American League East Preview

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

2004 New York Yankees Preview

The Bottom Line:
It’s hard to tell if the Yankees shocked the world or if it was just more of the same when they acquired Alex Rodriguez. Either way, their overall improvement, based on that move, is really not that big. Sure they’ll win their division, but they were going to do that anyway. I could go on, but the gist of it is the Yankees will be the 2004 AL East champs. I know the Red Sox look good, but tell me what’s wrong with this bunch right here. Only injuries or a raging fire sale from Steinbrenner can keep the Yankees from finishing 2004 on the top of the AL East.

Line Up:

I could play second base and bat ninth and this would still
be the best offense in baseball.

1. Kenny Lofton, CF: Lofton has become a
   well-traveled player the last few years, but there’s really no reason for
   teams to treat him as a spare part.  He won’t steal 75 bases in a season
   again, but he still hits well, still steals bases at a top notch level, and
   is among the smartest base runners in the game.  I expect he could return to
   All-Star form in New York.


2. Derek Jeter, SS: Non-Yankee fans seem to think
   Jeter had a bad 2003, but it really wasn’t.  Despite missing eight weeks
   because of a freak shoulder injury, he took a few weeks to get back in the
   groove and had a stellar second half.  He’s poised for a career year.


3. Alex Rodriguez, 3B: A-Rod is in a better team
   situation and a better line up, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be
   better than he has already been the past three years.  Yankee Stadium is not
   nearly as friendly to hitters as The Ballpark in Arlington, and that will
   have an effect, but the guys batting around him are better.  I expect his
   home runs to decrease slightly, while his batting average, runs scored, and
   RBI’s increase.  He won’t have any trouble making the move to third.


4. Jason Giambi, 1B: Why Giambi and not Sheffield
   in the #4 hole?  Simply because he’s a left-handed bat to break up A-Rod and
   Sheffield.  Obviously he’s a good fit, and he’ll be hard-pressed to keep
   from improving on his dismal batting average from 2003.  Playing defense
   everyday could be a problem.


5. Gary Sheffield, RF: Sheffield has a good
   reputation and that will be enough to scare opposing pitchers into giving
   Giambi pitches to hit, but Sheffield has never had a great year in his first
   season on a new team.  He’s also trying to make a move to the AL, on a team
   where he’s not even one of the three best players.  He won’t stink, but he
   won’t finish among the best overall hitters in the game as he did in 2003.


6. Bernie Williams, DH: Bernie will play DH to
   help protect a body that is beginning to betray him.  It should suit him
   well, plus he no longer has the pressure of being a huge run producer.  If
   he plays all season it will be an improvement on last year.


7. Hideki Matsui, LF: Matsui has gotten a bad rap
   as various experts and critics feel he did not live up to his billing when
   he came over from Japan.  Being the starting center fielder for the All-Star
   team was a bit of a stretch, but he was a quality hitter overall and his
   power numbers should improve after a year of experience.


8. Jorge Posada, C: Posada had a career year last
   year.  He won’t repeat it, but only because he’s further down in the line
   up.  He’ll be fine though and still be the best hitting catcher in the
   American League.


9. Enrique Wilson, 2B:  He’ll be a huge defensive
   improvement over Soriano, and it really doesn’t matter if he hits.  Sheesh,
   in this line up, I could be the second baseman and bat ninth and it wouldn’t
   matter.

Pitching: 

This is far from the best rotation the Yankees have had. 
Mussina is the only starter for which there is nothing to worry about.

1. Mike Mussina, R: Mussina has never won a Cy
   Young Award, and probably never will, but he’s one of the most consistently
   great pitchers of the last 10 years.  You can go ahead and pencil him in for
   his usual 18 wins and 3.25 ERA.


2. Javier Vazquez, R: Vazquez could be the
   Yankee’s most significant off-season acquisition.  If he had been with them
   last year, he might have beaten out Roy Halladay for the AL Cy Young Award. 
   It remains to be seen whether he can bear the pressure of New York (Jeff
   Weaver), but if he can, he’ll be right there with Pedro, Schilling, and
   Halladay as the best pitchers in the AL.


3. Kevin Brown, R: If he’s healthy he’ll be fine,
   but health is always a concern for this oft-injured 37-year-old.


4. Jose Contreras, R: Like Brown, Contreras is a
   big question mark – not because of injury, but just because he didn’t do
   well as a starter last year.  But for this team, he’ll win 15 games if he
   can keep his ERA below 6.00.


5. Jon Lieber, R: Lieber hasn’t pitched since mid
   2002 after he was shut down for Tommy John surgery.  That surgery has had a
   pretty good success rate of late, and would is that he’ll be as effective as
   ever.

Closer Mariano Rivera, R: People say he’s lost a
step, but I didn’t notice that last October.

Those are Vance’s career numbers and he is a Hall of Famer. 
It appears that Brown is slightly better.  Brown needs one more great season to
solidify a place for himself in the Hall.  Clearly though, Mussina is the best
of this bunch.  He already has slightly better numbers than the others, and he’s
done it in three fewer seasons.  When Clemens, Maddux, and Glavine retire,
Mussina will bear the torch as the active Hall of Famer.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Alex Rodriguez


2. Jason Giambi


3. Javier Vazquez


4. Mariano Rivera


5. Jorge Posada

2004 Boston Red Sox Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Red Sox made some huge moves during the winter, and it could really pay off if they get to play in October. Some people think they’ll win the East, and nobody denies that they’re legitimate wild card contenders, but in a division where every team made significant upgrades it won’t be as easy as it was last year. Please allow me remind you (please read this in your best Jim Rome voice) they are the Red Sox. They’re the Daffy Duck to New York’s Bugs Bunny. I wish it wasn’t so, but I’m afraid it is. They do look really good. They look good enough to win any division in baseball. But the Yankees are a mountainous obstacle, and the Red Sox have not shown themselves able to overcome it. As a result, I see the Red Sox likely making the playoffs, but only as the wild card team

Line Up:

2003’s best offense will still be good in 2004, but not
nearly as good as they were last year.  You just cannot expect to have a line up
where all of your roll players have career years.

1. Johnny Damon, CF: he’s one of the few returning
   members from the 2003 team that could equal or exceed his numbers from last
   season.


2. Bill Mueller, 3B: There’s no way he can repeat
   as the AL batting champ.  He’s decent hitter and a great fielder, but .285
   with 15 homers is more like it.


3. Nomar Garciaparra, SS: Unlike most of the
   roster in 2003, Nomar did not have a career year in 2003; it was a great
   year, but he’s had better, and he can be better again.  If he can be happy
   after being shopped around all winter he could return to his days of hitting
   .350. 


4. Manny Ramirez, LF: Manny was completely exposed
   last October, and after the embarrassment of being put on unconditional
   waivers just weeks after the World Series, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll
   give a 100% effort.  He’ll be good, but 2004 is likely to be a career year
   for Manny.


5. David Ortiz, DH: Ortiz’s numbers are for real. 
   He’s a legitimate 30 to 40 homer guy, with a knack for the clutch.  But
   he’ll still lead the team in strikeouts.


6. Trot Nixon, RF: Nixon looked good last year. 
   He probably won’t match those numbers, but he probably won’t fall too far
   away from them either.


7. Kevin Millar, 1B: Millar was solid and he will
   remain so.


8. Jason Varitek, C: He’s the best of the second
   tier catchers.


9. Pokey Reese, 2B: Reese’s glove will more than
   make up for Todd Walker’s bat. 

Pitching:

While Kim looks questionable as the #5 guy, this is the
best rotation in the American League.

1. Pedro Martinez, R: Pete’s in a contract year,
   so look for all those little ailments that cause him to miss starts (like
   sore throats) to miraculously disappear.  He might not be the 1999 Pedro,
   but he’ll be close.


2. Curt Schilling, R: There no reason to believe
   Schilling won’t return to his 2002 form, despite suffering from freak
   injuries last year.  Schilling is the only guy to be clearly among the best
   five pitchers in the game and still not be the ace on his own team.


3. Derek Lowe, L: Probably somewhere between his
   breakout 2002 and his disappointing 2003.  He sure came up big against
   Oakland.


4. Tim Wakefield, R: He’s the only guy in my
   entire major league preview that will still be pitching in 2030.


5. Byung-Hyun Kim, R: This is a huge experiment
   that could have a big payoff or be a total disaster.  Fantasy owners beware.

Closer Keith Foulke, R:
Getting the 2003 AL Saves leader is a huge improvement over the
closer-by-committee program they had at the beginning of ’03.  There’s something
about him though that makes me feel he’s not really among the premier closers in
the game.

You can usually find few objections to listing Koufax among
the greatest pitchers of all time, and that’s true.  He choose to end his career
early (due to arthritis), but he went out on top (27 and 5 in his final year). 
But I’m here to tell you that Pedro is even better.  Koufax compiled those
numbers in the most pitching dominated era in baseball history in the best
pitcher’s park, while Pedro has pitched in an era of huge offense in a great
hitter’s park.  The more I look at the numbers, the less debatable it becomes.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Pedro Martinez


2. Curt Schilling


3. Nomar Garciaparra


4. Manny Ramirez


5. Keith Foulke

2004 Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Bottom Line:
After a 2003 season in which the Jays had one of the best hitting teams in baseball, they managed to keep that unit intact, plus they added several good arms to support Roy Halladay. Every year the Jays seem to be contenders during the first half only to fade in the second. While I don’t expect them to climb out of third place this year, they could, and they should at least be playing meaningful games into August. I like this team. They look better than last year, and the slightest slip on the part of the Yankees or the Red Sox could open the door for the Jays to become wild card contenders. But a slip in Boston or New York is unlikely, leaving the Jays with a rather impressive won/lost record for a third place team.

Line Up:

The Blue Jays retained all the parts of their offense that
finish second to the Red Sox as the best run-producers in the AL.  They could
surpass the Red Sox this year, since many of their players are on the way up or
in their primes.

1. Reed Johnson, RF: He’s not atypical leadoff
   hitter, but he’s got the power to hit 20 homers, the speed to steal 15
   bases, and the ability to maintain a .350+ on base percentage.  He’s batting
   leadoff because the Jays don’t really have a better option.


2. Frank Catalanotto, LF: Health is the only thing
   keeping him from being a .315 hitter every year.


3. Vernon Wells, CF: He followed his break out
   2002 with a stellar 2003, and the best is yet to come.  He’s the real deal
   and the next big thing.


4. Carlos Delgado, 1B: He had the best first half
   of anybody in baseball last year but an average second half that still
   resulted in fantastic overall numbers.  You have to take him any way you can
   get him, but a more balanced attack would benefit the team.


5. Eric Hinske, 3B: While his batting average fell
   to .243, he still led the AL with 45 doubles.  Imagine how sharp this
   offense will be when he hits like we know he can.


6. Josh Phelps, DH: He contributed 20 homers last
   year in 119 games.  The Jays believe he’ll be a star with 40+ homer
   ability.  Much like the comment on Hinske, imagine how good they’ll be if he
   does.


7. Greg Myers, C: After several years as
   journeyman catcher, Myers broke out with a .307 average and 15 homers.  I
   just don’t believe he’ll do it again.


8. Orlando Hudson, 2B: Hudson, and shortstop
   Woodward just have to catch the ball.  It really doesn’t matter if they
   hit.  They combined for a .265 average, 16 homers and 102 RBI’s and that’s
   plenty.


9. Chris Woodward, SS

Pitching:

The Blue Jays, much like every other team in the division,
spent some money during the winter.  They made sure to maintain their excellent
hitting and focused on the pitching.  It could be enough to give them some
meaningful games in.

1. Roy Halladay, R: All of Halladay’s numbers in
   his Cy Young year are great, but how about this pair: 204 strikeouts, 32
   walks.  He’s here to stay.


2. Miguel Batista, R: With the kind of support the
   Blue Jays can give, Batista’s 3.54 ERA would have been good enough to turn
   his 10 wins in 2003 into 17 or 18.  Sheesh, Corey Lidle won 12 for them with
   a 5.74.


3. Ted Lilly, L: He’s solid enough and will eat
   innings.


4. Pat Hentgen, R: After falling off the baseball
   radar for almost two years, Hentgen a strong second half in Baltimore.  He
   looked like the guy he used to be in his first go round with Toronto.


5. Josh Towers, R: Looked good down the stretch.

Closer Aquilino Lopez, R:
Lopez filled the closer role decently after Kelvim Escobar moved to the
rotation.  He did a good enough job, but his half-season in the role is not
enough for the Jays to feel sure he’s the answer.  They brought in Justin Speier
from Colorado just in case, but the role is Lopez’s to lose.    

McCovey, in case you don’t know, is a Hall of Fame first
baseman from the Giants and a member of the 500 home run club.  His numbers
listed above are from the first twelve seasons of his career.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Roy Halladay


2. Vernon Wells


3. Carlos Delgado


4. Eric Hinske


5. Ted Lilly

2004 Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Orioles will have the most improved offense in baseball from last season to this, but they seem to have forgotten that they have to pitch every other half-inning. The front office, feeling liberated from Albert Belle’s contract, went out and spent money just to be spending it. Unfortunately, it won’t improve their position in the standings. They’ll be right where they’ve been for a while now: fourth place. The AL East dilemma will curse the Orioles again, and until the Yankees fall apart, this division will be a battle for second. This year for the Orioles, it will be a battle between fourth and fifth.

Line Up:

The Orioles spent a lot of money
bolstering their line up, and it should result in a good run-scoring bunch, with
a good combination of speed, power, experience, and youth.  Unfortunately,
they’re still only the fourth best offense in the division.

1. Melvin Mora, 3B: Mora had a great first half,
   but injuries slowed him down.  He’s moving to third base for the first time
   in his career, though that probably won’t be a problem for him.  He seems to
   me to be more suited as a super-sub rather than an everyday player, but if
   2003 was no fluke – mind you, it very well could have been – he’ll play
   every day.


2. Jerry Hairston, 2B: Hairston missed over 100
   games last year, but he did manage to steal 14 bases in 58 games.  He’s
   reported to be healthy, but the second base spot is by no means his.  Brian
   Roberts needs to find a place to play too.


3. Miguel Tejada, SS: I expect a career season fro
   Tejada.  He’s in a better line up and a smaller ballpark. 


4. Jay Gibbons, RF: Gibbons is also poised for a
   career year.  He’s reaching his prime and has real line up protection for
   the first time in his career.  You probably didn’t notice that he drove in
   100 runs last year.


5. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B: Raffy’s back for his
   second tour with the O’s.  He’s not going to bat .320 and hit 47 homers
   anymore, but there’s nothing wrong with .280 and 35.  He hasn’t shown any
   signs of slowing down.


6. Javy Lopez, C: Lopez is an improvement, but
   there’s no way – even in the smaller park – that he’ll come close to his
   monster 2003 numbers.  He’s not much of a defensive contributor either.


7. Larry Bigbie, LF: Bigbie was great in his
   second half call up.  With the retooled Baltimore line up, he’s in a
   position to develop without pressure.  He’s 30-homer guy in the making.


8. David Segui, DH: This is where Brian Roberts
   will be when Segui goes out for the season with another injury.


9. Luis Matos, CF: Like Bigbie, Matos was
   impressive in his mid-season call up, batting .303 with 15 stolen bases in
   109 games.  He could end up as the leadoff man before the season ends.

Pitching:

In their huge winter spending spree, Peter Angelos forgot
that he might need some pitching to win.  He does have some good young arms, and
he did bring back Sidney Ponson, but he would have been better off spending his
Lopez or Palmeiro money on a quality pitcher.

1. Sidney Ponson, R: This was really a good
   overall deal for the Orioles: Ponson finally paid off, they traded him to
   San Francisco for a great prospect in Kurt Ainsworth, and then managed to
   resign him.  He’s a decent pitcher, but not a true ace.


2. Rodrigo Lopez, R: Lopez fell far from his 2002
   Rookie of the Year campaign.  It remains to be seen whether he can turn it
   around.


3. Kurt Ainsworth, R: He could be their ace of the
   future.  He might have been already had he not been sidelined with injury
   for most of the second half.  He seems like a good bet to me.


4. Omar Daal, L: Daal has been an on again/off
   again type of starter – mostly off.


5. Eric Dubose, L: Dubose made 10 starts last year
   and kept his ERA under 4.00.

Closer Jorge Julio, R: One
of those guys that will give you a heart attack but seems to pull through in the
end, kind of like Jose Mesa.

Those are Campanella’s career numbers.  His career was cut
short by a car accident that left him paralyzed, and his tragic fate (and the
fact that he played for the Dodgers) could be the reason he waltzed right into
the Hall of Fame without a debate.  At this point, Lopez is really not in his
class, as it takes him 12 years to stack up to Campy’s 10, plus Campanella had
more than one great season (He won the NL MVP three times).  Lopez could still
turn himself into a Hall of Fame candidate, but it will take at least three more
years similar to his incredible 2003 to do it.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Miguel Tejada


2. Javy Lopez


3. Jay Gibbons


4. Rafael Palmeiro


5. Jorge Julio

2004 Tampa Bay Devil Rays Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Devil Rays look like a team moving in the right direction, well, at least they look good on offense. They’re in a position where the passing of another season means experience and improvement. Their farm system, however, is yet to produce a quality pitcher. Despite the teams overall improvement, every other team in the AL East improved too, leaving the Devil Rays in the same spot they’ve been in since they started: last place. The Rays should be better in 2004. They could even get out of last place if everything clicks, but the improvement of the Orioles and Blue Jays means the entire division should end the same way it has for the last six years, which leaves the Rays in the cellar.

Line Up:

The Devil Rays added a few new components (mostly
ex-Mariners, thanks to Lou Piniella).  They have some good prospects.  Perhaps
what Selig should do is realign the AL and put the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays
in the other AL divisions, since the current system allows the Yankees and Red
Sox to run rampant.

1. Carl Crawford, LF: Crawford had a great rookie
   season that included a league-leading 55 stolen bases.  He hit a respectable
   .281, but his .309 on base percentage just doesn’t cut in the leadoff role. 
   


2. Rocco Baldelli, CF: Has the same plate
   discipline problems that Crawford does, but the experts believe he will
   develop into a .320 hitter.  If you can remember the two good years from
   Mike Greenwell, Baldelli is envisioned as a guy like him that also steals
   bases.


3. Aubrey Huff, DH: Huff has quietly improved each
   of the last three seasons to the point that he posted a .311 average with
   198 hits, 34 home runs, and 107 RBI.  He’ll be 28 this year, and the best
   may be yet to come.


4. Jose Cruz Jr., RF: Cruz has turned into a gold
   glove defender in right field.  Piniella believes he can make his bat return
   to his 30/30 days.


5. Tino Martinez, 1B: Another Lou Piniella
   project.  The best part is that the Cardinals are paying the bill.  Martinez
   could end up sharing time with Fred McGriff, who’s in search of his 500^th
   home run.


6. Julio Lugo, SS: Lugo turned into the guy the
   Astros had been dreaming off last year.  Unfortunately for them, it happened
   in Tampa.  He hit a shocking .275 with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases in
   119 games.  That’s not exactly A-Rod, but those are really decent numbers
   for a shortstop.


7. Toby Hall, C: This is where the Tampa offense
   fall apart, but hey, they’ve nevr gone six-deep before.  Hall is making his
   third attempt at becoming the player we were told he’d be.


8. Geoff Blum, 3B: He plays good defense.


9. Rey Sanchez, 2B: Ditto.

Note on the Tampa Bench:
Piniella already has two guys on the field that play multiple positions (Blum,
Sanchez).  Huff can play outfield, first, or third, Damien Rolls plays outfield
and third, and Robert Fick can catch, play first or outfield.  As a result, the
line up could be different every day.  While that’s not necessarily a good
thing, it does give the team incredible flexibility in case of an injury.

Pitching:

There’s still a lot of work to do
here, but Lou brought in more ex-Mariners to fill the gaps.  He has a few good
prospects, but the following six guys are more likely to elicit a “What?” than a
“Wow.”

1. Victor Zambrano, R: He managed to eat a lot of
   innings and have a record over .500 (12/10), but his 106/132 walk to
   strikeout ratio is abysmal.


2. Jeremi Gonzalez, R: Has the same strengths and
   weaknesses as Zambrano.


3. Doug Waechter, R: He was impressive in a late
   season call up.  I watched him shut out the M’s.  He has impeccable control
   and could be either the ace of the future or a Yankee of the future.


4. Damien Moss, L: Moss started off well in San
   Francisco, but was total bust in Baltimore.  Like the top two guys in the
   rotation, Moss has serious control issues.


5. John Halama, L: Will once again get the chance
   to start, but he may have already had his best days in Seattle.

Closer Danys Baez, R: He
was signed away from Cleveland, and has the closer title for now, but Lance
Carter is still in the pen, and Mike Williams has been invited to camp.

No one disputes Reggie’s place in the Hall of Fame, yet
McGriff is usually thought of as the first guy with 500+ home runs that will not
make it.  I know Reggie went on to have at least one more good year after the 18
seasons that are reflected above and McGriff appears to be finished, but those
numbers suggest that McGriff is actually the better player. Unfortunately, it appears
as though McGriff will be released by the Devil Rays before the season starts.
He could be finished.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Aubrey Huff


2. Rocco Baldelli


3. Carl Crawford


4. Jose Cruz Jr.


5. Toby Hall

National League east Preview

A changing of the guard.

2004 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Bottom Line:
Ed Wade and the fine folks in the Phillie organization have built a great team just in time for the opening of their new ballpark. Whether they’re good or not, we should all support the Phillies just for getting rid of Veteran Stadium. As if that’s not enough, they’re finally going to do it: the Phillies are going to unseat the Braves as the NL East Champions and make their first postseason appearance since Mitch Williams faced Joe Carter in the 1993 World Series. I believe that the Cubs and Astros are actually better teams than the Phillies, but given the weakness of the NL East, they have a good shot at finishing with the best record in the National League.

Line Up:

For several years the now, the Phils have planned to open
their new ballpark with a powerful line up, and the pieces appear to be in
place.  The line up will be largely the same as last year, but they’re expecting
Marlon Byrd to emerge as a force in the leadoff spot, Pat Burrell to bounce back
to his 2002 form, and they’ve realized the Placido Polanco is too good to keep
out of the line up.

1. Marlon Byrd, CF: Byrd hit .303 with a decent
   enough OBP (.366) in his first full season.  The experts have been telling
   for three years that Byrd will be an impact player, and 2004 will be the
   year he makes the impact.


2. Placido Polanco, 2B: Polanco had excellent
   numbers across the board last year.  Good enough that had he been the
   regular from the beginning of the year, he would rank right up there with
   Marcus Giles among NL second basemen.  He’s an All-Star in waiting.


3. Bobby Abreu, RF: He’s yet to become truly
   great, but he has been consistently very, very good over the past few
   years.  He’s a true five-tool guy.


4. Jim Thome, 1B: I wouldn’t worry about his
   damaged middle finger.  He’ll be ready to go by opening day, and he’s a good
   bet to repeat as NL home run champ.


5. Mike Lieberthal, C: As far as good hitting
   catchers go, he’s just a notch below the elite guys, but he’s better than
   everybody else.


6. Pat Burrell, 1B: There’s no explanation for
   Burrell’s sudden inability to make contact.  The Phillies will contend
   without him, but they could run away with it if he hits like he did in 2002.


7. Jimmy Rollins, SS: If he could just improve his
   plate discipline he’d be one of the best shortstops in baseball.  Until then
   he’s just a poor (and I mean very poor) man’s Edgar Renteria.


8. David Bell, 3B: This spot belongs to Bell right
   now, but if he stumbles out of the gate, look for Bowa to move Polanco to
   third and put rookie Chase Utley in the line up at second.

Pitching:

The Phillies made all the right moves during the winter to
give themselves one of the best pitching staffs, top to bottom, in the National
League.  I haven’t talked much about middle relief and set up guys in these
previews, but the group in Philadelphia is worth mentioning.  They kept Rheal
Cormier and his gaudy numbers (8 and 0, 1.70 ERA), and they added Roberto
Hernandez and Tim Worrell to go along with the best closer in baseball not named
Gagne.

1. Kevin Millwood, R: His second half slump last
   year killed their chances.  He needs to be consistent from day one.  He
   started 7 and 1; he ended 7 and 11.


2. Randy Wolf, L: If Wolf can reduce his walks
   he’ll be one of the best in the NL.


3. Vincente Padilla, R: The experts complain that
   Padilla is only five games over .500 the last two years, but that’s really
   misleading.  He went 14 and 12 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.  The Brave’s
   Russ Ortiz had a 3.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but finished 21 and 7.  A pitchers
   win record is really not a great tool for measuring his effectiveness.


4. Eric Milton, L: He missed most of last season,
   but he looked good in three starts at the end of the year.


5. Brett Myers, R: Myers could ultimately be the
   best pitcher on the staff.

Closer Billy Wagner, L: 44
saves, 1.78 ERA, 105 strikeouts in 86 innings pitched.  That says it all.

Kiner is in the Hall already and Thome will be.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Jim Thome


2. Bobby Abreu


3. Billy Wagner


4. Randy Wolf


5. Kevin Millwood

2004 Atlanta Braves Preview

The Bottom Line:
I’m finally going to do it: the Braves will not win the NL East in 2004. It’s been a long time, it’s been a good run, but it’s over. What’s worse is that the new Time Warner ownership is not nearly as interested in keeping the team good, as Ted Turner was. Regardless of how much you hate Turner, he was good at taking care of his team. So here’s the prediction: the Braves will finish second, even though they should only finish third, and they’ll compete for the wild card, but they’ll fall short and take an early vacation. It was fun, but I think the Braves will have to go back to the bottom before they get back to the top.

Line Up:

The Braves lost their offensive leaders in almost every
category when Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez bolted for greener pastures in the
AL East.  They also lost Robert Fick and Vinny Castilla.  That quartet will be
impossible to replace, and the Braves know it, so they’re making a move toward
youth.  Obviously, they won’t be nearly so threatening this year.

1. Rafael Furcal, SS: Furcal finally got a chance
   to show us what he can do by staying healthy all year.  Provided he can
   repeat the health end of the deal, there’s no reason he can’t repeat his
   fantastic offense too.


2. Marcus Giles, 2B: Giles had a huge breakthrough
   year in 2003, but he won’t have Gary Sheffield hitting behind him this
   year.  I expect he’ll still be among the best second basemen in baseball –
   even All-Star caliber – but I doubt he’ll match his 2003 output.


3. Chipper Jones, LF: He’s no longer a perennial
   MVP candidate, but he’s still very, very good.  The gut says he’ll be better
   than last year.


4. Andruw Jones, CF: He’s always been good, but a
   lack of plate discipline has kept him from being a true super star, thus
   far.  It seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 26 – he’s not
   even in his prime.  On a side, we’ll finally get to see who is the best
   defender in center field in the whole game this year, as Jones will face off
   with Mike Cameron 20, or so, times this year.


5. J.D. Drew, RF: He can be good if he’s healthy,
   which he hasn’t done in his career.  It’s put up or shut up time.


6. Johnny Estrada, C: Estrada, the principle
   acquisition for the Braves in Kevin Millwood deal last year, is finally
   getting a long over-due chance to play every day.  He’s been stuck behind
   Mike Lieberthal and Javy Lopez for three years.  His averages at AAA were
   phenomenal (.328 AVG, .393 OBP, .494 SLG). 


7. Adam LaRoche, 1B: No Major League experience. 
   He hit .290 with 20 homers at AAA Richmond.  46-year-old Julio Franco is
   still around to back him up.


8. Mark DeRosa, 3B: DeRosa played every position
   except catcher last year, and now he’ll get his chance.  He should be at
   least decent.  On a side, I like the idea of batting him second and moving
   everyone after him down a notch, giving the Braves a 3-4-5 of Giles, Jones,
   and Jones.

Pitching:

The era of the great Braves staffs is over.  Only Smoltz
remains, and he’s the closer.  We’re about to see if Leo Mazzone was the
pitching coach or if it was really Tom Galvine and Greg Maddux. 

1. Russ Ortiz, R: Somehow he won 21 games last
   year.  Trust me, it won’t happen again.


2. Mike Hampton, L: By the time the second half
   rolled around, Hampton looked like the guy that won 40 games in 1999 and
   2000.


3. Horacio Ramirez, L: Greg Maddux said Ramirez is
   the real deal.  That’s good enough for me.


4. John Thomson, R: The journeyman pitcher
   mastered his curve in the middle of 2003 and had a great second half in
   Texas.  It could get even better for him in Atlanta.


5. Andy Pratt, L: Struck out 161 in 156 innings in
   AAA – that’s all I know.

Remarkably Similar:

It was this comparison that made we want to take a look at
a comparison from every team.  Eckersley’s numbers as a starter are complete,
but as a closer I used only his first three years.  At this point, Smoltz was a
better starter, while Eck was a better closer.  I know Smoltz has more time, but
Eckersley’s first three years as a closer were not his best.  Not that he had
bad years, but he had two seasons after the time reflected above in which he was
absolutely dominant.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. John Smoltz


2. Chipper Jones


3. Andruw Jones


4. Marcus Giles


5. Mike Hampton

2004 Florida Marlins Preview

The Bottom Line:
What can you say? The 2003 Marlins shocked the world, and I’m happy they did, but there won’t be any October games in Miami this year. Many experts will predict the Marlins to finish first, and some will say second with a shot at the Wild Card, but the best I can do is give them third. Ultimately, the Marlins are on the right track. They should eventually take the torch from the Braves as the team to beat in the NL East, but it will be 2005 before the torch is truly theirs. All of that assumes Loria is committed to keeping his young guys around. If he does he’ll have a big payoff. But in 2004 they’re really going to miss Pudge

Line Up:

This group of hitters is not quite the caliber that the
2003 Champs were, but they could still be very good.  They feel that a healthy
year from Mike Lowell and continued improvement from Miguel Cabrera will give
them the pop they need.  It’s also possible they’ll get some production from Hee
Seop Choi and Ramon Castro – neither of which has played a full season, and
neither of which can replace Derek Lee and Ivan Rodriguez.

1. Juan Pierre, CF: Pierre is the premier leadoff
   hitter in the National League and is rivaled only by Ichiro and Johnny Damon
   throughout the entire game.  Everything you want in a leadoff hitter, he
   does exceptionally well: .305 batting average, more walks than strike outs
   (55 to 35, producing a .361 OBP), and a league-leading 65 steals.  In my
   opinion, he’s the best player on the team.


2. Luis Castillo, 2B: He’d be leading off on most
   other teams, and he has the tools to do it.  His steals were down a bit last
   year, but the Castillo/Pierre combination is most definitely the fastest
   one-two punch in baseball, and both hit over .300.


3. Miguel Cabrera, RF: He could be a stud, but it
   seems awfully early to slip him into the #3 spot in the order.  His swing
   reminds me of A-Rod.


4. Mike Lowell, 3B: He led the team in home runs
   (32) and RBI (105) despite missing 22 games in September.  He’s not the
   glove man that Scott Rolen is, but he’s probably a better hitter. 


5. Jeff Conine, LF: Between Baltimore and Florida,
   Conine hit 20 homers and drove in 95.  He does that every year, and nobody
   seems to notice.  He’s a great situational hitter too.  I bet you didn’t
   know he lead the majors in sacrifice flies last year with 13.


6. Alex Gonzalez, SS: He’s a little better than
   the other Alex Gonzalez, but they are very similar.  They have some power
   and seem to get clutch hits, but they also have low averages and high
   strikeouts.


7. Hee Seop Choi, 1B: The Cubs gave up on Choi,
   but I don’t think that was fair.  I’m also not convinced he’ll be a super
   star.  Anyway, the Marlins are willing to give him a try, but it seems
   they’re not convinced either: they signed Wil Cordero just in case he flops.


8. Ramon Castro, C: He only had 53 at bats last
   year, but if he could have maintained his numbers over the course of the
   season, this is what it would look like: .283 average, 450 at bats, 42 home
   runs.  In the real world, he’ll be somewhere between the 5 home runs he did
   hit, and the 42 home runs he would have hit had been able to maintain his
   one every 10.3 at bats.  For real though, he could be pretty good.

Pitching:

Great pitching won them a World Series title, but I believe
they just caught lightening in a bottle for September and October.  I’m not
saying this is a bad bunch – they really are good – they’re just not quite as
good as they looked last October.  If you’re reading this, let me know how many
of you saw Josh Beckett get drafted too high in your fantasy league.  Their
former ace A.J. Burnett should return from Tommy John surgery in May or June.

1. Josh Beckett, R: I’ve been downing Beckett all
   winter.  I did it mostly as a response to people that feel like he’s done
   all he needs to do to be talked about with guys like Kerry Wood and Curt
   Schilling and others as one of the premier pitchers of the league.  In
   truth, it’s possible that he’ll become that.  It’s even possible that he’ll
   do it this year.  But he really does not deserve to be thought of that way. 
   When you consider the other NL pitchers that had similar situations (very
   little experience), it’s not hard to find guys that did better.  Dontrelle
   Willis was just as good.  Brandon Webb was better.  And then there’s Mark
   Prior . . .


2. Brad Penny, R: He’d be a solid #2 or #3 on most
   staffs, but he’s more of a super-duper inning eater than a lower-level ace.


3. Carl Pavano, R: Pavano has always pitched well
   when he’s healthy.  The reason you’ve never heard of him before is that he’s
   rarely been healthy, and when he was, it was in Montreal.


4. Dontrelle Willis, L: My gut tells me he’ll
   struggle – the weird delivery guys usually do in the second seasons.  Unless
   he develops another solid pitch, he’s better suited to be a closer.  He will
   become a valuable major league pitcher someday, but I’m not convinced it
   will happen in 2004.


5. Darren Oliver, L: He’s an unspectacular veteran
   signed to keep a spot warm for Burnett.

Closer Armando Benitez, R:
The experts act like Benitez was a flop in New York and Seattle, but the numbers
tell a different story.  He went 1 and 1 with a 2.66 ERA and 25 strikeouts in
23.2 innings.  That’s not that bad to me. 

Another poor comparison due to a lack of veteran players. 
Evers is in the Hall of Fame, but he probably shouldn’t be.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Juan Pierre


2. Mike Lowell


3. Josh Beckett


4. Miguel Cabrera


5. Armando Benitez

2004 New York Mets Preview

The Bottom Line:
Nobody will be fooled by the Mets again: they’re terrible. They’ve tried everything, and now they’re nothing more than the Bizarro-Yankees. Over the last three years, they’ve brought in high-priced free agents only to watch them fall apart and underachieve. They fired one high-profile manager (Bobby Valentine) and brought in another (Art Howe). At least the last few years people thought they’d be good, but this year it looks like a fourth place finish would be good, but a last place finish is much more likely. In the dream world, this line up could go the World Series, but in truth they won’t even contend. They have four unproven players (Matsui, Reyes, Phillips, and Wigginton), two offensive underachievers (Cameron and Cedeno), and two injury-riddled fading stars (Piazza and Floyd). That’s pretty much the same situation they’ve been in for the past three years. On the bright side, Mo Vaughn retired.

Line Up:

I don’t even know what to say about the Mets anymore (This
applies to the pitching too).  They’ve got some veterans.  They got some
rookies.  They’ve got a propensity for bad luck.

1. Jose Reyes, 2B: Everybody seems to think he’s
   the real deal.  He needs some plate discipline, but who doesn’t when they’re
   20?  He stole 39 bases in 111 games between the Mets and AAA Norfolk.


2. Kazuo Matsui, SS: It’s impossible to make a
   prediction about the latest Japanese super star, but I can assure you of
   this: he’ll be elected the NL’s starting shortstop for the All-Star game
   over a much more deserving Edgar Renteria.


3. Mike Piazza, C/1B: The strength of the entire
   line up depends on him.  Look for him to switch to first after he becomes
   the all-time leader in homers by a catcher.  His offensive numbers should
   improve when he makes the switch.


4. Cliff Floyd, LF: He’s still a force when he’s
   healthy.  He cut his season short last year to have surgery early so he
   could be ready to go for 2004.


5. Jason Phillips, 1B/C: He’ll play whatever
   Piazza isn’t playing.  He’s shown great plate discipline for a young player,
   and should see overall improvement after his first full season.


6. Mike Cameron, CF: Cameron’s defense is so good,
   it almost doesn’t matter if he hits.  But he’ll do that too.  His numbers
   should see a slight improvement just from leaving Seattle.


7. Karim Garcia/Shane Spencer, RF: A platoon
   situation for two slightly above average players.


8. Ty Wigginton, 3B: He had an unspectacular, but
   decent enough rookie season.  He should show slight improvement, but he
   doesn’t look like a future All-Star.

Pitching:

1. Tom Glavine, L: This is a make or break year
   for Glavine.  He’s in the middle of a big three-year contract and
   desperately needs to rebound from a terrible 2003 for which he has no
   excuses.  He’s chasing a milestone (300 wins), but if he’s as bad as last
   year, it will take him four more years to get there.


2. Al Leiter, L: He’s old, but he’s smart, and he
   still gets the job done.


3. Steve Trachsel, R: He’s really not as good as
   his 2003 numbers suggest.


4. Jae Seo, R: Looked good in his first season. 
   He was lucky to have a 3.82 ERA considering his poor walk ratio.


5. Scott Erickson, R: He’s trying to hang on.  You
   just never know.

Closer Braden Looper, R:
He lost his job with the Marlins last year.  The Mets hope he can be good enough
to do the job because they don’t have another option if he fails.   

I know Glavine had a bad year with no excuses, but he will
be a Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Mike Piazza


2. Cliff Floyd


3. Kazuo Matsui


4. Jose Reyes


5. Tom Glavine

2004 Montreal Expos Preview

The Bottom Line:
The names are different, but the song remains the same in Montreal: they can’t draw fans, they can’t raise payroll, they are supposed to be relocated by the beginning of next season, and their best players have been shipped off to the highest bidder. Despite all these problems, they continually do more with less. Manager Frank Robinson keeps them within smelling distance of the wild card until August. Unfortunately, the NL East is a little better this year, so climbing above fourth place will be practically impossible. The Expos have been among the best teams in all of baseball during the last fifteen years, at least from a management standpoint. They’ve provided quality players for several teams during that time, and unless new ownership and relocation comes along soon, we’ll probably be adding Vidro and Cabrera to the growing list of stars that the Expos have provided for the rest of the league.

Line Up:

Omar Minaya and Frank Robinson are doing the best they can,
but the current ownership group (Major League Baseball) is doing the best the
can to make sure this team stinks.  They’re a year late finding them a place to
move even though there are four ownership conglomerates around the country that
want to have them.  As a result, this is all you get.

1. Brad Wilkerson, LF: He’s not a typical leadoff
   hitter - strikes out a lot, but somehow he finds his way on base (.380
   OBP).  He got some pop too (19 home runs).


2. Jose Vidro, 2B: Still among the best second
   basemen in the game; still completely ignored in Montreal.


3. Nick Johnson, 1B: This guy will be a big, big
   star.  All the numbers are there.  Only nagging injuries have kept him from
   being the next Jason Giambi.


4. Carl Everett, RF: Everett could have been a
   Hall of Fame caliber player if he wasn’t such a head case.  It hard to say
   if he’ll produce from game to game, let alone season to season.


5. Orlando Cabrera, SS: He’s so good it’s almost
   impossible to believe he’s still an Expo.


6. Tony Batista, 3B: The final link in a very
   powerful infield.  He has the power to compare with Lowell, Rolen, and
   Chavez, but the comparison ends with his .235 batting average.


7. Endy Chavez, CF: A leadoff hitter with a .291
   OBP – yikes.  They should promote rookie Turrmel Sledge to take this spot. 
   On a side, what a great baseball name – Turrmell Sledge.


8. Brian Schneider, C: If you’re looking for the
   next Brad Ausmus, here he is.

Pitching:

Despite the loss of Javier Vazquez, the Expos still have
some good young arms.  Health is the key.

1. Livan Hernandez, R: He led the NL in innings
   (233.1) and complete games (8), and he won 15 games.  The pattern of his
   career suggests this is an aberration – not a trend.  By the way, what ever
   happened to his brother “El Duque”?  I can’t even find him on a list of
   non-roster invitees.


2. Tomo Ohka, R: Can be brilliant one minute and
   frustrating the next. 


3. Tony Armas Jr., R: Armas looked great in five
   starts last April, but went down with an injury.  It’s easy to see what he
   might do; it’s hard to say he will.


4. Claudio Vargas, R: He went 3 and 1 with a 1.43
   ERA in six starts in June, but succumbed to injury after that.  A rotator
   cuff problem is not the best way to start your pitching career.


5. Zach Day, R: Another promising rookie; another
   huge injury risk.

Closer Rocky Biddle, R:
The job appears to be his, but his second half struggles create a lot of
questions.   

This was the best I could do.

1. Nick Johnson


2. Jose Vidro


3. Orlando Cabrera


4. Livan Hernandez


5. Carl Everett

A Little Extra - All-Time Expo Stars for Other Teams:

C, Daren Fletcher: had three great years in Toronto.

1B, Brad Fullmer & Andres Galaraga:
Galaraga went to Colorado to win a batting title and later starred for the
Braves.

2B, Delino Deshields: had a few good years for LA
and Baltimore.

SS, Mark Grudzielanek: All-Star appearance in 1996
and he always seems to find a spot at the top of the order wherever he goes.

LF, Cliff Floyd & Moises Alou: Alou has obvious
accolades for Marlins, Astros, and Cubs.

CF, Rondell White & Marquis Grissom: Grissom starred
for the Braves in many a post season.

RF, Vladimir Guerrero & Larry Walker: Walker has won
several batting titles, Gold Gloves and an MVP in Colorado.

SP1, Randy Johnson: became Randy Johnson in Seattle
and Arizona

SP2, Pedro Martinez: became perennial Cy Young
candidate in Boston

SP3, Javier Vazquez: will win his first Cy Young in
2004 as a member of the Yankees

SP4, Jeff Fassero: had several good years for Seattle

SP5, Kirk Rueter: seven straight solid seasons in San
Francisco

Closer John Wetteland, won World Series MVP for
Yanks in 1996

Closer Ugueth Urbina, the league’s ace closer for
hire.

Closer Jeff Shaw, had five 30+ save season in
Cincinnati and LA

Here’s the combined accomplishments for the group:

1 All-Star Game MVP

1 NL MVP

2 hits leaders

2 stolen base leaders

2 home run leaders

2 RBI leaders

2 win leaders

3 saves leaders

3 Postseason series MVP’s

4 Batting Titles

8 Cy Young Awards

9 ERA titles

11 Strikeout leaders

13 Gold Gloves

39 Postseason Appearances

45 All-Star Appearances

National League West Preview

It's kind of a dull division, but that could make for a good race.

2004 San Diego Padres Preview

The Bottom Line:
Here you go. This is my boldest prediction for 2004. The San Diego Padres will finish no worse than second, and could even steal the division away from the Giants. I know it sounds risky, but I really believe your looking at postseason contenders. Sheesh, I’ll take it a step further: the Padres will christen their new stadium (regrettably known as Petco Park) with a division title.

Line Up:

I believe this will be the best offense in the NL West.  It
won’t be the best in the league by a long stretch, but with the veterans healthy
and improvement from the young players they will be very tough.  

1. Jay Payton, CF: He probably won’t match the 28
   home runs he hit last year in Colorado, but he will be a solid all-around
   player.


2. Mark Loretta, 2B: He hit .314 and led the team
   with 72 RBI’s and nobody noticed.  He’s a perfect fit in the #2 hole.


3. Brian Giles, RF: Now that Giles is in a strong
   line up he’ll become a real MVP candidate.


4. Phil Nevin, 1B: His .279 average with 13 home
   runs and 46 RBI’s was fantastic considering he missed the first 103 games of
   the season, and now he’ll even have people batting in front of him to drive
   in.


5. Ryan Klesko, LF: Nagging injuries and
   absolutely no line up protection killed him last year.  The first problem is
   supposedly taken care of and the second one definitely is.


6. Sean Burroughs, 3B: Burroughs will take a big
   step forward now that he has another year of experience and gets to hit in a
   low-pressure spot.


7. Ramon Hernandez, C: Hernandez is solid in all
   facets of a catcher’s duties.  It’s possible that Oakland’s Billy Beane
   finally made a mistake by trading him.


8. Khalil Green, SS: He’s a rookie; your guess is
   as good as mine.

Pitching:

They go four deep in the rotation, which is better than any
other team in the division.  Like the offense, their pitching is not even close
to the top of the National League, but it could be good enough considering their
competition.  The first four spots are based on seniority and while it is likely
to be the order they use at the start of the season, talent wise, you should
think of them in reverse order.

1. David Wells, L: He’s risky, but everybody seems
   to believe he’s got a little left.  He’s only at #1 because of seniority.


2. Brian Lawrence, R: Improved offense and defense
   around him will but him in the 18-win range. 


3. Adam Eaton, R: Situational improvements
   combined with even better stuff than Lawrence could make him the ace by the
   end of the year.


4. Jake Peavey, R: Probably even better than
   Eaton.


5. Ismael Valdes, R: I think he’s just relived to
   be out of Texas.

Closer Trevor Hoffman, R:
Hoffman was injured almost all of last year, but he came back at the end and
looked just as sharp as ever in nine appearances.

I really don’t know what to make of this.  Part of the
problem is that the context for closers in the Hall of Fame is largely unknown.
 The other part is that even though there were only five years between Sutter’s
last year and Hoffman’s first, the way managers use closers has changed
tremendously – just look at the ratio of innings to saves.  Anyway, I believe
Sutter should be in, and if you’ve followed the voting over the last five or six
years, it seems likely that he’ll make it.  Rich Gossage is another good closer
candidate for the Hall.  As for Hoffman, it’s hard to say.  In the last fifteen
years, he has more saves than any other player.  The next name on the list is
Dennis Eckersley, but that’s not a good comparison since Eckersley had a long
career as a starter too.  Out of the other guys in the top ten, Mariano Rivera
seems like the only one that could get some Hall of Fame consideration.  Just a
thought.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Brian Giles


2. Phil Nevin


3. Brian Lawrence


4. Jake Peavey


5. Ryan Klesko

2004 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Bottom Line:
Two years removed from a World Series Championship, the Diamondbacks have entered somewhat of a rebuilding phase. They are still good enough to compete in the well-balanced NL West. But by “well-balanced” I mean that the whole division is filled with teams that have big strengths and big weaknesses, and the Diamondbacks fall right in the middle of the bunch. They might compete for the division title, which will be far more attainable than the wild card, but I believe they’ll end up in second.

Line Up:

This has been a weak area for Arizona in the last few
years, but they’ve made themselves a lot stronger during the winter – the key
being Richie Sexson.  Not only does he give them a big time power threat, but he
gives Luis Gonzalez real line up protection, which he’s never had before.  A
return to form for Roberto Alomar gives them the best offense in the division.

1. Alex Cintron, SS: Though Cintron went largely
   unnoticed last year, he really had an excellent season.  He doesn’t walk
   much (29 times), but he doesn’t strike out much either (33 times).  That
   means he put the ball in play 419 times or 87% of the time.  The only other
   full time player that was even close was Ichiro (81%).  It’s almost
   impossible to put the ball in play that often and fail to hit .310 or
   better.


2. Roberto Alomar, 2B: Something makes me believe
   he’ll make a big comeback this year.  I don’t know why; it’s just a gut
   feeling.


3. Luis Gonzalez, LF: I expect his run and walk
   totals to exceed 100, his home runs to exceed 35, and his batting average to
   increase from .304 to .315 or so, just from having Sexson batting behind
   him.  The down side is an arm problem that might not be better and could
   result in season-ending surgery.


4. Richie Sexson, 1B: Just consider how much
   better his situation is: he has better hitters behind him (Steve Finley and
   Shae Hillenbrand vs. Wes Helms), better hitters in front of him (the three
   above vs. Scott Podsednik and Geoff Jenkins) and a much better ballpark to
   do it in.  He’s now an MVP candidate.


5. Steve Finley, CF: Always respectable hitting
   numbers, never any respect.  He’s still among the best defenders in the
   outfield too.


6. Shae Hillenbrand, 3B: He’s going to make you
   cringe on defense, but a repeat of his 20 homers and 97 RBI from 2003 can
   make you forget a lot.


7. Danny Bautista, RF: He could hit .300 with 20
   homers if he stays healthy, something he has not done in his entire career.


8. Robby Hammock, C: Surprising pop from such a
   little guy.  Some experts are concerned that his small frame might not be
   suited to catching.

Pitching:

Anytime you loose Curt Schilling it’s going to hurt. 
Brandon Webb emerged as a solid prospect and he’ll fill the #2 slot left open by
Schilling.  So with Webb and Randy Johnson the Diamondbacks go two deep in the
rotation, which was enough for them to win it all in 2001.  I doubt they’ll be
so lucky this year.

1. Randy Johnson, L: Injury trouble and age are
   big concerns but he looked sharp in his last few starts of the season.  Keep
   in mind that he is Randy Johnson.


2. Brandon Webb, R: He slip 25% in his command
   numbers (ERA, WHIP) from last year and with a little luck still win 18+
   games.  Consider the facts below.


3. Elmer Dessens, R: The only season highlight
   from Dessens in 2003 was 175.2 innings.  That’s really all you can expect
   for 2004.


4. Shane Reynolds, R: He’s a big risk but he did
   manage to stay healthy last year, and that’s really all Arizona expects out
   of their starters in this part of the rotation.


5. Steve Sparks, R: They could go with a number of
   prospects in this spot, but I think the rubber-armed knuckleball specialist
   will get the nod.

Closer Matt Mantei, R:
Mantei was very effective last year, but he has a huge injury history.  If he
can stay healthy, he’s not far off from the premier closers in the National
League.

Gonzalez is not a Hall of Fame candidate, and it’s not
likely that he’ll become one.  Neither is Lynn, but Lynn was a quality player
even into the late 80’s, though he never got the credit he deserved.  That seems
to be a common problem in the mid-70’s through late 80’s era.  Darrell Evans
really deserved some recognition too.  Anyway, being compared to Lynn is not at
all a bad thing.  Gonzalez will probably be the guy from the 90’s that goes down
unremembered by the history books.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Richie Sexson


2. Randy Johnson


3. Luis Gonzalez


4. Brandon Webb


5. Alex Cintron

A Little Extra - The Real NL Rookie of the Year

Florida’s Dontrelle Willis won the NL Rookie of the Year,
but in truth he shouldn’t have been higher than third.  Obviously Willis got a
lot of attention with his flamboyant personality and hypnotizing delivery, but
he really flamed out after the All-Star break.  Scott Posednik of the Brewers
finished second based on a .314 batting average, 43 stolen bases, and 100 runs
scored.  Second is were he should have been.  The best NL rookie in 2003 though
was Brandon Webb.  Willis’ record of 14 and 6 looks way better than Webb’s 10
and 9, but Webb had a better ERA (2.84 to 3.31).  That gap is really bigger than
it appears when you consider that Webb pitched most of his games in one of the
three best hitter’s parks, while Willis pitched most of his in one of the three
best pitcher’s parks.  Webb also wins the WHIP comparison (1.15 to 1.29).  Their
strikeouts per inning and walk to strikeout ratios were similar, though Webb
still comes out ahead in both categories (.952 to .884 K per inning; 2.53 to
2.45 K/BB).  The only reason Willis’ record looks better is a better offense
behind him, a better bullpen, and luck..  Webb’s ERA was 4^th best in
the league while his WHIP was good for 6^th.  The guys ahead of him in
those categories had names like Schilling, Prior, Brown, Schmidt, and Vazquez. 
If that’s not Rookie of the Year material, I don’t know what is.

2004 San Francisco Giants

The Bottom Line:
How this team ran away with the NL West last year is a mystery to me. They’re old, they’re injury-riddled, and besides Bonds and Schmidt, no regular players put up a good year. The best the people of San Francisco can expect is a few home run milestones from Bonds, because this team is no better than third place. I just don’t see how the Giants can compete. I know Felipe Alou has a reputation for doing more with less, but on paper this is barely even a third place team.

Line Up:

This line up still boasts the presence of Barry Bonds, and
that means a lot, but there’s not one other intimidator on the team.  Some
experts still feel the Giants can win the division, but I just don’t see it. 
The Giant teams that have made the playoffs the last few years always had a
strong offense and just better than average pitching.  The pitching isn’t any
better than in years past, but it is now better than the offense.

1. Ray Durham, 2B: The player we saw last year was
   along way off from the 20 home runs and 20 steals we’re used to.  I’m not
   ready to say that he’s done, but he needs to prove himself in a big way.


2. A.J. Pierzynski, C: The Giants really need his
   .312 batting average to make it to the NL.  As a fantasy player, he’ll be
   more valuable if he gets to bat second.


3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B: Alfonzo had a tough time
   moving from the east coast to the west.  Batting in front of Bonds will make
   a big difference.


4. Barry Bonds, LF: His offense speaks for itself,
   but he’ll be all alone this year.  The home runs and walks will be there,
   but look for another decline in runs scored and RBI’s.


5. Marquis Grissom, CF: He keeps getting it done
   every year.


6. Jeffrey Hammonds, RF: Dustan Mohr will take
   over when Hammonds goes down.


7. J.T. Snow, 1B: How is this guy still in the
   league.  It was cute to have the defense only first basemen when the rest of
   the offense could compensate, but it’s just unacceptable.  Pedro Feliz could
   relieve him of his duties.


8. Neifi Perez, SS: At least defense only is still
   acceptable at shortstop.

Pitching:

The Giants didn’t really know how to act when one of their
pitchers emerged as a true ace, so they did what any one else would: slam him in
the media – that’ll keep him happy.  After Schmidt, this is the standard San
Francisco rotation, which was good enough when they had hitters, but it won’t be
enough anymore. 

1. Jason Schmidt, R: He was the most efficient
   pitcher in baseball last year.  The Giants sure need him to do it again. 
   The only concern is his elbow and its recovery from offseason surgery.  The
   experts say he’ll be 100%.


2. Kirk Rueter, L: Let the mediocrity begin.


3. Jerome Williams, R: He’s entering his second
   year.  His numbers were respectable through 21 starts.


4. Brett Tomko, R: Tomko won 13 games last year,
   pitching in front of a potent Cardinal offense.  He’s unlikely to repeat
   that with this offense.  He was the Corey Lidle of the National League (13
   wins, 5.28 vs. 12 wins, 5.75)


5. Kevin Correia, R: Pitched well in seven starts
   last year.

Closer Robb Nen, R: He was
one of the very best in 2002.  He didn’t pitch a lick in 2003.

Remarkably Similar:

There’s no great comparison on
the team, but this is a good place to point out Barry Bonds’ place in history. 
He is most similar to Willie Mays, though a comparison of the two at the same
points in their careers puts Bonds way ahead.  Bonds’ most similar list has nine
Hall of Famers.  In order, they are: Mays, Frank Robinson, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron,
Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt, Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, and Reggie Jackson. 
Interestingly enough, the only none Hall of Famer on the list comes in at #6
(between Ruth and Schmidt): Rafael Palmeiro.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Barry Bonds


2. Jason Schmidt


3. Ray Durham


4. A.J. Pierzynski


5. Edgardo Alfonzo

2004 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

The Bottom Line:
The sale of the team from the FOX Corp. to Frank McCourt destroyed the Dodgers off-season. They really couldn’t do anything. They did have a great pitching staff in 2003, but only on account of the guys at FOX not knowing about it. I used to be a big Dodger fan, and they still have a place in my heart, but when the O’Malley family walked away, and FOX came in, they totally destroyed a once-proud franchise, leaving them in a spot where the best new ownership can do in 2004 is finish ahead of the Rockies for fourth place. It’s not out of the question for the Dodgers to make a move to get a big bat, but at this point, I don’t feel they can do any better than fourth.

Line Up:

This was a big weak spot for the Dodgers last year, and the
ownership change kept them from being able to make a significant improvement. 
However, they did hire Billy Beane’s right hand man, Paul DePodesta, as their
new general manager, so brighter days could be closer than you think.

1. Dave Roberts, CF: If Roberts could become a
   .280 or .290 hitter and walk a bit more, he could steal 80 bases. 
   Unfortunately, he’s a only a .250 hitter that rarely walks.  He has injury
   problems too.


2. Paul Lo Duca, C: He’s developing a pattern for
   a great first half and lousy second half.  A consistent season from start to
   finish could make him a star in the Jason Kendall mold.


3. Shawn Green, RF: No player in baseball suffered
   a bigger slide than Green.  He still had a good year, but it was far from
   what we have come to expect.  He’ll be better this year, but without Gary
   Sheffield or a comparable player batting behind him, there’s really no
   incentive for opposing pitchers to give him anything to hit.


4. Juan Encarnacion, LF: Juan is the biggest name
   the Dodgers managed to get during the winter – that’s not good.  In all
   honesty, he’s a decent player, but he’s not the kind of guy you want batting
   in the clean up spot.


5. Robin Ventura, 1B: Ventura might still have a
   purpose in baseball, but this is just not a good situation.  They do have
   Jeremy Giambi and camp and he could make Ventura expendable.


6. Adrian Beltre, 3B: How long are we supposed to
   believe that Beltre is going to be the best third baseman in baseball? 
   There is no evidence to believe the hype anymore.


7. Jose Hernandez, 2B: I just don’t see any way a
   sabermatrician type like DePodesta will be able to stomach a hitter that’s
   as bad as Hernandez.


8. Ceasar Izturis, SS: He raised his home run
   total to 1 last year.  He stands a good chance of doubling that output this
   year.

Pitching:

The excellent pitching conditions in Dodger Stadium will
not be enough to keep this group on top in the NL, as they were in 2003. 
Lightening just won’t strike twice for this bunch.

1. Hideo Nomo, R: Nomo was quietly one of the best
   pitchers in baseball last year.  He did have shoulder surgery during the
   winter, so beware.


2. Odalis Perez, L: He still has a lot of
   potential, but he could be traded to get a prime-time hitter.


3. Kazuhisa Ishii, R: His sub 4.00 ERA is amazing
   when you consider that he walked an astounding 101 batters last year.


4. Jeff Weaver, R: Weaver was the prize in the
   Kevin Brown deal.  He could become the ace of the staff, and legitimate ace
   at that, if he can shake the memory of his disastrous days in New York.


5. Darren Dreifort, R: Rookie prospect Edwin
   Jackson will take over when Dreifort gets hurt.

Closer Eric Gagne, R:
Simply the best.   

This more a testament to the quality of player Murphy was
than anything else.  I suspect I’ll find no objections when I say that Murphy
deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  I suspect he eventually will be, but his
election will have to come through the veterans committee, because the writers
are apparently unaware that the Braves were in fact a major league team during
the 80’s.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Eric Gagne


2. Shawn Green


3. Hideo Nomo


4. Odalis Perez


5. Juan Encarnacion

2004 Colorado Rockies Preview

The Bottom Lines:
It’s getting harder and harder to tell what the management team in Denver intends to do. Apparently they don’t intend to win, much less contend in the weakest division in the league. Every NL West team was either already better and stayed that way, or improved enough during the off-season to leave the Rockies in a dead heat by themselves for last place. This is a team that looked decent at one time. Now they seem to have a winning drive, or lack there of, rivaled only by the Pirates and Brewers. I’m uncertain about a lot of my predictions this year, but I feel confident in awarding the Rockies last place in the NL West.

Line Up:

This group of hitters will still have good numbers at the
end of the year, but they really don’t have much after Todd Helton and Preston
Wilson.  Even with the Coors Field factor, this is only the fourth best offense
in the division, and that’s only because the Dodgers are worse and they play in
the best pitchers park in the league.

1. Aaron Miles/Damien Jackson, 2B: One of these
   two will win the starting spot.  One journeyman rookie, one journeyman major
   leaguer, neither suited to be a lead off hitter, but the Rockies just don’t
   have another option.


2. Larry Walker, RF: This is pure speculation. 
   But think about, he’s lost power, but he’s a proven hitter, and he could
   benefit from being in front of Helton and Wilson instead of behind them.


3. Todd Helton, 1B: No matter what league, no
   matter what ballpark, he’s the best hitting first baseman in baseball.  He’s
   a gold glover too.


4. Preston Wilson, CF: It’s bad when you have to
   drive in 141 runs to end the season with more RBI’s than strikeouts (139),
   but then again, a National League leading 141 RBI’s can make you forget a
   lot of things.  He led the team in stolen bases too (14).


5. Jeromy Burnitz, LF: Here’s my guess: 47 home
   runs, .260 batting average, 150 strikeouts.


6. Vinny Castilla, 3B: He won’t return to his 45
   homer days that he had in his first tour with Colorado, but he could get
   back to 35 pretty easily.


7. Charles Johnson, C: How can you play in Coors
   Field and only hit .230?  It’s not going to get better.  Johnson is through.


8. Royce Clayton, SS: He still plays great
   defense, but Coors is not going to make him a hitter.

Pitching:

This is always a sore spot in Denver, and I don’t know that
anything can be done about it.  They need to find 11 guys with a
closer-mentality, that just don’t care if they end the year with a 5.00+ ERA. 
The hitter’s park argument just doesn’t hold that much water when you consider
that the visiting pitchers have to deal with the same thing.  They just have
consistently bad pitching.

1. Jason Jennings, R: Improved control would make
   him great, even here.  His 5.11 ERA is really pretty good.  Unfortunately,
   that’s the last compliment I have for the Colorado pitchers


2. Joe Kennedy, L: Even on a last place team, a 3
   and 12 record with a 6.13 ERA is really bad.  (That was Tampa Bay, not
   Colorado.)


3. Chin-Hui Tsao, R: A rookie prospect with a lot
   of promise.  He’ll need a lot of toughness to not be ruined by the results
   of the upcoming season.


4. Shawn Estes, L: Non-roster invitee looking for
   a chance.


5. Jeff Fassero, L: Same as above.

Closer Shawn Chacon, R: I
just don’t understand why you’d turn your best starter from a year ago into your
closer.  He will get some saves though.

Two years ago, I thought Walker was a shoe-in for the
Hall.  Now I’m not so sure.  Injuries have killed him, and whether for good or
ill, he’ll probably be tainted in the eyes of the writers because he played at
Coors (that’s a terrible argument, but that won’t stop them).  As for Klein, he
is in the Hall. He played from 1928-1944, mostly for the Phillies.  He only made
the All-Star team twice, but he won the NL MVP in 1932 and the Triple Crown in
1933 with .368/28/130.  In that season, he also led OBP, SLG, hits, and
doubles.  He had 170 RBI’s in 1930 (that was the same year Hack Wilson drove in
191).  You might be wondering why you’ve never heard of this guy.  The simple
answer is that his numbers, like Walker’s, are inflated.  Klein played most of
his career in the other, probably more prolific, offensive era in the games
history, the 1930’s.  Furthermore, the Phillies played in the Baker Bowl, which
had respectable dimensions in left field (341) and center (408), but had a tiny
right field, being 281 at the corner and 300 in right center.  Klein was a
left-handed hitter.  The normal conclusion says that if Klein is in, Walker
deserves to be in.  My conclusion is that Klein probably does not deserve to be
in.  I had no idea their circumstances would be so similar when I started this
paragraph.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Todd Helton


2. Preston Wilson


3. Larry Walker


4. Jeromy Burnitz


5. Vinny Castilla

American League Central Preview

What follows is a few of my thoughts and predictions for the AL Central in the upcoming season. Please forgive me for discrepancies in the format.

2004 Minnesota Twins Preview

The Bottom Line:

The 2004 Twins will not be as tough as the ’02 or ’03 squads, but they should have enough left to remain on top in the AL Central. They’ll still be mostly a speed and defense oriented team. Plus they’re a year older, and for the Twins that means more experience and expected improvement – not deterioration. They probably won’t blow anybody away, and they might start out slow like they did last year, but they’ll be right there at the end of September, scaring the pants off of some big money team from the East or the West.

Line Up:

The Twins boast a just enough offense.  They rely on speed
and defense and good bounces on the carpet in the Metrodome.  For the last two
years it worked, and it should work again this year.  They won’t beat you down,
but they’ll peck you to death.

1. Shannon Stewart, LF: Stewart was so good after
   coming over from Toronto in a mid-season trade that he was regularly
   mentioned in the AL MVP discussions.  He’s the best leadoff option they’ve
   had since Chuck Knoblauch, and the team’s defense is so good they can afford
   to have his center field skills in left.


2. Luis Rivas, 2B: He plays better defense than
   most of the star second baseman and hits better than most of the all-glove
   second basemen, but only a little on both counts.


3. Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B: He’s not what you’d
   expect from a first baseman, but he has the ability to win a batting title
   some day to go along 20 to 25 home runs.  He’ll also become the perennial
   gold glove first baseman when John Olerud steps aside.  Real line up
   protection would work wonders for him.


4. Corey Koskie, 3B: It’s beginning to look like
   his monster year in 2000 (I’m using the term monster loosely, but it was a
   good year) was an aberration, while less power and nagging injuries are
   becoming the norm.


5. Torii Hunter, CF: Now that Mike Cameron has
   moved to the NL, Hunter is the undisputed best center fielder in the
   league.  A little plate discipline would make him an MVP caliber player, but
   until then, he’s just a second-rate hitter.


6. Matt LeCroy, DH: I don’t know why the Twins
   haven’t developed any great power hitters, but they haven’t, which leaves
   LeCroy as their best option for this spot.  He has 30+ homer potential, but
   he’s really not the sort of player to be the power guy on the team. 
   For you fantasy players out there, he does qualify at catcher.


7. Jacque Jones, RF: Jones is the emotional soul
   of the team.  Though he’s a free swinger, he tends to catch fire and be
   among the best in the league for six weeks per season – other than that,
   he’s just slightly above average.


8. Joe Mauer, C: The Twins have so much faith
   Mauer is ready they traded away their All-Star catcher A.J. Pierzynski. 
   He’s being billed as a Mike Piazza that plays defense too.  Maybe later, but
   probably not in 2004.


9. Christian Guzman, SS: At one time, Guzman
   looked as though he deserved to be in listed with the group of elite AL
   shortstops.  Injury problems have hurt his season totals the past two years,
   but he still led the AL in triples. 

Pitching:

They have a solid core of young pitchers and a pretty good
bullpen despite the losses of Latroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado.  Beside Brad
Radke, most of the rotation is inexperienced, but the Twins have had a good
record of developing quality pitchers in the last few years.  Even if their four
and five guys are a total bust, they’ll still have the best pitching in the
division.

1. Brad Radke, R: No one deserves these days of
   Minnesota success more than Radke.  His still decent, but he’s no longer the
   best pitcher on the staff.


2. Johan Santana, L: He’s the ace of the future, A
   Cy Young caliber prospect, and that future could be 2004.


3. Kyle Lohse, R: Another great prospect with good
   numbers in his limited experience.  I still don’t know how to say his name.


4. Carlos Silva, R: Silva will be trying to become
   a starter after making 61 appearances for the Phillies last year.


5. Rick Helling, R: Anybody remember that Helling
   won 20 games for the Rangers five years ago?  Me neither.

Closer Joe Nathan, R:
Nathan came over in the Pierzynski deal after being very effective out of the
pen in San Francisco.  He’s never closed before, but the Twins believe he’s the
man for job.  They have J.C. Romero as a backup.

Martinez is not in the Hall of Fame, and the chances of him
making it are slim.  Radke is not likely to ever make it either, but his career
numbers would be a lot better had he not spent all of those nine years in
Minnesota.  The Twins, given the overall youth of the team, lack any better
player comparisons.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Johan Santana


2. Shannon Stewart


3. Doug Mientkiewicz


4. Torii Hunter


5. Joe Mauer

2004 Kansas City Royals Preview

The Bottom Line:

The Royals shocked us all last year, as they managed to be playing meaningful games in the last two weeks of the season. They won’t surprise anybody this year, but in the weak AL Central they should be able to walk away with second place and maybe even win the division if their stars can stay healthy.

Line Up:

The Royal’s line up is there strength.  Eight of the nine
hitters have power, and four of them have speed.  Three of them are consistent
.300+ hitters, and two others could do so. 

1. Angel Berroa, SS: Berroa won the 2003 AL Rookie
   of the Award with numbers reminiscent of a younger Edgar Renteria – a little
   speed, a little power, and decent average, and a pretty good glove.  To say
   that he’ll become as good as Renteria is a stretch, but it could happen.


2. Joe Randa, 3B: Randa, though he’s yet to be
   used at this place in the line up, looks like he’ll be an ideal #2 hitter. 
   He’s patient at the plate


3. Carlos Beltran, CF: After several years of
   trade rumors the Royals decided to keep Beltran around to give them a chance
   to contend in the AL Central.  A full season with all three members of the
   middle of the line up could easily put them there.


4. Mike Sweeney, 1B: He’s right there with the
   premier first baseman in baseball when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been able
   to do that for a whole season in a while.


5. Juan Gonzalez, RF: The one-year contract should
   keep him productive and healthy.  He’s the pioneer in what seems to be a
   growing trend with Latin players.  I’m not saying all Latin players are like
   Juan, but more and more of them seem to be following his lead.


6. Ken Harvey, DH: The poor man’s David Ortiz.


7. Aaron Guiel, LF: Guiel looked good in the
   second half with 15 homers, 52 RBI, and a .277 batting average.


8. Benito Santiago, C: Of course he’s not the
   catcher of the future, but his numbers in 2003 really weren’t that far off
   from the tier 3 group (Molina, Lo Duca, Pierzynski, and Hernandez).


9. Desi Relaford, 2B: Here’s the next Mark
   McLemore.  That might not sound that impressive to you, but wait until he
   plays for your team (and he will someday) and you’ll see what an asset he
   can be.

Rotation:

This is the weak spot.  They have two questionable veterans
and three unproven prospects. 

1. Brian Anderson, L: In general, the rotation is
   a weakness, but this group kept them in the hunt into September.  Anderson
   was sharp down the stretch.


2. Darrell May, L: if May can duplicate his 3.77
   ERA and 210 innings he’ll probably win more than the 10 games he had last
   year.


3. Kevin Appier, R: Appier is the most underrated
   pitcher of the last ten years (look at the numbers – he stacks up quite
   nicely).  He’s 36, so it’s not out of the question for him to have a few
   more good seasons.


4. Jeremy Affeldt, L: Affeldt is considered there
   ace of the future.  In order to do that he’ll need to stay healthy first.


5. Miguel Asencio, R: Another prospect.  He’s only
   23, but he’s yet to show anything impressive.

Appier is not Hall of Fame
material.  If had he been on another team he would have a better won/loss record
and more exposure and that could have put him in the Hall.  Besides Greg Maddux,
he’s the only pitcher to be better than the league ERA for eight straight years
(1990-1997).

Fantasy Top Five:

1. Carlos Beltran


2. Mike Sweeney


3. Angel Berroa


4. Juan Gonzalez


5. Joe Randa

Mike Sweeney hit .293 and drove in 83 runs in only 108
games in 2003.  Those are decent totals, but still, he did miss 54 games.  How
would the Royals have done if Sweeney had been with them the whole season?  The
answer is, they would have done a little better, but not well enough to put them
past the Twins.  The Royals ended 2003 at 83 and 79 and finished 7 games behind
the Twins.  With Sweeney, they were 56 and 52 (.519); without him, they were 27
and 27.  If Sweeney had played 162 games, and they maintained the .519 pace they
had during the 108 games he did play, that would give them a record of 84 and
77.  Even if those two extra wins had come against the Twins, it just wouldn’t
have been enough.  On another note, the Royals did hit better than any other
team with runners in scoring position (.304).

2004 Chicago White Sox Preview

The Bottom Line:
Maybe it’s just a personal bias, but I believe the White Sox will again under-achieve. Last year the White Sox finished second when many expected them to finish first. This year, second would be a dream come true, but third is more likely. This will be another tough year on the south side. I’m predicting they’ll make to third, and I’m sure many analysts will call them wild-card hopefuls, but really, fourth place isn’t out of the question.

Line Up:

The White Sox are just slightly above average on offense. 
The problem is that they have a history of chocking.  In addition, Magglio
Ordonez will be a free agent at the end of the year, which makes him a likely
trade target if the Sox stumble out of the gate, and Frank Thomas want to leave
too.

1. Aaron Rowand, CF: Rowand is not a real leadoff
   hitter, he’s just the best option they have.  He’s really not even assured
   of a full time job since the Sox have a few prospects that need some playing
   time too.


2. Joe Crede, 2B: Crede is still a great prospect
   and 2004 could be the year.  He had decent numbers in his first full season
   and should be able to improve on them, although he is not really a good fit
   in the #2 hole, but like Rowand at the top, they just don’t have another
   good option.


3. Magglio Ordonez, RF: With free agency looming,
   a career year could be on the horizon.


4. Frank Thomas, DH: Somehow keeps producing big
   numbers.


5. Carlos Lee, LF: Lee is the prize of the
   organization since he has to stay and he’s not yet too expensive.  He led
   the team in RBI’s (113), stolen bases (18), and runs (100) last year to go
   along with a .291 average and 31 home runs.  He’s just hitting his prime.


6. Paul Konerko, 1B: It’s almost impossible for
   him to not do better than he did last year.


7. Jose Valentin, SS: Should continue to get his
   usual .240 with 25 homers, 75 RBI’s and 120 strikeouts.  Like Ordonez, he’s
   a likely trade candidate.


8. Miguel Olivo, C: The experts believe he’ll
   become a real good player, but his first full season was far from
   impressive. 


9. Juan Uribe, 2B: Came over from Colorado.  Good
   glove, nothing else.

Pitching:

They’ll probably be right about average here too.  Esteban
Loaiza will come back to earth, and Mark Buehrle should rebound from his down
year to give them two solid and occasionally spectacular pitchers.  The others
have potential to be decent but probably not great.  The closer role is quite
unsettled. 

1. Mark Buehrle, L: He managed to be among the
   league leaders in innings and had a 4.14 ERA, which is not terrible in this
   day and age.  He did have some bad luck throughout the year and serious
   control problems at the beginning, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t
   bounce back.


2. Esteban Loaiza, R: He will probably be decent,
   but there’s no way he’ll come close to his amazing performance from last
   year.


3. Jon Garland, R: Just a 30% improvement in his
   strikeout to walk ratio would make him a very solid pitcher.  Until that
   happens he’s nothing more than an inning eater.


4. Scott Schoenweis, L: Hopes that he can return
   to the rotation after two solid years in the Anaheim pen.  He is a Cardinal
   product, so beware.


5. Felix Diaz, R: Was decent in AAA last year and
   is a way better option than Dan Wright.

Closer Who Knows? I think
it will be Damaso Marte, but they’ve still got Billy Koch, and they signed the
Japanese save leader Shingo Takatsu.

I could have gone another direction with Thomas, but I felt
this comparison was too remarkable to pass up.  At this point, Bagwell is
better, but Thomas has a good shot at making the Hall too.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Magglio Ordonez


2. Carlos Lee


3. Frank Thomas


4. Esteban Loaiza


5. Mark Buehrle

2004 Detroit Tigers Preview

The Bottom Line:

The Tigers will be better this year. Seriously, how could they be worse? They narrowly missed setting the mark for the worst team of all-time, so they’re bound to be better. I’ll go ahead and say that they’ll make a 20-game improvement. Unfortunately, that would still be about 95 losses and a decent shot at last place in the AL Central. But I really believe they’re a lot better. They could be as good as third place, but I’ll play it safe and say that they’ll end up in fourth.

Line Up:

The top five hitters could be really good if they stay
healthy; that’s something that all five guys have had trouble with in their
careers.  This team was last in defense in 2003, but the additions of Pudge,
Guillen, and Vina might be enough to bring them to the middle of the pack.  Keep
in mind that the whole team, offensively, is better than their numbers reflect
as they play in one of the premier pitcher’s park in the game.

1. Fernando Vina, 2B: Had Vina been healthy in
   2003, he could have given the Cardinals a record five Gold Gloves.  He’s
   really not an ideal leadoff hitter but he will be a big improvement on
   Detroit’s league-worst defense.


2. Carlos Guillen, SS: He’s not quite as good as
   Vina, but the same benefits for Detroit apply.  Guillen and Vina might not
   seem like an impressive top two, but they’ve both batted in this part of the
   order before, and for winning teams at that.


3. Ivan Rodriguez, C: All things considered, Pudge
   could bring the Tigers up to third place and make them a .500 team.  He’ll
   improve the teams ERA by half a run.


4. Dmitri Young, DH: Young should see an
   improvement in his statistics from last year, just by having some guys to
   drive in and some other to drive him in.


5. Rondell White, LF: White has played over 125
   games a season for back-to-back years, something he has never done before in
   his 11-year career.  If he can do it again, he’s good for 20 homers and 90
   RBI.


6. Bobby Higginson, RF: No matter what he does in
   2004, you have to feel for a guy that’s entering his 10^th
   straight season in Detroit.  They haven’t been over .500 in the Higginson
   era.


7. Eric Munson, 3B: 18 home runs and 50 RBI’s,
   despite the .240 batting average, was really pretty good for 99 games in
   Detroit.  His defense will still kill them.


8. Carlos Pena, 1B: He’s like Munson on the other
   side of the field, though his defensive shortcomings can’t hurt them as much
   at first.


9. Alex Sanchez, CF: Sanchez stole 52 bases last
   year between the Brewers and Tigers and nobody noticed.  He could become the
   leadoff hitter before the end of the season.

Pitching:

This bunch might surprise us.

1. Jason Johnson, R: Johnson was brought in to
   provide some leadership and stability in a young rotation.  Yikes.  In all
   fairness, he did look good for the Orioles in the second half.


2. Mike Maroth, L: The rest of the group is filled
   with promising prospects.  They can’t help but to have better years than
   2003.


3. Nate Cornejo, R


4. Jeremy Bonderman, R


5. Nate Robertson, L

Closer Fernando Rodney, R:
There’s really no reason to believe he’s better than other Detroit options.  I
guess he’s the only one that hasn’t failed in the role.

Obviously not a Hall of Fame case – just an interesting
comparison.  Alou’s numbers are from his first nine seasons, not his entire
career.

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Ivan Rodriguez


2. Dmitri Young


3. Rondell White


4. Fernando Vina


5. Carlos Guillen

Tigers Statistical Tidbit

The Tigers, of course, finished one game better than the
1962 Mets for the dubious distinction of having the worst single-season record
of all time (Tigers: 43-119, Mets 42-120).  One game is not a lot of difference;
the Tigers could have been a much worse team than the Mets and luck be the
reason the Tigers record was slightly better.  In 2003, the Tigers, as a team,
finished last in the AL in batting average and errors committed and second to
last in ERA (The Texas Rangers were last – 5.66).  The 1962 Mets were last in
all three categories, but by what margin?  That is, which team finished worse
compared to the league average?  Interestingly enough, the two teams had the
exact same batting average - .240, but the NL average in 1962 was .261, while
the AL average in 2003 was .267, so in this category the Mets have the edge
being .006 points better than the Tigers compared to league average.  The Tigers
had a worse ERA than the Mets, 5.30 to 5.04, however the 60’s was a pitching
friendly decade, while our current era favors hitters.  The Tigers allowed three
quarters of a run more per game (0.77) than the league average (4.53), while the
Mets were a full run (1.01) worse than the league, so the edge goes to Detroit. 
In the field, the Tigers made 138 errors while the Mets made 210.  The Tigers
made 33 more errors than average (105), while the Mets made 55 more (league
average of 165).  The edge again goes to the Tigers.  On an interesting side,
from this we can see how the level of defensive play has changed in the last 40
years.  The 138 errors that the Tigers made in 2003 would have been good enough
to finish second in the NL in 1962 (the Milwaukee Braves were best with “only”
123).  From these stats we can conclude that the Mets were worse than the
Tigers, but those stats are not the bottom line.  Baseball is ultimately about
scoring and allowing runs.  The Mets scored 0.65 fewer runs and they allowed
1.41 runs more per game than NL average for a total of 2.06.  The Tigers scored
1.21 less and allowed 0.87 more runs than the AL average for a total of  2.08. 
Is there a conclusion to this?  I think so – the only difference between the two
teams was a little bit of luck.  The Tigers could easily have finished 39-121
and become the worst of all time, but the baseball fates smiled on them and
saved them a small amount of embarrassment – but not much.

2004 Cleveland Indians Preview

The Indians are now entering year two of their rebuilding phase. While they seem to be headed in the right direction, 2004 will likely be another year at the bottom of the AL Central. This year, it will fifth place instead of fourth.

Line Up:

The hitters and the pitchers are in the same place. 
They’re looking for experience and trying to develop skill at the major league
level.

1. Milton Bradley, CF: Bradley played very well
   for the first half of the season, hitting .321 with 10 homers and 17 stolen
   bases, but injuries caused him to miss 61 games in the second half.  He
   plays great defense, and at only 26, he’s among the first of the young
   Indian players to start paying off.  He’s a great leadoff hitter, but he
   can’t provide what an Ichiro-type can because of the weak line up around
   him, but he’s the reigning MVP of this team.


2. Omar Vizquel, SS: Omar is the last remnant of
   the great Cleveland teams in the late nineties, and he’s beginning to show
   his age.  He’s passed the Gold Glove torch on to A-Rod, and had several knee
   surgeries that ultimately cost him a chance to go to Seattle.  While he’s
   likely to rebound from a disastrous 2003, he’s not likely to return to his
   pre-2000 form. 


3. Matt Lawton, DH: Lawton hasn’t played well
   since he left the Twins in the middle of the 2001 season.  He’s really not
   even assured of having a fulltime job.  He could DH or play left field, but
   the Indians have young prospects that deserve the time more than him.


4. Jody Gerut, RF: Gerut led the team in home runs
   (22) and RBI (75).  He suffers from the normal young player problems like
   plate discipline, and it remains to be seen if he can make the proper
   adjustments.  Those same issues apply to the rest of the team, with Blake,
   Broussard, and potential DH/1B Travis Hafner being power types like Gerut,
   and Ludwick, Bard, and Phillips not so much.


5. Casey Blake, 3B


6. Ben Broussard, 1B


7. Ryan Ludwick, LF


8. Josh Bard, C


9. Brandon Phillips, 2B

Rotation:

1. C.C. Sabathia, L: Sabathia is the ace of the
   staff and is truly worthy of the title, which is not usually the case for #1
   starters on bad teams.  He still has fantasy value even without a fantastic
   won/loss record because of his strike out rate, ERA, and the innings he
   logs.  He completed three full seasons, and he’s not yet 24.


2. Jason Davis R: The team has high hopes for a
   great future for both Davis and Lee, but they do not yet have much a major
   league track record.


3. Cliff Lee, L


4. Jason Stanford, L: Stanford and Westbrook are
   prospects too, but they are not as highly regarded as the previous two
   entries.


5. Jake Westbrook, R

Closer Bob Wickman, R:
Wickman hasn’t been the closer since mid-2002 and didn’t even throw an inning in
2003.  He’s always been a reliable guy, and the spot belongs to him by default.

Bancroft is in the Hall of Fame for his overall play from
1915-1930, when standards at shortstop were quite different.  This comparison is
not an appeal to but Vizquel in the Hall, it’s just showing that in another era
he could have been.

1. C.C. Sabathia


2. Milton Bradley


3. Jody Gerut


4. Casey Blake


5. Ben Broussard

I believe C.C. Sabathia is a very good pitcher.  I believe
he could become a great pitcher.  On concern many analysts have these days about
young pitchers is their work load, and Sabathia has not been abused in that
regard as some other young pitchers have (see A.J. Burnett).  In his three years
he’s pitched 180, 210, and 198 innings.  That’s plenty of work, but not so much
that he’ll be worn out.  He’s 43 and 25 in his first three seasons – two of
those years the Indians have been terrible.  Meanwhile, his other key indicators
have moved in the appropriate direction in most cases: his ERA has gone down the
last three years, his wild pitches have gone down the last three years, and
while his strike outs have declined too, so have his walks.  He’s done all of
this already and he won’t be 23 until the middle of the season.  I’m not saying
he’s a Hall of Famer; I’m just saying he could become one. 

The Opposite End of the Spectrum

In the previous post, we had seven solid nominations for whiney/selfish/punk atheletes. But who are the good guys. I know they seem harder to find, but it's not really that hard. In truth, the majority of the sports figures out there keep a low profile and so we really can't say. So I guess I'm not calling for nominations for non-whiners; I want to know who the real good guys are.

As for me, I have a baseball nomination and a basketball nomination: Jamie Moyer and Tim Duncan.

The Greatest Whiner of All-Time

Sporst history is littered with bad sports, big whiners, and overall selfish individuals. In this day and age, there are so many it can make you sick. But the elite guys - the guys who are the worst sports, the biggest whiners, and the most selfish individuals on the planet - they've really become entertaining. While baseball and football have a few guys whose selfishness occassionally elicits a smirk, the NBA is leading the way.

Part of the fun about these guys is that in addition to all those character flaws, they're stupid too. All I can do is sit back and laugh. So who's the legend in this field? Who is the greatest of all time? You might think it's Shaquille O'Neal, and you'd have a solid case, but you'd be wrong. For my money, there's no finer specimen than Allen Iverson. He does it all: He's a ballhog on the court, he runs coaches out of town, he doesn't like to practice, he gets into trouble with the law, and he even dresses like a punk. I just spent 30 minutes looking for a website that had some audio clips and I never found one. What a disappointment. Here's my own tribute.

All bad sports and whiners in the history of sports just apale in comparison to you and others that come along will have huge shoes to fill. You have set the standard and we salute you, Allen Iverson.

Sorry About the Colors

The worst part is, I don't have time right now to fix it.

13 Baseball Books You Should Probably Read

I've read lots of baseball books over the years, and some of them are truly worth reading. If you're an aspiring baseball historian, philosopher, or analyst, these books are essential. In many cases, I own these books, and I would happily loan them to trustworthy locals.

This is not a "Top 13" list. It's just a list of 13 largely different books that I think are really good.

Biography/Autobiography
Generally, I prefer the Autobiographies, but even those can be risky. I read Sammy Sosa's Sosa, and it was terrible. He told his story, and that's fine, but it was in no way a contribution to the world of baseball books. I've selected three in this category. I'm sure there are many more that belong here. I know of several that I don't have that I really want to read, chief of which is Jackie Robinson's I Never Had it Made.
Comeback, Dave Drevecky, 1990, Zondervan: It's been years since I've read this one, but I remember enjoying it. It's not your typical "I was a poor boy from a broken home that became the greatest" autobiography. Drevecky wasn't the greatest. He had moments when he was very good, but he was never great. He is a solid Christian, and he dealt with tremendous adversity, and that's what makes this a good read.

You're Out and You're Ugly Too, Durwood Merrill, 1998, St. Martin's Press: I don't know of many umpire books out there, and Merrill's 20+ years as an umpire qualifies him to write such a book. Maybe there are a lot of other better umpire books, but this is the only one I've ever seen.

Veeck as in Wreck, Bill Veeck, 1962, Putnam: My general feeling is that the best of this category will be about players and executives that were truly influential. Any list of significant baseball executives must include Veeck - read the book and you'll know why. He is also well read in the classics and that comes through in his writing style.

History
While general baseball history books have some value, they generally don't go very deep into the real stories of the game. Normally, this is what you'll find: The NL started in 1876 - the players didn't wear gloves. The in 1901 the AL joined in and that made people in the NL mad. Ty Cobb became a star and he was mean because he was from the South. Then Babe Ruth was sold to the Yankees and he started hitting home runs all the time and was a generally colorful character. After that, some of the games stars, like Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams went to war. Jackie Robinson. In 1951 Booby Thompson hit a big home run and "The Giants Win the Pennant." These were the days when baseball in New York was good, but it wasn't good anywhere else. The Dodgers and Giants left for California. Curt Flood challenged the anti-trust laws and Marvin Miller headed up the players union, and we're to the part of baseball you know about. You can find plenty of books to tell you that, and sometimes they can do it in fewer words than I just did. If you want to read one of those, only read one. If you want to know the real stories and issues, check out one of these:

The New Biographical History of Baseball, Donald Dewey and Nicholas Acocella, 2002, Triumph Books: This book is not one that you'll sit down and read cover to cover, but you'll have fun perusing it and use it for a reference. The writers sometimes have a liberal agenda, but they give a good synopsis of a player's or executive's significance in the history of the game. This is a 475-page hardback book that's on the sale rack for $6.97 at Books-A-Million right now.

Baseball, An Illustrated History, Geoffrey Ward and Ken Burns, 1994, Knopf: This is the companion book to the 9-hour documentary. The cover every era, and look deeply into the stories. While they include the facts, they also tell about the social influences that came from the game as well. If could recommend one general history, it would be this one.

The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James, 2001, Free Press: Like the listing above, this book covers every era of the game, but from a completely different angle. It assumes that you already know a lot of the history. It also has an introduction to win shares and his top-100 lists at every position. It's a weighty book, but it will change the way you think about the game. Read Ward and Burns first, and then read this, and you eyes will be opened.

Analysis and Commentary
This is the category I most enjoy. Most of these guys are coming from outside baseball and looking deeply at one particular issue.

Men at Work, George Will, 1990, McMillan Publishing: Will takes an in-depth look at the thinking-man's baseball. He looks closely at Tony LaRussa as the smart manager, Orel Hershiser as the smart pitcher, Tony Gwynn as the smart hitter, and Cal Ripken as the smart fielder. I really need to read it again.

Fair Ball, Bob Costas, 2000, Broadway Books: This is largely about the broken economic conditions in baseball as it now stands. At the end of the book, you'll be convinced that the owners could be right if they wanted to, the wild-card system stinks, and that Bob Costas really should be the next commissioner. This one is short too, you read it all in about three hours.

What Ever Happened to the Hall of Fame?, Bill James, 1994, Fireside: James talks about what the Hall is, how it got that way, what it should be, and how to get there. He also shows several methods we can use to determine whether or not a player should be in the Hall of Fame. Anything by James is well worth reading.

Moneyball, Michael Lewis, 2003, W.W. Norton and Company: This book has created a bit of a stir, and the baseball establishment hates it. Lewis attempts to explain why Billy Beane and the A's have been such a good team with such a low payroll. The answer is that the A's have a better understanding about players and their abilities than anybody else.

Odd and Ends

Bunts, George Will, 1998, Scribner: This is a compilation of short baseball pieces that Will has written over the years. It includes a long response to Will's Men at Work written by Yale history scholar Donald Kagen. Will then responds to Kagen.

Out By a Step, Mike and Neil Shalin, 2002, Diamond Communications: This is a list of 100 players that are not in the Hall of Fame that should be. They have them listed in order and then make their case about each one.

The Big Book of Baseball Lineups, Rob Neyer, 2003, Fireside: This is a rather simple concept: Neyer takes every franchise and builds their all-time team, second team, all-bust team, all-rookie team, and so on. He also includes an essay about each team. To lend Neyer credibility, he was Bill James' assistant for four years.

A Few Baseball Thoughts

In general, I'm sorry for the long delay. In addition to being very busy and suffering serious computer problems for almost two days, I've kind of been saving up my standard preseason baseball talk for after the DFB draft, which isn't until March 25th. I assure you when that time comes, I'll have a complete season preview with various special features. Until then, I have a few odd thoughts about preseason baseball and steroids.

I find it amazing how players that are injury prone don't really seem to have one area that bothers them; they're just unlucky. Jeffrey Hammonds, who has missed 263 games in the last three years, reported to camp in great shape and ready to go. He broke his hand in the first week of training and will miss 6 to 8 weeks.

I read a report that said a man in Florida paid $500 for one ticket to a Yankees/Red Sox spring training game.

I'm becoming more convinced of the line of argument that I used here that championships, whether World Series, Super Bowl, anything, are really bogus. At this point, I believe it's more impressive to get to the playoffs (NBA and NHL excluded) than to actually win it all. Getting there means you were one of the best teams over the long haul. Winning just means you were really good that month. Statistically speaking, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would defeat the Yankees in a seven-game series 15% of the time.

I just finished reading Michael Lewis' Moneyball. In case you don't know, it's about the A's and how they've managed to produce a consistent winner despite their tiny budget. When I originally heard of the book, I was hesitant to agree with the premise that the A's are successful because of their postseason failure. But now I've modified my position on that because, as I said above, championships don't mean that much.

As for the steroids, player’s union rep Gene Orza actually mocked the hubbub about steroids by saying something to the effect of, "Why should we ban steroids? We don't ban cigarettes. They're bad for your body." Well golly gee, Gene, you pushed that straw man all the way down. We don't care about steroids because they might be bad for an athlete’s body. We care because it's cheating. Sheesh, in most cases (especially football) just playing the sport is bad for your body.

Bud Selig and MLBPA chief Donald Fehr, along with their NFL counterparts appeared before Congress yesterday to answer questions about the current problems. The best I can tell, the NFL people were only there to keep it from seeming as though Congress was singling out MLB. The attack was led by Arizona Senator John McCain who nailed Fehr to the wall. At one point he asked Fehr if the Union would go back to the negotiating table with the owners to revisit their drug plan made in their 2002 agreement. Fehr said, I have a number of things to say in response to that. . ." to which McCain interrupted, "Yes or no would be a good start."

McCain also forced Fehr to give the okay for players to take drug tests independently, a la Damon Staudamire of the NBA. I hope that some of the honorable players in baseball, like John Smoltz, will come forward and take a test to show that they're clean. I know that the general public really doesn't suspect a guy like Smoltz, but it would really put pressure on the players we do suspect.

The best possible thing that can come from this is that it could break the players union in half. We can only hope.

Steroids

If you're a sports fan of any sort, you're no doubt familiar with the recent BALCO investigation and its potential ramifications on athletes in several different sports. I am not coming out to make a guilt or innocence case for any particular party, but I think some key concepts have been ignored in the media reports, which obviously will influence the thoughts of serious and casual fans alike.

The real questions we need to ask have to do with legality, both in the US and in the individual sports entity. If players where using substances that are deemed illegal by the United States, the their authority supersedes that of MLB of NFL, and therefore the player in question is guilty and subject to civil punishment. But, if the USA has said nothing, then it's up to the governing bodies of the leagues to make that determination. When Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs and he admitted to taking Androsteindione, what was the big deal? The substance was not banned by the government or MLB. That fact might taint your opinion, but that doesn't mean McGwire cheated.

There's another problem with the objectors to "performance enhancing drugs," and that is, just what are they talking about? There is an impression, it seems to me, that all athletes should have impeccable physiques that are 100% natural. I don't believe there can be such a thing. It's quite likely that players today, or thirty years ago, have access to vitamin supplements that were not available to athletes 80 years ago. Is that a violation? Does that create an unfair advantage for one generation over another? Sure it does, but so what? That's life. Racecars go a whole lot fast than they used to, and they'll probably go even faster in the future. The reason is simply advancement in technology that allows them to do so, and nobody suggest that NASCAR drivers go back to driving cars that max out at 45 mph. I know that some could say that cars and bodies are different, and that would be true. But in the context of this discussion, is that really the case?

I am not coming out in favor of steroids or human growth hormone or anything else that might make a player better. I just want to expose the myth. If it's not against the rules, it's not cheating. The notion that every athlete should be 100% natural ultimately breaks down to the point were each participant needs to have regulated diet with the same proportion of carbohydrates, fats, and proteins so that we can know that every player is working from an equal opportunity.

That still leaves the issue of what we should think of McGwire and andro or Bonds and whatever performance enhancing substance he's taking, and I don't know how to answer that. It does cast some doubt in my mind as to the integrity of the game itself, but my beef is with what MLB allows, not that players take advantage of what they allow. I've made the same argument about the Yankees and money. I wish they couldn't significantly outspend every other team every single year, but the fact that they can is the fault of MLB, not George Steinbrenner.