Odd Thoughts

American League East Preview

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

2004 New York Yankees Preview

The Bottom Line:
It’s hard to tell if the Yankees shocked the world or if it was just more of the same when they acquired Alex Rodriguez. Either way, their overall improvement, based on that move, is really not that big. Sure they’ll win their division, but they were going to do that anyway. I could go on, but the gist of it is the Yankees will be the 2004 AL East champs. I know the Red Sox look good, but tell me what’s wrong with this bunch right here. Only injuries or a raging fire sale from Steinbrenner can keep the Yankees from finishing 2004 on the top of the AL East.

Line Up:

I could play second base and bat ninth and this would still
be the best offense in baseball.

1. Kenny Lofton, CF: Lofton has become a
   well-traveled player the last few years, but there’s really no reason for
   teams to treat him as a spare part.  He won’t steal 75 bases in a season
   again, but he still hits well, still steals bases at a top notch level, and
   is among the smartest base runners in the game.  I expect he could return to
   All-Star form in New York.


2. Derek Jeter, SS: Non-Yankee fans seem to think
   Jeter had a bad 2003, but it really wasn’t.  Despite missing eight weeks
   because of a freak shoulder injury, he took a few weeks to get back in the
   groove and had a stellar second half.  He’s poised for a career year.


3. Alex Rodriguez, 3B: A-Rod is in a better team
   situation and a better line up, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be
   better than he has already been the past three years.  Yankee Stadium is not
   nearly as friendly to hitters as The Ballpark in Arlington, and that will
   have an effect, but the guys batting around him are better.  I expect his
   home runs to decrease slightly, while his batting average, runs scored, and
   RBI’s increase.  He won’t have any trouble making the move to third.


4. Jason Giambi, 1B: Why Giambi and not Sheffield
   in the #4 hole?  Simply because he’s a left-handed bat to break up A-Rod and
   Sheffield.  Obviously he’s a good fit, and he’ll be hard-pressed to keep
   from improving on his dismal batting average from 2003.  Playing defense
   everyday could be a problem.


5. Gary Sheffield, RF: Sheffield has a good
   reputation and that will be enough to scare opposing pitchers into giving
   Giambi pitches to hit, but Sheffield has never had a great year in his first
   season on a new team.  He’s also trying to make a move to the AL, on a team
   where he’s not even one of the three best players.  He won’t stink, but he
   won’t finish among the best overall hitters in the game as he did in 2003.


6. Bernie Williams, DH: Bernie will play DH to
   help protect a body that is beginning to betray him.  It should suit him
   well, plus he no longer has the pressure of being a huge run producer.  If
   he plays all season it will be an improvement on last year.


7. Hideki Matsui, LF: Matsui has gotten a bad rap
   as various experts and critics feel he did not live up to his billing when
   he came over from Japan.  Being the starting center fielder for the All-Star
   team was a bit of a stretch, but he was a quality hitter overall and his
   power numbers should improve after a year of experience.


8. Jorge Posada, C: Posada had a career year last
   year.  He won’t repeat it, but only because he’s further down in the line
   up.  He’ll be fine though and still be the best hitting catcher in the
   American League.


9. Enrique Wilson, 2B:  He’ll be a huge defensive
   improvement over Soriano, and it really doesn’t matter if he hits.  Sheesh,
   in this line up, I could be the second baseman and bat ninth and it wouldn’t
   matter.

Pitching: 

This is far from the best rotation the Yankees have had. 
Mussina is the only starter for which there is nothing to worry about.

1. Mike Mussina, R: Mussina has never won a Cy
   Young Award, and probably never will, but he’s one of the most consistently
   great pitchers of the last 10 years.  You can go ahead and pencil him in for
   his usual 18 wins and 3.25 ERA.


2. Javier Vazquez, R: Vazquez could be the
   Yankee’s most significant off-season acquisition.  If he had been with them
   last year, he might have beaten out Roy Halladay for the AL Cy Young Award. 
   It remains to be seen whether he can bear the pressure of New York (Jeff
   Weaver), but if he can, he’ll be right there with Pedro, Schilling, and
   Halladay as the best pitchers in the AL.


3. Kevin Brown, R: If he’s healthy he’ll be fine,
   but health is always a concern for this oft-injured 37-year-old.


4. Jose Contreras, R: Like Brown, Contreras is a
   big question mark – not because of injury, but just because he didn’t do
   well as a starter last year.  But for this team, he’ll win 15 games if he
   can keep his ERA below 6.00.


5. Jon Lieber, R: Lieber hasn’t pitched since mid
   2002 after he was shut down for Tommy John surgery.  That surgery has had a
   pretty good success rate of late, and would is that he’ll be as effective as
   ever.

Closer Mariano Rivera, R: People say he’s lost a
step, but I didn’t notice that last October.

Those are Vance’s career numbers and he is a Hall of Famer. 
It appears that Brown is slightly better.  Brown needs one more great season to
solidify a place for himself in the Hall.  Clearly though, Mussina is the best
of this bunch.  He already has slightly better numbers than the others, and he’s
done it in three fewer seasons.  When Clemens, Maddux, and Glavine retire,
Mussina will bear the torch as the active Hall of Famer.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Alex Rodriguez


2. Jason Giambi


3. Javier Vazquez


4. Mariano Rivera


5. Jorge Posada

2004 Boston Red Sox Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Red Sox made some huge moves during the winter, and it could really pay off if they get to play in October. Some people think they’ll win the East, and nobody denies that they’re legitimate wild card contenders, but in a division where every team made significant upgrades it won’t be as easy as it was last year. Please allow me remind you (please read this in your best Jim Rome voice) they are the Red Sox. They’re the Daffy Duck to New York’s Bugs Bunny. I wish it wasn’t so, but I’m afraid it is. They do look really good. They look good enough to win any division in baseball. But the Yankees are a mountainous obstacle, and the Red Sox have not shown themselves able to overcome it. As a result, I see the Red Sox likely making the playoffs, but only as the wild card team

Line Up:

2003’s best offense will still be good in 2004, but not
nearly as good as they were last year.  You just cannot expect to have a line up
where all of your roll players have career years.

1. Johnny Damon, CF: he’s one of the few returning
   members from the 2003 team that could equal or exceed his numbers from last
   season.


2. Bill Mueller, 3B: There’s no way he can repeat
   as the AL batting champ.  He’s decent hitter and a great fielder, but .285
   with 15 homers is more like it.


3. Nomar Garciaparra, SS: Unlike most of the
   roster in 2003, Nomar did not have a career year in 2003; it was a great
   year, but he’s had better, and he can be better again.  If he can be happy
   after being shopped around all winter he could return to his days of hitting
   .350. 


4. Manny Ramirez, LF: Manny was completely exposed
   last October, and after the embarrassment of being put on unconditional
   waivers just weeks after the World Series, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll
   give a 100% effort.  He’ll be good, but 2004 is likely to be a career year
   for Manny.


5. David Ortiz, DH: Ortiz’s numbers are for real. 
   He’s a legitimate 30 to 40 homer guy, with a knack for the clutch.  But
   he’ll still lead the team in strikeouts.


6. Trot Nixon, RF: Nixon looked good last year. 
   He probably won’t match those numbers, but he probably won’t fall too far
   away from them either.


7. Kevin Millar, 1B: Millar was solid and he will
   remain so.


8. Jason Varitek, C: He’s the best of the second
   tier catchers.


9. Pokey Reese, 2B: Reese’s glove will more than
   make up for Todd Walker’s bat. 

Pitching:

While Kim looks questionable as the #5 guy, this is the
best rotation in the American League.

1. Pedro Martinez, R: Pete’s in a contract year,
   so look for all those little ailments that cause him to miss starts (like
   sore throats) to miraculously disappear.  He might not be the 1999 Pedro,
   but he’ll be close.


2. Curt Schilling, R: There no reason to believe
   Schilling won’t return to his 2002 form, despite suffering from freak
   injuries last year.  Schilling is the only guy to be clearly among the best
   five pitchers in the game and still not be the ace on his own team.


3. Derek Lowe, L: Probably somewhere between his
   breakout 2002 and his disappointing 2003.  He sure came up big against
   Oakland.


4. Tim Wakefield, R: He’s the only guy in my
   entire major league preview that will still be pitching in 2030.


5. Byung-Hyun Kim, R: This is a huge experiment
   that could have a big payoff or be a total disaster.  Fantasy owners beware.

Closer Keith Foulke, R:
Getting the 2003 AL Saves leader is a huge improvement over the
closer-by-committee program they had at the beginning of ’03.  There’s something
about him though that makes me feel he’s not really among the premier closers in
the game.

You can usually find few objections to listing Koufax among
the greatest pitchers of all time, and that’s true.  He choose to end his career
early (due to arthritis), but he went out on top (27 and 5 in his final year). 
But I’m here to tell you that Pedro is even better.  Koufax compiled those
numbers in the most pitching dominated era in baseball history in the best
pitcher’s park, while Pedro has pitched in an era of huge offense in a great
hitter’s park.  The more I look at the numbers, the less debatable it becomes.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Pedro Martinez


2. Curt Schilling


3. Nomar Garciaparra


4. Manny Ramirez


5. Keith Foulke

2004 Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Bottom Line:
After a 2003 season in which the Jays had one of the best hitting teams in baseball, they managed to keep that unit intact, plus they added several good arms to support Roy Halladay. Every year the Jays seem to be contenders during the first half only to fade in the second. While I don’t expect them to climb out of third place this year, they could, and they should at least be playing meaningful games into August. I like this team. They look better than last year, and the slightest slip on the part of the Yankees or the Red Sox could open the door for the Jays to become wild card contenders. But a slip in Boston or New York is unlikely, leaving the Jays with a rather impressive won/lost record for a third place team.

Line Up:

The Blue Jays retained all the parts of their offense that
finish second to the Red Sox as the best run-producers in the AL.  They could
surpass the Red Sox this year, since many of their players are on the way up or
in their primes.

1. Reed Johnson, RF: He’s not atypical leadoff
   hitter, but he’s got the power to hit 20 homers, the speed to steal 15
   bases, and the ability to maintain a .350+ on base percentage.  He’s batting
   leadoff because the Jays don’t really have a better option.


2. Frank Catalanotto, LF: Health is the only thing
   keeping him from being a .315 hitter every year.


3. Vernon Wells, CF: He followed his break out
   2002 with a stellar 2003, and the best is yet to come.  He’s the real deal
   and the next big thing.


4. Carlos Delgado, 1B: He had the best first half
   of anybody in baseball last year but an average second half that still
   resulted in fantastic overall numbers.  You have to take him any way you can
   get him, but a more balanced attack would benefit the team.


5. Eric Hinske, 3B: While his batting average fell
   to .243, he still led the AL with 45 doubles.  Imagine how sharp this
   offense will be when he hits like we know he can.


6. Josh Phelps, DH: He contributed 20 homers last
   year in 119 games.  The Jays believe he’ll be a star with 40+ homer
   ability.  Much like the comment on Hinske, imagine how good they’ll be if he
   does.


7. Greg Myers, C: After several years as
   journeyman catcher, Myers broke out with a .307 average and 15 homers.  I
   just don’t believe he’ll do it again.


8. Orlando Hudson, 2B: Hudson, and shortstop
   Woodward just have to catch the ball.  It really doesn’t matter if they
   hit.  They combined for a .265 average, 16 homers and 102 RBI’s and that’s
   plenty.


9. Chris Woodward, SS

Pitching:

The Blue Jays, much like every other team in the division,
spent some money during the winter.  They made sure to maintain their excellent
hitting and focused on the pitching.  It could be enough to give them some
meaningful games in.

1. Roy Halladay, R: All of Halladay’s numbers in
   his Cy Young year are great, but how about this pair: 204 strikeouts, 32
   walks.  He’s here to stay.


2. Miguel Batista, R: With the kind of support the
   Blue Jays can give, Batista’s 3.54 ERA would have been good enough to turn
   his 10 wins in 2003 into 17 or 18.  Sheesh, Corey Lidle won 12 for them with
   a 5.74.


3. Ted Lilly, L: He’s solid enough and will eat
   innings.


4. Pat Hentgen, R: After falling off the baseball
   radar for almost two years, Hentgen a strong second half in Baltimore.  He
   looked like the guy he used to be in his first go round with Toronto.


5. Josh Towers, R: Looked good down the stretch.

Closer Aquilino Lopez, R:
Lopez filled the closer role decently after Kelvim Escobar moved to the
rotation.  He did a good enough job, but his half-season in the role is not
enough for the Jays to feel sure he’s the answer.  They brought in Justin Speier
from Colorado just in case, but the role is Lopez’s to lose.    

McCovey, in case you don’t know, is a Hall of Fame first
baseman from the Giants and a member of the 500 home run club.  His numbers
listed above are from the first twelve seasons of his career.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Roy Halladay


2. Vernon Wells


3. Carlos Delgado


4. Eric Hinske


5. Ted Lilly

2004 Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Orioles will have the most improved offense in baseball from last season to this, but they seem to have forgotten that they have to pitch every other half-inning. The front office, feeling liberated from Albert Belle’s contract, went out and spent money just to be spending it. Unfortunately, it won’t improve their position in the standings. They’ll be right where they’ve been for a while now: fourth place. The AL East dilemma will curse the Orioles again, and until the Yankees fall apart, this division will be a battle for second. This year for the Orioles, it will be a battle between fourth and fifth.

Line Up:

The Orioles spent a lot of money
bolstering their line up, and it should result in a good run-scoring bunch, with
a good combination of speed, power, experience, and youth.  Unfortunately,
they’re still only the fourth best offense in the division.

1. Melvin Mora, 3B: Mora had a great first half,
   but injuries slowed him down.  He’s moving to third base for the first time
   in his career, though that probably won’t be a problem for him.  He seems to
   me to be more suited as a super-sub rather than an everyday player, but if
   2003 was no fluke – mind you, it very well could have been – he’ll play
   every day.


2. Jerry Hairston, 2B: Hairston missed over 100
   games last year, but he did manage to steal 14 bases in 58 games.  He’s
   reported to be healthy, but the second base spot is by no means his.  Brian
   Roberts needs to find a place to play too.


3. Miguel Tejada, SS: I expect a career season fro
   Tejada.  He’s in a better line up and a smaller ballpark. 


4. Jay Gibbons, RF: Gibbons is also poised for a
   career year.  He’s reaching his prime and has real line up protection for
   the first time in his career.  You probably didn’t notice that he drove in
   100 runs last year.


5. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B: Raffy’s back for his
   second tour with the O’s.  He’s not going to bat .320 and hit 47 homers
   anymore, but there’s nothing wrong with .280 and 35.  He hasn’t shown any
   signs of slowing down.


6. Javy Lopez, C: Lopez is an improvement, but
   there’s no way – even in the smaller park – that he’ll come close to his
   monster 2003 numbers.  He’s not much of a defensive contributor either.


7. Larry Bigbie, LF: Bigbie was great in his
   second half call up.  With the retooled Baltimore line up, he’s in a
   position to develop without pressure.  He’s 30-homer guy in the making.


8. David Segui, DH: This is where Brian Roberts
   will be when Segui goes out for the season with another injury.


9. Luis Matos, CF: Like Bigbie, Matos was
   impressive in his mid-season call up, batting .303 with 15 stolen bases in
   109 games.  He could end up as the leadoff man before the season ends.

Pitching:

In their huge winter spending spree, Peter Angelos forgot
that he might need some pitching to win.  He does have some good young arms, and
he did bring back Sidney Ponson, but he would have been better off spending his
Lopez or Palmeiro money on a quality pitcher.

1. Sidney Ponson, R: This was really a good
   overall deal for the Orioles: Ponson finally paid off, they traded him to
   San Francisco for a great prospect in Kurt Ainsworth, and then managed to
   resign him.  He’s a decent pitcher, but not a true ace.


2. Rodrigo Lopez, R: Lopez fell far from his 2002
   Rookie of the Year campaign.  It remains to be seen whether he can turn it
   around.


3. Kurt Ainsworth, R: He could be their ace of the
   future.  He might have been already had he not been sidelined with injury
   for most of the second half.  He seems like a good bet to me.


4. Omar Daal, L: Daal has been an on again/off
   again type of starter – mostly off.


5. Eric Dubose, L: Dubose made 10 starts last year
   and kept his ERA under 4.00.

Closer Jorge Julio, R: One
of those guys that will give you a heart attack but seems to pull through in the
end, kind of like Jose Mesa.

Those are Campanella’s career numbers.  His career was cut
short by a car accident that left him paralyzed, and his tragic fate (and the
fact that he played for the Dodgers) could be the reason he waltzed right into
the Hall of Fame without a debate.  At this point, Lopez is really not in his
class, as it takes him 12 years to stack up to Campy’s 10, plus Campanella had
more than one great season (He won the NL MVP three times).  Lopez could still
turn himself into a Hall of Fame candidate, but it will take at least three more
years similar to his incredible 2003 to do it.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Miguel Tejada


2. Javy Lopez


3. Jay Gibbons


4. Rafael Palmeiro


5. Jorge Julio

2004 Tampa Bay Devil Rays Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Devil Rays look like a team moving in the right direction, well, at least they look good on offense. They’re in a position where the passing of another season means experience and improvement. Their farm system, however, is yet to produce a quality pitcher. Despite the teams overall improvement, every other team in the AL East improved too, leaving the Devil Rays in the same spot they’ve been in since they started: last place. The Rays should be better in 2004. They could even get out of last place if everything clicks, but the improvement of the Orioles and Blue Jays means the entire division should end the same way it has for the last six years, which leaves the Rays in the cellar.

Line Up:

The Devil Rays added a few new components (mostly
ex-Mariners, thanks to Lou Piniella).  They have some good prospects.  Perhaps
what Selig should do is realign the AL and put the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays
in the other AL divisions, since the current system allows the Yankees and Red
Sox to run rampant.

1. Carl Crawford, LF: Crawford had a great rookie
   season that included a league-leading 55 stolen bases.  He hit a respectable
   .281, but his .309 on base percentage just doesn’t cut in the leadoff role. 
   


2. Rocco Baldelli, CF: Has the same plate
   discipline problems that Crawford does, but the experts believe he will
   develop into a .320 hitter.  If you can remember the two good years from
   Mike Greenwell, Baldelli is envisioned as a guy like him that also steals
   bases.


3. Aubrey Huff, DH: Huff has quietly improved each
   of the last three seasons to the point that he posted a .311 average with
   198 hits, 34 home runs, and 107 RBI.  He’ll be 28 this year, and the best
   may be yet to come.


4. Jose Cruz Jr., RF: Cruz has turned into a gold
   glove defender in right field.  Piniella believes he can make his bat return
   to his 30/30 days.


5. Tino Martinez, 1B: Another Lou Piniella
   project.  The best part is that the Cardinals are paying the bill.  Martinez
   could end up sharing time with Fred McGriff, who’s in search of his 500^th
   home run.


6. Julio Lugo, SS: Lugo turned into the guy the
   Astros had been dreaming off last year.  Unfortunately for them, it happened
   in Tampa.  He hit a shocking .275 with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases in
   119 games.  That’s not exactly A-Rod, but those are really decent numbers
   for a shortstop.


7. Toby Hall, C: This is where the Tampa offense
   fall apart, but hey, they’ve nevr gone six-deep before.  Hall is making his
   third attempt at becoming the player we were told he’d be.


8. Geoff Blum, 3B: He plays good defense.


9. Rey Sanchez, 2B: Ditto.

Note on the Tampa Bench:
Piniella already has two guys on the field that play multiple positions (Blum,
Sanchez).  Huff can play outfield, first, or third, Damien Rolls plays outfield
and third, and Robert Fick can catch, play first or outfield.  As a result, the
line up could be different every day.  While that’s not necessarily a good
thing, it does give the team incredible flexibility in case of an injury.

Pitching:

There’s still a lot of work to do
here, but Lou brought in more ex-Mariners to fill the gaps.  He has a few good
prospects, but the following six guys are more likely to elicit a “What?” than a
“Wow.”

1. Victor Zambrano, R: He managed to eat a lot of
   innings and have a record over .500 (12/10), but his 106/132 walk to
   strikeout ratio is abysmal.


2. Jeremi Gonzalez, R: Has the same strengths and
   weaknesses as Zambrano.


3. Doug Waechter, R: He was impressive in a late
   season call up.  I watched him shut out the M’s.  He has impeccable control
   and could be either the ace of the future or a Yankee of the future.


4. Damien Moss, L: Moss started off well in San
   Francisco, but was total bust in Baltimore.  Like the top two guys in the
   rotation, Moss has serious control issues.


5. John Halama, L: Will once again get the chance
   to start, but he may have already had his best days in Seattle.

Closer Danys Baez, R: He
was signed away from Cleveland, and has the closer title for now, but Lance
Carter is still in the pen, and Mike Williams has been invited to camp.

No one disputes Reggie’s place in the Hall of Fame, yet
McGriff is usually thought of as the first guy with 500+ home runs that will not
make it.  I know Reggie went on to have at least one more good year after the 18
seasons that are reflected above and McGriff appears to be finished, but those
numbers suggest that McGriff is actually the better player. Unfortunately, it appears
as though McGriff will be released by the Devil Rays before the season starts.
He could be finished.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Aubrey Huff


2. Rocco Baldelli


3. Carl Crawford


4. Jose Cruz Jr.


5. Toby Hall

National League east Preview

A changing of the guard.

2004 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Bottom Line:
Ed Wade and the fine folks in the Phillie organization have built a great team just in time for the opening of their new ballpark. Whether they’re good or not, we should all support the Phillies just for getting rid of Veteran Stadium. As if that’s not enough, they’re finally going to do it: the Phillies are going to unseat the Braves as the NL East Champions and make their first postseason appearance since Mitch Williams faced Joe Carter in the 1993 World Series. I believe that the Cubs and Astros are actually better teams than the Phillies, but given the weakness of the NL East, they have a good shot at finishing with the best record in the National League.

Line Up:

For several years the now, the Phils have planned to open
their new ballpark with a powerful line up, and the pieces appear to be in
place.  The line up will be largely the same as last year, but they’re expecting
Marlon Byrd to emerge as a force in the leadoff spot, Pat Burrell to bounce back
to his 2002 form, and they’ve realized the Placido Polanco is too good to keep
out of the line up.

1. Marlon Byrd, CF: Byrd hit .303 with a decent
   enough OBP (.366) in his first full season.  The experts have been telling
   for three years that Byrd will be an impact player, and 2004 will be the
   year he makes the impact.


2. Placido Polanco, 2B: Polanco had excellent
   numbers across the board last year.  Good enough that had he been the
   regular from the beginning of the year, he would rank right up there with
   Marcus Giles among NL second basemen.  He’s an All-Star in waiting.


3. Bobby Abreu, RF: He’s yet to become truly
   great, but he has been consistently very, very good over the past few
   years.  He’s a true five-tool guy.


4. Jim Thome, 1B: I wouldn’t worry about his
   damaged middle finger.  He’ll be ready to go by opening day, and he’s a good
   bet to repeat as NL home run champ.


5. Mike Lieberthal, C: As far as good hitting
   catchers go, he’s just a notch below the elite guys, but he’s better than
   everybody else.


6. Pat Burrell, 1B: There’s no explanation for
   Burrell’s sudden inability to make contact.  The Phillies will contend
   without him, but they could run away with it if he hits like he did in 2002.


7. Jimmy Rollins, SS: If he could just improve his
   plate discipline he’d be one of the best shortstops in baseball.  Until then
   he’s just a poor (and I mean very poor) man’s Edgar Renteria.


8. David Bell, 3B: This spot belongs to Bell right
   now, but if he stumbles out of the gate, look for Bowa to move Polanco to
   third and put rookie Chase Utley in the line up at second.

Pitching:

The Phillies made all the right moves during the winter to
give themselves one of the best pitching staffs, top to bottom, in the National
League.  I haven’t talked much about middle relief and set up guys in these
previews, but the group in Philadelphia is worth mentioning.  They kept Rheal
Cormier and his gaudy numbers (8 and 0, 1.70 ERA), and they added Roberto
Hernandez and Tim Worrell to go along with the best closer in baseball not named
Gagne.

1. Kevin Millwood, R: His second half slump last
   year killed their chances.  He needs to be consistent from day one.  He
   started 7 and 1; he ended 7 and 11.


2. Randy Wolf, L: If Wolf can reduce his walks
   he’ll be one of the best in the NL.


3. Vincente Padilla, R: The experts complain that
   Padilla is only five games over .500 the last two years, but that’s really
   misleading.  He went 14 and 12 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.  The Brave’s
   Russ Ortiz had a 3.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but finished 21 and 7.  A pitchers
   win record is really not a great tool for measuring his effectiveness.


4. Eric Milton, L: He missed most of last season,
   but he looked good in three starts at the end of the year.


5. Brett Myers, R: Myers could ultimately be the
   best pitcher on the staff.

Closer Billy Wagner, L: 44
saves, 1.78 ERA, 105 strikeouts in 86 innings pitched.  That says it all.

Kiner is in the Hall already and Thome will be.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Jim Thome


2. Bobby Abreu


3. Billy Wagner


4. Randy Wolf


5. Kevin Millwood

2004 Atlanta Braves Preview

The Bottom Line:
I’m finally going to do it: the Braves will not win the NL East in 2004. It’s been a long time, it’s been a good run, but it’s over. What’s worse is that the new Time Warner ownership is not nearly as interested in keeping the team good, as Ted Turner was. Regardless of how much you hate Turner, he was good at taking care of his team. So here’s the prediction: the Braves will finish second, even though they should only finish third, and they’ll compete for the wild card, but they’ll fall short and take an early vacation. It was fun, but I think the Braves will have to go back to the bottom before they get back to the top.

Line Up:

The Braves lost their offensive leaders in almost every
category when Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez bolted for greener pastures in the
AL East.  They also lost Robert Fick and Vinny Castilla.  That quartet will be
impossible to replace, and the Braves know it, so they’re making a move toward
youth.  Obviously, they won’t be nearly so threatening this year.

1. Rafael Furcal, SS: Furcal finally got a chance
   to show us what he can do by staying healthy all year.  Provided he can
   repeat the health end of the deal, there’s no reason he can’t repeat his
   fantastic offense too.


2. Marcus Giles, 2B: Giles had a huge breakthrough
   year in 2003, but he won’t have Gary Sheffield hitting behind him this
   year.  I expect he’ll still be among the best second basemen in baseball –
   even All-Star caliber – but I doubt he’ll match his 2003 output.


3. Chipper Jones, LF: He’s no longer a perennial
   MVP candidate, but he’s still very, very good.  The gut says he’ll be better
   than last year.


4. Andruw Jones, CF: He’s always been good, but a
   lack of plate discipline has kept him from being a true super star, thus
   far.  It seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 26 – he’s not
   even in his prime.  On a side, we’ll finally get to see who is the best
   defender in center field in the whole game this year, as Jones will face off
   with Mike Cameron 20, or so, times this year.


5. J.D. Drew, RF: He can be good if he’s healthy,
   which he hasn’t done in his career.  It’s put up or shut up time.


6. Johnny Estrada, C: Estrada, the principle
   acquisition for the Braves in Kevin Millwood deal last year, is finally
   getting a long over-due chance to play every day.  He’s been stuck behind
   Mike Lieberthal and Javy Lopez for three years.  His averages at AAA were
   phenomenal (.328 AVG, .393 OBP, .494 SLG). 


7. Adam LaRoche, 1B: No Major League experience. 
   He hit .290 with 20 homers at AAA Richmond.  46-year-old Julio Franco is
   still around to back him up.


8. Mark DeRosa, 3B: DeRosa played every position
   except catcher last year, and now he’ll get his chance.  He should be at
   least decent.  On a side, I like the idea of batting him second and moving
   everyone after him down a notch, giving the Braves a 3-4-5 of Giles, Jones,
   and Jones.

Pitching:

The era of the great Braves staffs is over.  Only Smoltz
remains, and he’s the closer.  We’re about to see if Leo Mazzone was the
pitching coach or if it was really Tom Galvine and Greg Maddux. 

1. Russ Ortiz, R: Somehow he won 21 games last
   year.  Trust me, it won’t happen again.


2. Mike Hampton, L: By the time the second half
   rolled around, Hampton looked like the guy that won 40 games in 1999 and
   2000.


3. Horacio Ramirez, L: Greg Maddux said Ramirez is
   the real deal.  That’s good enough for me.


4. John Thomson, R: The journeyman pitcher
   mastered his curve in the middle of 2003 and had a great second half in
   Texas.  It could get even better for him in Atlanta.


5. Andy Pratt, L: Struck out 161 in 156 innings in
   AAA – that’s all I know.

Remarkably Similar:

It was this comparison that made we want to take a look at
a comparison from every team.  Eckersley’s numbers as a starter are complete,
but as a closer I used only his first three years.  At this point, Smoltz was a
better starter, while Eck was a better closer.  I know Smoltz has more time, but
Eckersley’s first three years as a closer were not his best.  Not that he had
bad years, but he had two seasons after the time reflected above in which he was
absolutely dominant.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. John Smoltz


2. Chipper Jones


3. Andruw Jones


4. Marcus Giles


5. Mike Hampton

2004 Florida Marlins Preview

The Bottom Line:
What can you say? The 2003 Marlins shocked the world, and I’m happy they did, but there won’t be any October games in Miami this year. Many experts will predict the Marlins to finish first, and some will say second with a shot at the Wild Card, but the best I can do is give them third. Ultimately, the Marlins are on the right track. They should eventually take the torch from the Braves as the team to beat in the NL East, but it will be 2005 before the torch is truly theirs. All of that assumes Loria is committed to keeping his young guys around. If he does he’ll have a big payoff. But in 2004 they’re really going to miss Pudge

Line Up:

This group of hitters is not quite the caliber that the
2003 Champs were, but they could still be very good.  They feel that a healthy
year from Mike Lowell and continued improvement from Miguel Cabrera will give
them the pop they need.  It’s also possible they’ll get some production from Hee
Seop Choi and Ramon Castro – neither of which has played a full season, and
neither of which can replace Derek Lee and Ivan Rodriguez.

1. Juan Pierre, CF: Pierre is the premier leadoff
   hitter in the National League and is rivaled only by Ichiro and Johnny Damon
   throughout the entire game.  Everything you want in a leadoff hitter, he
   does exceptionally well: .305 batting average, more walks than strike outs
   (55 to 35, producing a .361 OBP), and a league-leading 65 steals.  In my
   opinion, he’s the best player on the team.


2. Luis Castillo, 2B: He’d be leading off on most
   other teams, and he has the tools to do it.  His steals were down a bit last
   year, but the Castillo/Pierre combination is most definitely the fastest
   one-two punch in baseball, and both hit over .300.


3. Miguel Cabrera, RF: He could be a stud, but it
   seems awfully early to slip him into the #3 spot in the order.  His swing
   reminds me of A-Rod.


4. Mike Lowell, 3B: He led the team in home runs
   (32) and RBI (105) despite missing 22 games in September.  He’s not the
   glove man that Scott Rolen is, but he’s probably a better hitter. 


5. Jeff Conine, LF: Between Baltimore and Florida,
   Conine hit 20 homers and drove in 95.  He does that every year, and nobody
   seems to notice.  He’s a great situational hitter too.  I bet you didn’t
   know he lead the majors in sacrifice flies last year with 13.


6. Alex Gonzalez, SS: He’s a little better than
   the other Alex Gonzalez, but they are very similar.  They have some power
   and seem to get clutch hits, but they also have low averages and high
   strikeouts.


7. Hee Seop Choi, 1B: The Cubs gave up on Choi,
   but I don’t think that was fair.  I’m also not convinced he’ll be a super
   star.  Anyway, the Marlins are willing to give him a try, but it seems
   they’re not convinced either: they signed Wil Cordero just in case he flops.


8. Ramon Castro, C: He only had 53 at bats last
   year, but if he could have maintained his numbers over the course of the
   season, this is what it would look like: .283 average, 450 at bats, 42 home
   runs.  In the real world, he’ll be somewhere between the 5 home runs he did
   hit, and the 42 home runs he would have hit had been able to maintain his
   one every 10.3 at bats.  For real though, he could be pretty good.

Pitching:

Great pitching won them a World Series title, but I believe
they just caught lightening in a bottle for September and October.  I’m not
saying this is a bad bunch – they really are good – they’re just not quite as
good as they looked last October.  If you’re reading this, let me know how many
of you saw Josh Beckett get drafted too high in your fantasy league.  Their
former ace A.J. Burnett should return from Tommy John surgery in May or June.

1. Josh Beckett, R: I’ve been downing Beckett all
   winter.  I did it mostly as a response to people that feel like he’s done
   all he needs to do to be talked about with guys like Kerry Wood and Curt
   Schilling and others as one of the premier pitchers of the league.  In
   truth, it’s possible that he’ll become that.  It’s even possible that he’ll
   do it this year.  But he really does not deserve to be thought of that way. 
   When you consider the other NL pitchers that had similar situations (very
   little experience), it’s not hard to find guys that did better.  Dontrelle
   Willis was just as good.  Brandon Webb was better.  And then there’s Mark
   Prior . . .


2. Brad Penny, R: He’d be a solid #2 or #3 on most
   staffs, but he’s more of a super-duper inning eater than a lower-level ace.


3. Carl Pavano, R: Pavano has always pitched well
   when he’s healthy.  The reason you’ve never heard of him before is that he’s
   rarely been healthy, and when he was, it was in Montreal.


4. Dontrelle Willis, L: My gut tells me he’ll
   struggle – the weird delivery guys usually do in the second seasons.  Unless
   he develops another solid pitch, he’s better suited to be a closer.  He will
   become a valuable major league pitcher someday, but I’m not convinced it
   will happen in 2004.


5. Darren Oliver, L: He’s an unspectacular veteran
   signed to keep a spot warm for Burnett.

Closer Armando Benitez, R:
The experts act like Benitez was a flop in New York and Seattle, but the numbers
tell a different story.  He went 1 and 1 with a 2.66 ERA and 25 strikeouts in
23.2 innings.  That’s not that bad to me. 

Another poor comparison due to a lack of veteran players. 
Evers is in the Hall of Fame, but he probably shouldn’t be.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Juan Pierre


2. Mike Lowell


3. Josh Beckett


4. Miguel Cabrera


5. Armando Benitez

2004 New York Mets Preview

The Bottom Line:
Nobody will be fooled by the Mets again: they’re terrible. They’ve tried everything, and now they’re nothing more than the Bizarro-Yankees. Over the last three years, they’ve brought in high-priced free agents only to watch them fall apart and underachieve. They fired one high-profile manager (Bobby Valentine) and brought in another (Art Howe). At least the last few years people thought they’d be good, but this year it looks like a fourth place finish would be good, but a last place finish is much more likely. In the dream world, this line up could go the World Series, but in truth they won’t even contend. They have four unproven players (Matsui, Reyes, Phillips, and Wigginton), two offensive underachievers (Cameron and Cedeno), and two injury-riddled fading stars (Piazza and Floyd). That’s pretty much the same situation they’ve been in for the past three years. On the bright side, Mo Vaughn retired.

Line Up:

I don’t even know what to say about the Mets anymore (This
applies to the pitching too).  They’ve got some veterans.  They got some
rookies.  They’ve got a propensity for bad luck.

1. Jose Reyes, 2B: Everybody seems to think he’s
   the real deal.  He needs some plate discipline, but who doesn’t when they’re
   20?  He stole 39 bases in 111 games between the Mets and AAA Norfolk.


2. Kazuo Matsui, SS: It’s impossible to make a
   prediction about the latest Japanese super star, but I can assure you of
   this: he’ll be elected the NL’s starting shortstop for the All-Star game
   over a much more deserving Edgar Renteria.


3. Mike Piazza, C/1B: The strength of the entire
   line up depends on him.  Look for him to switch to first after he becomes
   the all-time leader in homers by a catcher.  His offensive numbers should
   improve when he makes the switch.


4. Cliff Floyd, LF: He’s still a force when he’s
   healthy.  He cut his season short last year to have surgery early so he
   could be ready to go for 2004.


5. Jason Phillips, 1B/C: He’ll play whatever
   Piazza isn’t playing.  He’s shown great plate discipline for a young player,
   and should see overall improvement after his first full season.


6. Mike Cameron, CF: Cameron’s defense is so good,
   it almost doesn’t matter if he hits.  But he’ll do that too.  His numbers
   should see a slight improvement just from leaving Seattle.


7. Karim Garcia/Shane Spencer, RF: A platoon
   situation for two slightly above average players.


8. Ty Wigginton, 3B: He had an unspectacular, but
   decent enough rookie season.  He should show slight improvement, but he
   doesn’t look like a future All-Star.

Pitching:

1. Tom Glavine, L: This is a make or break year
   for Glavine.  He’s in the middle of a big three-year contract and
   desperately needs to rebound from a terrible 2003 for which he has no
   excuses.  He’s chasing a milestone (300 wins), but if he’s as bad as last
   year, it will take him four more years to get there.


2. Al Leiter, L: He’s old, but he’s smart, and he
   still gets the job done.


3. Steve Trachsel, R: He’s really not as good as
   his 2003 numbers suggest.


4. Jae Seo, R: Looked good in his first season. 
   He was lucky to have a 3.82 ERA considering his poor walk ratio.


5. Scott Erickson, R: He’s trying to hang on.  You
   just never know.

Closer Braden Looper, R:
He lost his job with the Marlins last year.  The Mets hope he can be good enough
to do the job because they don’t have another option if he fails.   

I know Glavine had a bad year with no excuses, but he will
be a Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Mike Piazza


2. Cliff Floyd


3. Kazuo Matsui


4. Jose Reyes


5. Tom Glavine

2004 Montreal Expos Preview

The Bottom Line:
The names are different, but the song remains the same in Montreal: they can’t draw fans, they can’t raise payroll, they are supposed to be relocated by the beginning of next season, and their best players have been shipped off to the highest bidder. Despite all these problems, they continually do more with less. Manager Frank Robinson keeps them within smelling distance of the wild card until August. Unfortunately, the NL East is a little better this year, so climbing above fourth place will be practically impossible. The Expos have been among the best teams in all of baseball during the last fifteen years, at least from a management standpoint. They’ve provided quality players for several teams during that time, and unless new ownership and relocation comes along soon, we’ll probably be adding Vidro and Cabrera to the growing list of stars that the Expos have provided for the rest of the league.

Line Up:

Omar Minaya and Frank Robinson are doing the best they can,
but the current ownership group (Major League Baseball) is doing the best the
can to make sure this team stinks.  They’re a year late finding them a place to
move even though there are four ownership conglomerates around the country that
want to have them.  As a result, this is all you get.

1. Brad Wilkerson, LF: He’s not a typical leadoff
   hitter - strikes out a lot, but somehow he finds his way on base (.380
   OBP).  He got some pop too (19 home runs).


2. Jose Vidro, 2B: Still among the best second
   basemen in the game; still completely ignored in Montreal.


3. Nick Johnson, 1B: This guy will be a big, big
   star.  All the numbers are there.  Only nagging injuries have kept him from
   being the next Jason Giambi.


4. Carl Everett, RF: Everett could have been a
   Hall of Fame caliber player if he wasn’t such a head case.  It hard to say
   if he’ll produce from game to game, let alone season to season.


5. Orlando Cabrera, SS: He’s so good it’s almost
   impossible to believe he’s still an Expo.


6. Tony Batista, 3B: The final link in a very
   powerful infield.  He has the power to compare with Lowell, Rolen, and
   Chavez, but the comparison ends with his .235 batting average.


7. Endy Chavez, CF: A leadoff hitter with a .291
   OBP – yikes.  They should promote rookie Turrmel Sledge to take this spot. 
   On a side, what a great baseball name – Turrmell Sledge.


8. Brian Schneider, C: If you’re looking for the
   next Brad Ausmus, here he is.

Pitching:

Despite the loss of Javier Vazquez, the Expos still have
some good young arms.  Health is the key.

1. Livan Hernandez, R: He led the NL in innings
   (233.1) and complete games (8), and he won 15 games.  The pattern of his
   career suggests this is an aberration – not a trend.  By the way, what ever
   happened to his brother “El Duque”?  I can’t even find him on a list of
   non-roster invitees.


2. Tomo Ohka, R: Can be brilliant one minute and
   frustrating the next. 


3. Tony Armas Jr., R: Armas looked great in five
   starts last April, but went down with an injury.  It’s easy to see what he
   might do; it’s hard to say he will.


4. Claudio Vargas, R: He went 3 and 1 with a 1.43
   ERA in six starts in June, but succumbed to injury after that.  A rotator
   cuff problem is not the best way to start your pitching career.


5. Zach Day, R: Another promising rookie; another
   huge injury risk.

Closer Rocky Biddle, R:
The job appears to be his, but his second half struggles create a lot of
questions.   

This was the best I could do.

1. Nick Johnson


2. Jose Vidro


3. Orlando Cabrera


4. Livan Hernandez


5. Carl Everett

A Little Extra - All-Time Expo Stars for Other Teams:

C, Daren Fletcher: had three great years in Toronto.

1B, Brad Fullmer & Andres Galaraga:
Galaraga went to Colorado to win a batting title and later starred for the
Braves.

2B, Delino Deshields: had a few good years for LA
and Baltimore.

SS, Mark Grudzielanek: All-Star appearance in 1996
and he always seems to find a spot at the top of the order wherever he goes.

LF, Cliff Floyd & Moises Alou: Alou has obvious
accolades for Marlins, Astros, and Cubs.

CF, Rondell White & Marquis Grissom: Grissom starred
for the Braves in many a post season.

RF, Vladimir Guerrero & Larry Walker: Walker has won
several batting titles, Gold Gloves and an MVP in Colorado.

SP1, Randy Johnson: became Randy Johnson in Seattle
and Arizona

SP2, Pedro Martinez: became perennial Cy Young
candidate in Boston

SP3, Javier Vazquez: will win his first Cy Young in
2004 as a member of the Yankees

SP4, Jeff Fassero: had several good years for Seattle

SP5, Kirk Rueter: seven straight solid seasons in San
Francisco

Closer John Wetteland, won World Series MVP for
Yanks in 1996

Closer Ugueth Urbina, the league’s ace closer for
hire.

Closer Jeff Shaw, had five 30+ save season in
Cincinnati and LA

Here’s the combined accomplishments for the group:

1 All-Star Game MVP

1 NL MVP

2 hits leaders

2 stolen base leaders

2 home run leaders

2 RBI leaders

2 win leaders

3 saves leaders

3 Postseason series MVP’s

4 Batting Titles

8 Cy Young Awards

9 ERA titles

11 Strikeout leaders

13 Gold Gloves

39 Postseason Appearances

45 All-Star Appearances

National League West Preview

It's kind of a dull division, but that could make for a good race.

2004 San Diego Padres Preview

The Bottom Line:
Here you go. This is my boldest prediction for 2004. The San Diego Padres will finish no worse than second, and could even steal the division away from the Giants. I know it sounds risky, but I really believe your looking at postseason contenders. Sheesh, I’ll take it a step further: the Padres will christen their new stadium (regrettably known as Petco Park) with a division title.

Line Up:

I believe this will be the best offense in the NL West.  It
won’t be the best in the league by a long stretch, but with the veterans healthy
and improvement from the young players they will be very tough.  

1. Jay Payton, CF: He probably won’t match the 28
   home runs he hit last year in Colorado, but he will be a solid all-around
   player.


2. Mark Loretta, 2B: He hit .314 and led the team
   with 72 RBI’s and nobody noticed.  He’s a perfect fit in the #2 hole.


3. Brian Giles, RF: Now that Giles is in a strong
   line up he’ll become a real MVP candidate.


4. Phil Nevin, 1B: His .279 average with 13 home
   runs and 46 RBI’s was fantastic considering he missed the first 103 games of
   the season, and now he’ll even have people batting in front of him to drive
   in.


5. Ryan Klesko, LF: Nagging injuries and
   absolutely no line up protection killed him last year.  The first problem is
   supposedly taken care of and the second one definitely is.


6. Sean Burroughs, 3B: Burroughs will take a big
   step forward now that he has another year of experience and gets to hit in a
   low-pressure spot.


7. Ramon Hernandez, C: Hernandez is solid in all
   facets of a catcher’s duties.  It’s possible that Oakland’s Billy Beane
   finally made a mistake by trading him.


8. Khalil Green, SS: He’s a rookie; your guess is
   as good as mine.

Pitching:

They go four deep in the rotation, which is better than any
other team in the division.  Like the offense, their pitching is not even close
to the top of the National League, but it could be good enough considering their
competition.  The first four spots are based on seniority and while it is likely
to be the order they use at the start of the season, talent wise, you should
think of them in reverse order.

1. David Wells, L: He’s risky, but everybody seems
   to believe he’s got a little left.  He’s only at #1 because of seniority.


2. Brian Lawrence, R: Improved offense and defense
   around him will but him in the 18-win range. 


3. Adam Eaton, R: Situational improvements
   combined with even better stuff than Lawrence could make him the ace by the
   end of the year.


4. Jake Peavey, R: Probably even better than
   Eaton.


5. Ismael Valdes, R: I think he’s just relived to
   be out of Texas.

Closer Trevor Hoffman, R:
Hoffman was injured almost all of last year, but he came back at the end and
looked just as sharp as ever in nine appearances.

I really don’t know what to make of this.  Part of the
problem is that the context for closers in the Hall of Fame is largely unknown.
 The other part is that even though there were only five years between Sutter’s
last year and Hoffman’s first, the way managers use closers has changed
tremendously – just look at the ratio of innings to saves.  Anyway, I believe
Sutter should be in, and if you’ve followed the voting over the last five or six
years, it seems likely that he’ll make it.  Rich Gossage is another good closer
candidate for the Hall.  As for Hoffman, it’s hard to say.  In the last fifteen
years, he has more saves than any other player.  The next name on the list is
Dennis Eckersley, but that’s not a good comparison since Eckersley had a long
career as a starter too.  Out of the other guys in the top ten, Mariano Rivera
seems like the only one that could get some Hall of Fame consideration.  Just a
thought.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Brian Giles


2. Phil Nevin


3. Brian Lawrence


4. Jake Peavey


5. Ryan Klesko

2004 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Bottom Line:
Two years removed from a World Series Championship, the Diamondbacks have entered somewhat of a rebuilding phase. They are still good enough to compete in the well-balanced NL West. But by “well-balanced” I mean that the whole division is filled with teams that have big strengths and big weaknesses, and the Diamondbacks fall right in the middle of the bunch. They might compete for the division title, which will be far more attainable than the wild card, but I believe they’ll end up in second.

Line Up:

This has been a weak area for Arizona in the last few
years, but they’ve made themselves a lot stronger during the winter – the key
being Richie Sexson.  Not only does he give them a big time power threat, but he
gives Luis Gonzalez real line up protection, which he’s never had before.  A
return to form for Roberto Alomar gives them the best offense in the division.

1. Alex Cintron, SS: Though Cintron went largely
   unnoticed last year, he really had an excellent season.  He doesn’t walk
   much (29 times), but he doesn’t strike out much either (33 times).  That
   means he put the ball in play 419 times or 87% of the time.  The only other
   full time player that was even close was Ichiro (81%).  It’s almost
   impossible to put the ball in play that often and fail to hit .310 or
   better.


2. Roberto Alomar, 2B: Something makes me believe
   he’ll make a big comeback this year.  I don’t know why; it’s just a gut
   feeling.


3. Luis Gonzalez, LF: I expect his run and walk
   totals to exceed 100, his home runs to exceed 35, and his batting average to
   increase from .304 to .315 or so, just from having Sexson batting behind
   him.  The down side is an arm problem that might not be better and could
   result in season-ending surgery.


4. Richie Sexson, 1B: Just consider how much
   better his situation is: he has better hitters behind him (Steve Finley and
   Shae Hillenbrand vs. Wes Helms), better hitters in front of him (the three
   above vs. Scott Podsednik and Geoff Jenkins) and a much better ballpark to
   do it in.  He’s now an MVP candidate.


5. Steve Finley, CF: Always respectable hitting
   numbers, never any respect.  He’s still among the best defenders in the
   outfield too.


6. Shae Hillenbrand, 3B: He’s going to make you
   cringe on defense, but a repeat of his 20 homers and 97 RBI from 2003 can
   make you forget a lot.


7. Danny Bautista, RF: He could hit .300 with 20
   homers if he stays healthy, something he has not done in his entire career.


8. Robby Hammock, C: Surprising pop from such a
   little guy.  Some experts are concerned that his small frame might not be
   suited to catching.