP | |
| Mark Mulder (4) | 64 | 34 | .653 | 777.1 | 326 | 528 | 215 | 3.77 | 1.26 |
| Barry Zito (4) | 61 | 29 | .678 | 768 | 266 | 611 | 291 | 3.12 | 1.18 |
| Tim Hudson (4*) | 64 | 26 | .711 | 812 | 309 | 634 | 277 | 3.42 | 1.26 |
This was the most interesting situation on the Oakland
team. Hudson’s numbers are from his first four seasons (he’s played five). It
is very difficult to come to a conclusion as to which of the three is the best
so far. My suspicion is that Hudson and Mulder have more dominant seasons, but
that Zito is more likely to have a long career. It’s just a hunch though.
Fantasy Top 5:
The Bottom Line:
Realizing the mistake is the first step, and they’ve taken action upon that realization. However, it will take more than one year to get things in order. I don’t understand, at least at this point, how a team can hang on to all those hitters instead of trading one or two of them for pitchers. Anyway, they’ll eventually get things turned around, but in 2004 they’ll be in familiar territory, last in the AL West.
Line Up:
I know the Rangers have been awful the past few years, but
offensively they’re still rather impressive. That’s saying a lot for a team
that has parted with Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Carl Everett, Rafael
Palmeiro, and Alex Rodriguez. Their core of young hitters might be the best in
baseball. They only comparison of three up-and-comers I can think of to compare
to Blalock, Teixeira, and Soriano is the Huff/Baldelli/Crawford group in Tampa
Bay. But in truth, when you throw in Michael Young and Laynce Nix, the Rangers
are even more impressive.
Pitching:
I know it’s a hitter’s park, but that’s no excuse to have a
team ERA that looks like you play 162 games in Coors Field. This is again the
area that will keep the Rangers at the bottom of the division.
Closer Francisco Cordero, R:
At times he can be lights out, other times he looks like he’s throwing with the
lights out. Could we have another Jose Mesa on our hands?
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| W | L | PCT | IP | ER | K | BB | ERA | WHIP | |
| Chan Ho Park (10) | 90 | 65 | .581 | 1359 | 618 | 1235 | 663 | 4.09 | 1.36 |
| Jason Schmidt (9) | 86 | 67 | .562 | 1342.2 | 600 | 1132 | 524 | 4.02 | 1.35 |
Is baseball a “what have you done for me lately” operation
or what?
Fantasy Top 5:
This section of the season preview is dedicated to Lisa from the bank, who seems to have been more eager to see the NL Central Preview than any other.
The Bottom Line:
The Astros had several injuries last year that kept them from running away with the division. None of the injuries were serious, but they caused a lot of lost time from key players like Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, and Jeff Kent. Even with the injuries they managed to keep pace with the Cubs and fell short of the playoffs in the last weekend of the season. Now the Astros are, but the Cubs are better too. It’s difficult to really say one of those two teams will come out on top over the other. I firmly believe that they are the two best teams in the NL and both will be in the playoffs. My gut tells me it will be the Astros going in as the division winner.
Line Up:
I’m not saying this is the best line up in the National
League, but it could be.
Pitching:
They already had a solid young nucleus of pitchers. Now
they’re even better after the huge signings of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.
Closer Octavio Dotel, R:
He’ll make a believer out of everybody this year. He’s been really good, maybe
even the best, over the last few years, he just hasn’t had that fluffy save stat
to help him get the recognition he’s deserved.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | BA | OPS | |
| Craig Biggio (16) | 8588 | 1503 | 2461 | 210 | 931 | 389 | 1020 | .287 | .807 |
| Paul Molitor (17*) | 8610 | 1482 | 2647 | 196 | 976 | 454 | 887 | .307 | .828 |
This comparison is a bit different from the others I’ve
done. I chose this one because I’ve long thought of the two as comparable
players, although Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Joe Morgan, and Ryne Sandberg
rate higher on Biggio’s list of comparable players than Molitor does. Anyway, I
thought I’d check it out anyway, and they compare favorably. I chose to use 17
seasons from Molitor rather than 16 because that puts both players at the season
they each completed at 37-years-old. The differences between the two are
slight, but Molitor has the career edge. I do believe that Biggio should be a
Hall of Famer even if he retired today, but he has not yet reached the
milestones that Molitor did. Furthermore, Biggio might not reach them
(particularly 3000 hits). Fter age 37, Molitor played four more years, all of
them at a productive level, and one of them at a superstar level (at age 39
Molitor hit .341 with 225 hits and 113 RBI’s). Biggio does have the edge on
defense, with four gold gloves to zero. Molitor has the edge in MVP top tens at
four to three, plus Molitor has a World Series MVP, while Biggio has never hit
well in the postseason. Anyway, I’d like to see Biggio go into the Hall, but he
would make his case a lot easier if he can hang on long enough to get 539 more
hits.
Fantasy Top 5:
The Bottom Line:
Most of my feelings on this are in the Astros preview. To sum up, I think the Cubs are very good. I think they’ll be playing ball in October, but they’ll be doing it as the wild card team. I can’t make any real logical explanation as to why I feel the Astros will top the Cubs in the division; it’s just a gut feeling.
Line Up:
The Cubs have made a big push for this to be the year,
making significant offensive upgrades at three positions and expecting to
benefit from a full season of Aramis Ramirez and Corey Patterson. Add in the 25
games that Sammy Sosa missed last year and this is one of the scariest batting
orders in baseball.
Pitching:
The best starting five in baseball? Absolutely.
Closer Joe Borowski, R:
Borowski was great once he inherited the closer role last May. A lack of
long-term experience has led to speculation that LaTroy Hawkins will take over
if he slips.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| W | L | PCT | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP | ||
| Greg Maddux (18) | 289 | 163 | .639 | 3968.2 | 2765 | 838 | 2.89 | 1.13 | |
| Jim Palmer (19) | 268 | 152 | .638 | 3948 | 2212 | 1311 | 2.86 | 1.18 | |
Obviously, Maddux doesn’t really need to make an argument
for the Hall of Fame. He probably could have retired 3 years ago and still made
it. In the comparison above, it’s clear that Maddux is the more dominating
pitcher, and the line of argument (as if the stats don’s tell enough) is the
eras in which the two players pitched. Palmer began his career in the mid-60’s,
which was the most pitching dominated era in the game’s history, while Maddux
did most of his work in the 90’s. Maddux’s list of his ten most comparable
players has nine Hall of Famers on it. The other guy is Roger Clemens.
Fantasy Top 5:
The Bottom Line:
I must confess I’m confused about Walt Jocketty and the rest of the St. Louis front office. They have a generally winning tradition and the money and fan base to support it, and yet they really did nothing to address their needs during the winter. They still have one of the best hitting and fielding teams in the National League, but they also have big pitching problems from top to bottom. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Astros both made tremendous off-season improvements, taking a three-team race down to two with the Cardinals being the odd team out. Career years from the starting rotation puts the Cardinals right the playoff mix with the Cubs and Astros, but that seems very unlikely considering there proven starters have injury issues and their other starters are not proven. It’s not impossible for them to compete, in fact, they probably will until mid-August or so, but their well-rounded competitors will leave them looking up from third place.
Line Up:
The line up is largely the same as last year’s edition; itt
was the best in the NL. They could be the best again, but the Astros, Cubs, and
Phillies have all taken a step forward. Regardless of which team finishes as
“the best,” the Cardinal bats are scary.
Pitching:
As always, health is the key. If this bunch can stay
healthy and effective, we’ll have a quality three-team race like the 2002 AL
West. But the Cardinals seem to have some bad luck when it comes to pitching
health, and they’ll have to show they can stay healthy before this team gets the
kind of respect Josh Melton would like.
Closer Jason Isringhausen, R:
When he came back from injuries, he was as effective as ever: 2.36 ERA and 41
strikeouts in 42 innings.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | BA | OPS | |
| Albert Pujols (3) | 1771 | 367 | 591 | 114 | 381 | 8 | 220 | .334 | 1.025 |
| Joe DiMaggio (3*) | 1857 | 412 | 615 | 107 | 432 | 13 | 147 | .331 | .941 |
Normally, I prefer to use a player with 10 or more years of
experience, and the Cardinals have some players that qualify, but I just
couldn’t pass up on this one. It’s not necessary to give this one deep analysis
since Pujols is only 23 and a lot can still happen. But consider the list of
the ten players most similar to Pujols through age 23. It contains eight Hall
of Famers (DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Joe Medwick, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson,
Orlando Cepeda, Ted Williams, Stan Musial), one current player (Vladimir
Guerrero), and Hal Trosky who somehow never even made the All-Star team. He did
finish in the top ten in MVP voting twice, including 1936 when he hit .343 on
216 hits, scored 124 runs, with 42 homers and 162 RBI. Judging from the list,
Pujols has about a 90% chance of becoming a Hall of Famer.
Fantasy Top 5:
The Bottom Line:
The Reds are an interesting bunch. They have a decent looking offense if everybody can stay healthy. They have no pitching. They’re in a division of extremes that features three of the best teams in NL and the two worst. If everything worked out well they could finish as high as third, but if things go sour they could end up last. I believe they’ll be somewhere in the middle; more like fourth place, a little below .500. In my opinion, the Reds are the best built team in the NL Central as far as the future is concerned. If they can stay healthy and intact, they could become a contender as soon as 2005, but they have a history of bad management decisions that might destroy the team before they have a chance to succeed. None of that changes the fact that they’ll finish in fourth place for 2004.
Line Up:
Offensively the Reds are close to making a turn around.
They’ve been unofficially rebuilding for a few years now, but they’re saddled
with Ken Griffey’s huge contract and it’s really keeping them from doing what
they need to do. In the mean time, the line up might be good if all the pieces
fall into place, which hasn’t happened in Cincinnati since 1996.
Pitching:
This has been a trouble area for the Reds for quite some
time, but they seem to be turning the corner. They’ve recognized their
inability to develop pitching, so they started making trades to get young
pitchers from other teams. Maybe the Rangers could learn a thing or two.
Closer Danny Graves, R: If
the Reds can give him some games to save he will be just fine.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | BA | OPS | |
| Ken Griffey (14) | 7079 | 1271 | 2080 | 481 | 1384 | 177 | 940 | .294 | .941 |
| Frank Robinson (14*) | 6538 | 1236 | 1977 | 383 | 1169 | 160 | 867 | .302 | .947 |
In my opinion, this comparison really puts Griffey’s
accomplishments in perspective. Despite being almost worthless the last three
years, he’s still way better than a guy like Frank Robinson in the same span of
time. Many people will probably disagree, but Griffey has already done enough
to merit Hall of Fame status.
Fantasy Top 5:
The Bottom Line:
There will be only one consolation for the Bucs in 2004; at least they’re not the Brewers. Much like the Brewers, the Pirates are starting their 10+ year rebuilding plan all over again. They dumped two of their three best players last year when they sent Brian Giles to the Padres and Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs. They’re doing there best to move Jason Kendall too, so don’t expect anything better than a fifth place finish for the 2004 Pirates. Like the Brewers, the Pirates will have a hard time competing in 2004. Unlike the Brewers, they do have some good prospects to build around, but fifth place is where they’ll be at the end of the year.
Line Up:
They did sign a few guys to give them some pop and make
them a bit more respectable. Basically the moves just solidified their position
in fifth instead of sixth.
Pitching:
Perhaps the Pittsburgh organization is abusing young
pitchers. They’ve had a number of good arms come up in the past five years, but
none of them seem to last a whole year. Maybe Tommy John surgeries are cheaper
when purchased in bulk.
Closer Jose Mesa, R: He
always finds a way to rack up some saves, but it’s never pretty.
| Remarkably Similar | |||||||||
| AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | BA | OPS | |
| Jason Kendall (8) | 4072 | 620 | 1226 | 64 | 420 | 129 | 394 | .304 | .807 |
| Thurman Munson (7*) | 3750 | 496 | 1082 | 86 | 491 | 40 | 332 | .289 | .760 |
Fantasy Top 5: