January 30, 2004

Ooh, Me!

Can anybody wait for the Super Bowl Half-Time Show?

Posted by at 08:46 AM | Comments (5)

January 26, 2004

Kickin' it Old School

It seemed like 1994 all over again. Today I listened to the Stone Temple Pilots' Purple . . . on cassette.

Posted by at 07:59 PM | Comments (6)

Tribute to Jesse Orosco

The ageless wonder has finally called it quits. Not because he was forced out – he certainly would have pitched for somebody in 2004 – but because he wanted to stop. Orosco was a front-line closer in the early 80’s, making the All-Star team in ’83 and ’84, and saving two games for the Mets in their 1986 World Series victory. But those accolades are not what made Orosco great. His greatness can really only be measured in terms of longevity. He began his career at age 22 for the Mets in 1979, and ended most recently for the Twins at age 46 – he would be 47 before the first month of season was over. He played for nine teams throughout his 24-year career: Mets, Dodgers, Indians, Brewers, Orioles, Cardinals, (Dodgers again), Padres, Yankees, and Twins. Along the way, he amassed a record of 87 and 80, with 144 saves, a 3.16 ERA, and 1,252 games, which is number one all-time and 181 more games than the next person on the list (Dennis Eckersley). He rarely made headlines, no teams will retire his number, he won’t receive Hall of Fame consideration, but anybody who plays 24-season deserves some sort of recognition. He can at least be a legend to me. He’s the best example that old lefties never die; they just become situational relievers for a long, long time.

Posted by at 07:57 PM | Comments (0)

January 23, 2004

Why All The Stats?

Although, the comments were lost when I switched from blogspot to chattablogs, Josh Melton, in one of our lengthy baseball debates, called into question the value of stats. I believe his actual quote was, “stats don’t mean anything.” His direct quote is wrong, but the philosophy behind it is right, that is, if I may be so bold as to interpret his meaning, stats don’t tell us everything. Or sometimes stats appear to tell us something when they may not, or they may be telling us something other than they appear to. In the fantasy baseball world, stats are everything, but in the real world of baseball they simply cannot tell us the whole story. In fantasy baseball, Yankee’s shortstop Derek Jeter is the fifth or sixth best player at his position, but in real baseball, Jeter’s value is immeasurable. The charisma with which he plays, the leadership he provides in the clubhouse, and his uncanny ability at making miracle plays right at a critical moment can’t be measured by the numbers – at least not very well. In these areas, Jeter is arguably better than Alex Rodriguez, who is generally considered to be the best shortstop across the board.


So we have a problem. Based on the raw stats, we can hardly reach a conclusion about the quality of two players from the same position, in the same league, in the same era. To complicate the problem further, if we have such problems in the A-Rod/Jeter case, how can we begin to compare players from different eras? How does Barry Bonds compare to Mike Schmidt? What about Willie Mays or even Babe Ruth? The truth is, stats don’t tell us everything. They only tell us some things, which then allows us to focus and argue about the things the stats don’t tell us.


But there’s another problem. What do the stats tell us? I argue they tell us far more than you might think, but only if we know how to use them. In truth, comparing players from the same season, or even in the same era is rather simple. We really can’t make claims about A-Rod’s leadership or “miracle” ability, since the folks he works for haven’t put him in a position to display those things. Nevertheless, the numbers explicitly tell us that A-Rod is better, and in this case they’re right. It’s not really disputable; everybody knows it, including Brian Cashman and George Steinbrenner. We can, of course, make certain adjustments for both: what ballpark did they play most of their games in? Do these ballparks make a difference? What players bat in front or behind them? Does that make a difference? Again, the greater difficulty comes when we want to compare Bonds and Ruth, but there is a way we can use the numbers to give us a better understanding than simply comparing their number of home runs or hits. (This is not the point of this article, but I want to make my position clear on the matter of Bonds and Ruth. The answer to the question of which one is better is debatable. Bonds is every bit in the category with Ruth, and maybe a few others, as to who is the greatest of all-time. However, no player, Bonds included, will ever mean more or be a greater figure of legend and baseball heroism than Babe Ruth.)

When we want to compare eras, we must remember the context of the era in which a certain player played. Though the years could be broken down further, I feel there are nine significant eras in the history of professional baseball; these eras are somewhat arbitrarily fixed by me, and the tendencies of an earlier or later era may be present at the beginning or end of the era in question. Anyway, here’s how I separate the eras:


1876-1902: early pro-ball, almost incomparable to future eras
1903-1919: The dead-ball era
1920-1941: a period of tremendous offensive achievement (key year 1930)
1942-1946: World War II era, with many great players in the service
1947-1959: a largely balanced era, most similar to the 70’s
1960-1970: the most pitching dominated era, most comparable to the dead-ball period (key year: 1968)
1971-1977: largely balanced
1978-1990: good pitching era, and the ultimate stolen base era (aberration year: 1987)
1991-Present: offensive explosion very similar to the 20’s and 30’s


There are reasons for dividing the eras as I did, but that really a subject for another project.


In each of these eras there are significant conditions that apply to the way a players statistics look, but there is a relatively simple way to measure the contribution of a pitcher or hitter in the context of the game’s history. The way to do it is to compare players to the league they played in, rather than comparing them directly to another player from another era. That means we have to approach the numbers in a different way. The question then becomes, “How do Mark McGwire’s numbers compare to the league averages of the era in which he played?” Once we’ve answered that question for McGwire and another player, say Harmon Killebrew, we can then begin to make an assessment for how the two players compare. Of course, the other conditions still apply: quality of team, type of ballpark, defensive contribution, and so on.


Let’s look at a particular extreme case and see how it works out. In 1924, Rogers Hornsby won the batting title with a .424 average – the highest total in the modern era. In 1968, Carl Yastrzemski won the batting title with a .301 average – the lowest average to win a batting title ever. Who’s better? If your answer is Hornsby, you’re right, but it’s not as simple as all that. Hornsby was not .123 better in the same way that Albert Pujols, who hit .368 in 2003 would be .123 better than a player that hit .245 in the same year. Both numbers, .424 and .301, have a context.


The truth is, Hornsby’s 1924 batting average was 50% better than the National League average (.283), while Yaz’s .301 was 31% better than the American League average in 1968 (.230). Using a direct comparison approach, Hornsby’s .424 is 41% better than .301, but by putting the numbers in context, we end up with a 19% difference. So if we could place each player in that other league in the other era and the percentages remained the same, we would expect Hornsby to hit .345 in 1968 and Yaz to hit .371 in 1924. That makes a difference. To put the differences between the eras into perspective, the lowest team batting average in the 1968 AL was .214 (Yankees) compared to 1924’s NL low of .256 (Boston Braves). On the high side, the New York Giants hit .300 as a team in 1924, while the A’s topped the AL in 1968 with a .240 mark. The high in 1968 is still .016 lower than the low of 1924.


An old-timer would look at this and say the solution is simple: players were better in 1924. That’s just not true, but that’s a subject for another long research project.


Back to the comparison. 19% is still a big gap, which forces us to conclude that Hornsby was better in 1924 than Yaz was in 1968, and that’s a fair conclusion. But consider this, we just compared the highest batting title average to the lowest, what about another example? Here are four more modern batting title winners, with their averages, their league averages, their percentage improvements, and their expected 1924 average:


Pete Rose, NL 1968, .335 AVG (.243 league AVG), 38% better - would have hit: .391
George Brett, AL 1980, .390 AVG (.269 league AVG), 45% better - would have hit: .410
Tony Gwynn, NL 1994, .394* AVG (.267 league AVG), 48% better – would have hit: .419
Albert Pujols, NL 2003, .359 AVG (.262 league AVG), 37% better – would have hit: .388
* strike year


For the record, I chose those years at random. It is possible that another batting title winner in another year was more that 50% better than his league’s average. Anyway, the point is, every stat has a context, and there is a way we can find that context and put it to use. Obviously, we can’t really determine how two players compare based on one statistic, so the process would have to be run on several levels to determine which player was actually better. Then, to make a truly accurate conclusion, you’d need to account for a player’s defensive contribution (both the position they played and whether they played it well), the ballpark they played in, and potentially a time-line adjustment (because I believe that the overall quality of play has improved over time, making it more difficult to dominate today the way players in the past, especially before WWII, but again, that’s for another time).


Pitching stats create another problem, most specifically, the way pitchers are used has continually changed, from the first pitch in history to the last pitch of the 2003 World Series, and it is likely to keep doing so. We’ve gone from an era when pitchers went on two days rest, and completed almost every game - win or lose - to a time when pitchers have four days of rest and rarely complete games. In this case more so than in the case of fielding or hitting statistics, the raw numbers tell us a whole lot, if we use the right ones, in the right ways. However, the eras of the game, ballparks, and team defense all come into play as well. The league context method takes care of many of these problems though.


As a side on pitchers and the way they’re used, I do not believe that the pitchers that threw more in the past are by that fact alone, better than the pitchers of today. In a three-way comparison of Walter Johnson, Sandy Koufax, and Roger Clemens, we find extreme differences in starts per season and innings pitched, which produces variances in total wins and losses, walks, strikeouts, hits allowed, total earned runs, complete games and shutouts. However, the stats based on average (winning percentage, strikeout to walk ratio, WHIP, and ERA) still give us a good starting point to compare pitchers, but always within the context of the league. I’ll do one short comparison: 1968 Bob Gibson vs. 1995 Greg Maddux.


Gibson had a mind blowing 1.12 ERA in 1968, but Maddux’s 1.56 ERA in 1994 was even better. Gibson’s ERA was 2.66 times better than the league ERA (2.98). Maddux’s ERA was 2.71 times better than the league (4.22). If we let them switch, Gibson would have a 1.59 ERA in 1994, while Maddux in 1968 would be at 1.10. In the end we’re only talking about approximately 2.5 hundredths of a run, which is very close – much closer than the initial comparison of 1.12 vs. 1.56 indicates. You might be one to notice that I used Maddux’s 1994 numbers, which were shortened by the strike. But that’s not a problem for Greg and his dominance of the mid 90’s. He was 2.56 times better than the league in 1995 (1.63 vs. 4.18), which would give him a 1.16 ERA in 1968


Finally, you should know that the philosophical concepts in this article come from Bill James. The words are mine, the particular comparisons are mine, but this line of thinking belongs to him. For similar types of study, I highly recommend his New Historical Baseball Abstract


In the future, I hope to do other longer posts on the problems of defensive stats, the overall quality of play in today’s game vs. the past, and the best ways to use the raw stats, which will include the reasons why OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage) is a good measuring stick, but not a great one.

Posted by at 07:48 PM | Comments (8)

January 22, 2004

Sophie

Sophie goes for a snack


Sophie's made it through eight months now. When she was caught in this picture, it was as though she said, "Have you been hiding this from me all this time?"

Posted by at 12:32 PM | Comments (4)

January 16, 2004

A Letterman Top Ten

Top Ten Things I'd Like to Get Off My Chest Now That I'm in the Baseball Hall of Fame
As presented by Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley


10. Once after I hit a grand slam and I kissed the umpire on the mouth. (Molitor)
9. In case there's any confusion, when I die, please don't freeze me. (Eckersley)
8. On July 17, 1984, I told the manager I pulled a hamstring and I went to see Ghostbusters. (Molitor)
7. Thank God I was never a Devil Ray. (Eckersley)
6. I joined a gym so I can continue to shower with men. (Molitor)
5. Forget all that stuff I said during contract negotiations - I was seriously, seriously overpaid. (Eckersley)
4. I traded my 1993 World Series ring for two front-row tickets to a Jethro Tull concert. (Molitor)
3. Once a guy made a joke about the mustache, so I beat him to death with a fungo bat. (Eckersley)
2. During difficult times in my life, I rebroadcast or retransmitted games without the express written consent of Major League Baseball. (Molitor)
1. Earlier today, I married Britney Spears. (Both)

Posted by at 06:50 PM | Comments (0)

January 15, 2004

Lingerie Bowl

In case you missed it, Dodge was going to be the primary sponser for the Lingerie Bowl. During half time of the Super Bowl, they were going to have models playing football in their underwear, and you could watch it on pay-per-view. Under preasure from the feminist crowd, Dodge backed out, and the Lingerie Bowl seemed as though it would go too. But I learned today from Jim Rome that the Lingerie Bowl is back. Here's part of Rome's take:


Partypoker.com is in as the new sponsor. Perfect. Seriously, when you think about it, who else was going to step up other than an online gambling site? Now you can hit all the degenerate activities at once - the Internet, porn and gambling. If there was some way for beer to pour out of the TV, then it would be the perfect event. You knew someone was going to step up and make sure that this thing went off.


In case you aren't familiar with Rome, he can be a bit sarcastic. Just to head-off any misinterpretations, Rome was very sarcastic about this. The idea of beer pouring right out of the TV made me laugh out loud.

Posted by at 06:50 PM | Comments (2)

January 14, 2004

Here's a Thought

If I had a nickel for every dollar I've ever spent, I would still have 5%.

Posted by at 07:32 PM | Comments (4)

You've Survived One Full Year of Odd Thoughts

January 15th makes a year for this blog.


A Few Highlights:
In January of '03 I confessed that after years of beer snobbery, I'd given in and became a Bud Light guy, and on January 23rd I mocked Ivan Rodriguez for signing with the Marlins, I even called the Marlins non-contenders. In February, I stood up for carpet, and I spoke of the stinky freezer that came with our house, and Delta Fantasy Baseball was born. In March I declared Louisiana and Texas the culinary capital of North America, and I exposed the fraud of public cleanliness. In April, Robbie and I ate doggie snacks, and we were all thankful that we can find divers when we need them. Sophie joined us in May; she was baptized in June. July was filled with baseball talk, as was August. Sophie showed her Mariner Pride in this pic. Also in August, I moved to Chattablogs. In September I made several posts, though I Could Care Less, and Krista speculated that I was one of those "mean popular kids." The NSAblogs drama came in October. I really didn't do much in November and December.


Thanks for stopping by, Y'all come back now.

Posted by at 07:31 PM | Comments (2)

January 12, 2004

When should an athlete retire?

You've probably heard that Roger Clemens has unretired so that he can pitch for his hometown Astros. I had planned to post a farewell to him earlier this year; I even started writing it, bt for some reason I just felt like I was being premature by assuming he was really finished. Anyway, the purpose of this post is not to break the news, but rather an attempt to answer the question above.


I'm going to confine the discussion to the greats, since they are really the only ones who get to make this decision - most athletes are forced out. The way I see it, and athlete can end his career in three ways: he can go out on top, he can slowly fade away, or he can just fall apart and be a pathetic shell of what he was. So is retiring in one of these ways better than another? At this point I think it would be fair to say Roger Clemens, should he stay retired, went out on top. Obviously he wasn't as good as he was in 1986, or 1996 for that matter, but he was still among the best pitchers in the game. But is he harming himself by coming back?


I don't think so. There are three reasons that players walk away in their primes, or at least when they can still be quality players: Personal reasons (i.e. family, which is what Clemens claimed), loss of competitive edge (Michael Jordan in retirement #1 and 2), and a desire to preserve a legacy or reputation. The first two are legitimate reasons, and there's no real way to argue with them - if that's what a player wants or the way he feels, then he should retire. This does raise another question: what should they do if they change their minds about those feelings? That one's for another time.


The third reason, that of the legacy, is what I intend to debunk. We all remeber how pathetic Mark McGwire and Tony Gwynn were in their final years, but I don't think that tarnished their legacies. They're still first ballot Hall of Famers, just like Cal Ripken and Wade Boggs who were still servicable major leaguers in their final years.


It's very hard to go out on top. I looked at the last 12 years, or so, of writer inducted Hall of Famers (I excluded Ozzie Smith as his HOF ticket was based on defense, and Kirby Puckett as his career ended by a freak accident, I also included Pete Rose, as he would have been inducted with the group of players up for consideration). What I've found is that only 3 out of the 22 players considered could be thought of as having gone out on top: George Brett, Rod Carew, and Paul Molitor. Obviously, going out on top is loosly defined - I estimated it as being within 10% of their career averages - and these guys were. 5 of the 22 were still servicable players, that is, still regualr players that made contributions to there teams; these are theones that I consider "faded": Robin Yount, Reggie Jackson, Tom Seaver, Gaylord Perry, and Ferguson Jenkins. That leaves 14 guys, about 65%, who ended their careers poorly, the types you wish would have ended it a few years earlier: Dennis Eckersley, Eddie Murray, Gary Carter, Dave Winfield, Carlton Fisk, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Neikro, Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Rollie Fingers, Jim Palmer, Joe Morgn, Pete Rose. Now, this last list of guys could have retired, but it's hard to know when you're done. In 7 of the 14 cases, the players were still valuable in their second to last seasons: Murray, Sutton, Neikro, Fingers, Morgan, and Rose.


To take the argument a bit further, I randomly chose 20 all-time greats, and found about the same ratio: Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, and Sandy Koufax went out on top, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio, and Honus Wagner faded away, while George Sisler, Tris Speaker, Yogi Berra, Bob Gibson, Frank Robinson, Ernie Banks, Warren Spahn, Rogers Hornsby, Christy Matthewson, Cy Young, Mel Ott, and even absoulte legends like Walter Johnson, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth were just disasters. But that hasn't harmed the reputations of any of those guys. Hardley anybody even knows that Ruth finished his career by playing 40 lousy games with the Boston Braves: he had 6 homers and 12 RBIs in 72 at bats, while hitting .181.


Clearly continuation doesn't hurt a players legacy or repuation, so I say, keep going, fellas. Clemens, David Wells, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, and Jamie Moyer will all be 40+ for the 2004 season, some of them could fall apart, but 4 out of five of those guys (5 out of 6 when you consider Bonds is getting up there too) were still great players last year. The only thing regrettable about Clemens return, is the emotional ovation he received at the end of the World Series. It will be hard to capture that again. But I don't think he's making a mistake. I'm glad to see the greats that we have today keep on ticking.

Posted by at 08:53 PM | Comments (4)

Prepare for your mind to be blown

Christin has mentioned in the past that she has few posts in her archives that still get comments. In my case, I still get comments on my Harry Potter Speculation post from back whenever Phoenix came out. Anyway - this is the part where I'm going to blow your mind - back in June I posted "Google Yourself", and just the other day, another Aaron Booth found the post and left a comment. How did he find me? He was googling himself. It's pretty neet, but I'm worried that we'll both cease to exist if we ever make eye contact.

Posted by at 07:53 PM | Comments (0)

January 11, 2004

A new blog

Ladies and Gentlemen, please welcome Mike Aman's Huh?. Mike and I go way back in the Moscow days. We used to flip burgers together at Erics Cafe almost 9 years ago. He's been known to spend time with such nefarious characters as Deacon Blues and Matt Greydanus, so beware. Do check him out though, he's new around here, and does not yet know what a tough crowd you folks can be.

Posted by at 11:00 PM | Comments (1)

January 09, 2004

The BCS - Quit Complaining . . . Kind of

A little background: I am a Washington State fan, however, I like LSU and I was quite pleased with their victory over Oklahoma. I'm also a regular sports radio listener, and I'm tired of hearing how USC was robbed. I'm tired of hearing abou co-National Champions. Here's the bottom line, the problem is with the BCS. The NCAA has married itself to the BCS through 2006, with only minor adjustments afoot. I will not stand here and defend the BCS on bit, other than to say that it is the system that is in place. The BCS is how the college football national champion is crowned. Did it mess up? Yes. Is it a good system? No. Is it the standard by which a champion is crowned? Absolutely. Keep in mind the whole reason we have the BCS is because of the terrible job that the polsters have done in the past.


Now, that leaves another question: Is LSU, who is the national champion, the best team in NCAA football? I don't know. Furthermore, we won't ever know. Most members of the media feel that USC would defeat LSU on a nuetral field. That may be so, however, the very best team doesn't always win their championship in a lot of sports. Here are the champions in the four major sports over the last five years, along with the teams that were actually the best in the leagues that year:


MLB
1999 Champs: Yankees (98-64) - Best Team: Braves (103-59)
2000 Champs: Yankees (87-74) - Best Team: Giants (97-65)
2001 Champs: Diamondbacks (92-70) - Best Team: Mariners (116-46)
2002 Champs: Angels (99-63) - Best Team: Yankees (103-58)
2003 Champs: Marlins (91-71) - Best Teams: Braves, Yankees (101-61)


NBA
02-03 Champs: Spurs tied for best with Mavericks (60-22)
01-02 Champs: Lakers (58-24) - Best Team: Kings (61-21)
00-01 Champs: Lakers (56-26) - Best Team: Spurs (58-24)
99-00 Champs: Lakers (67-15) - They were the best
98-99 Champs: Spurs tied for best with Jazz (37-13)


NFL
2002 Champs: Buccaneers tied for best with Eagles and Packers (12-4)
2001 Champs: Patriots (11-5) - Best Team: Rams (14-2)
2000 Champs: Ravens (12-4) - Best Team: Titans (13-3)
1999 Champs: Rams (13-3) - Best Team: Jaguars (14-2)
1998 Champs: Broncos (14-2) - Best Team: Vikings (15-1)


NHL
02-03 Champs: Devils (46-20-10) - Best Team: Senators (52-21-8)
01-02 Champs: Red Wings (51-17-10) - They were the best
00-01 Champs: Avalanche (52-16-10) - They were the best
99-00 Champs: Devils (45-29-8) - Best Team: Blues (51-20-11)
98-99 Champs: Stars (51-19-12) - They were the best


In only four cases out of twenty has the best team in the league won their leagues championship (3 NHL, 1 NBA), and in three more cases a team tied for the best record won (2 NBA, 1 NFL). What does this prove? For one thing, it shows that 65% of the time, the team with the best record is not crowned champion - and these a leagues with playoff systems.


Let's look at the most extreme case: MLB 2001. The Mariners were undisputably the best team in baseball - 14 games better than the next closest team (Oakland), and a whopping 24 games better than the eventual champions (Arizona). However, and I'm a Mariner fan, the M's do have a claim on the World Series title for 2001. Not any claim whatsoever - they don't share the title, they don't get a quarter of the title, they don't get anything but the best regular season record and another chance next year. And the same is true for 17 of the best teams listed above.


Clearly most of the time a lesser team is crowned champion, and a playoff system, something that many NCAA football experts and fans advocate, does not assure the best team of a trophy at the end of the year. So, is LSU the national champion? It is beyond doubt. Are they the best team? We'll never know.

Posted by at 07:23 PM | Comments (5)

January 08, 2004

All Louisiana Team

Baseball Reference (Linked at the bottom) has a feature by which you can sort every major leaguer according to the state where they were born. Using that feature I've built the All Louisiana team.


DH Rusty Staub, New Orleans (1944), Career 1963-1985: Six All-Star appearances, 1,466 RBI (43rd), 2,716 hits (50th).
C Bill Dickey (HOF), Bastrop (1907), Career 1928-1946: Yankee catcher mentored Yogi Berra. 11 All-Star appearances, 5 top-10 MVP finishes. Would have several Gold Gloves had ther been such a thing.
1B Will Clark, New Orleans, (1964), Career 1986-2000: 6 All-Star appearances, 1 Gold Glove, career .303 average. Peak season 1989 with .333 average, 23 homers, 111 RBI while leading Giants to NL pennant.
2B Connie Ryan, New Orleans (1920), Career 1942-1954: Default selection, as the state is weak at this position (same thing for short stop and third base). Made one All-Star team in 1944 as a Boston Brave.
3B Odell Hale, Hosston (1908), Career 1931-1941: Career .289 hitter with two 100 RBI seasons for the Indians.
SS George Strickland, New Orleans (1926), Career 1950-1960: Must have been a good glove man because there are no offensive highlights in the stats.
LF Albert Belle, Shreveport (1966), Career 1989-2000: Degenerative hip problem ended a brilliant career for a dispicable guy. Did make 5 All-Star teams. It's hard to pick his best season; in 1995 he hit .317 with 50 home runs and 126 RBI, in 1996 he hit .311 with 48 and 148, and in 1998 he batted .328 with 49 and 152. He had more great season than just those too.
CF Reggie Smith, Shreveport (1945), Career 1966-1982: 7 All-Star selections, 1 Gold Glove. Career .287 hitter with 2,020 hits.
RF Mel Ott (HOF), Gretna (1909), Career 1926-1947: 12 All-Star teams. led NL in home runs 6 times totaling 511 for his career (18th). 1,860 RBI's is 10th on the all-time list. First ballot Hall of Famer was player/manager for the New York Giants during his last seven seasons.
SP1 Ted Lyons (HOF), Lake Charles (1900), Career 1923-1946: Only one All-Star appearance, but 21-year career resulted in 260 career wins, including three 20-win seasons for a White Sox team that never made the postseason while Lyons was there. Also managed team from 1947-1949.
SP2 Vida Blue, Mansfield (1949), Career 1969-1986: 6 All-Star appearances and 209 wins. Won Cy Young and MVP for A's in 1971 when he went 24 and 8, with 8 shutouts, 301 strikeouts in 312 innings, and a 1.82 ERA on a Championship team.
SP3 Ron Guidry, Lafayette (1950), Career 1975-1988: 4 All-Star teams, 5 Gold Gloves, and 6 Cy Young top-10's. Won Al Cy Young with Yankees in 1978 by going 25 and 3, with 9 shutouts, 248 K's, and a 1.74 ERA. Guidry went 3 and 1 with a 1.69 ERA in 4 World Series starts.
SP4 Andy Pettitte, Baton Rouge (1972), Career 1995-present: A little over half way through his career he's 149 and 78. Pettitte is known as a big-game pitcher for the Yankees. He's about four more good seasons away from being a sure-fire Hall of Famer.
SP5 Chuck Finley, Monroe (1962), Career 1982-2002: Always good but never great, Finley did not pitch in 2003, but don't rule out a return in 2004. At this point he's made 5 All-Star teams and won 200 games.
CL Lee Smith, Shreveport (1957), Career 1980-1997: 7 All-Star appearances, 3 Reliever of the Year awards, 4 Cy Young top-10's. Led his league in saves 4 times and ended his career with more saves than anybody else (478); should be a Hall of Famer someday.

Other Noteables
1B Joe Adcock, Coushatta (1927), Career 1950-1966: 1 All-star selection, 1,832 hits, 336 home runs.
CF Vernon Wells, Shreveport (1978 just like me), Career 1999 - present: Made first All-Star team in 2003. Good in 2002, absolutely fantastic in 2003 leading the AL in hits (215), doubles (49), and total bases (373).
SP J.R. Richard, Vienna (1950), Career 1971-1980: Strange career ended by a stroke in 1980, but for four years (1976-1979) he was arguably the best pitcher in the NL.


Less detailed state teams below

All Arkansas


DH Lloyd Moseby, Portland (1959), 1980-1991: 1-time All-Star
C Sherm Lollar, Durham (1924), 1946-1963: 7-time All-Star
1B Tommy McCraw, Malvern (1940), 1963-1975: 0-time All-Star
2B George Kell (HOF), Swifton (1922), 1943-1957: 10-time All-Star
3B Brooks Robinson (HOF), Little Rock (1937), 1955-1977: 15-time All-Star
SS Arky Vaughn (HOF), Clifty (1912), 1932-1948: 9-time All-Star
LF Lou Brock (HOF), El Dorado (1939), 1961-1979: 6-time All-Star
CF Willie Davis, Mineral Springs (1940), 1960-1979: 2-time All-Star
RF Rick Monday, Batesville (1945), 1966-1984: 2-time All-Star
SP1 Dizzy Dean (HOF), Lucas (1910), 1930-1947: 4-time All-Star
SP2 Johnny Sain, Havana (1917), 1942-1955: 3-time All-Star
SP3 Lon Warneke, Mt. Ida (1909), 1930-1945: 5-time All-Star
SP4 Preacher Roe, Ash Flat (1915), 1938-1954: 5-time All-Star
SP5 Hank Wyse, Lunsford (1918), 1942-1951: 1-time All-Star
CL Ellis Kinder, Atkins (1914), 1946-1957: 0-time All-Star
Also Noteable: SS Travis Jackson (HOF), Waldo (1903), 1922-1936: 1-time All-Star

All Texas


DH Don Baylor, Austin (1949), 1970-1988: 1-time All-Star
C Gus Mancuso, Galveston (1905), 1928-1945: 2-time All-Star
1B Cecil Cooper, Brenham (1949), 1971-1987: 5-time All-Star
2B tie Joe Morgan (HOF), Bonham (1943), 1963-1984: 10-time All-Star
2B tie Rogers Hornsby (HOF), Winters (1896), 1915-1937: 2 NL Triple Crowns
3B Eddie Matthews (HOF), Texarkana (1931), 1952-1968: 9-time All-Star
SS Ernie Banks (HOF), Dallas (1931), 1953-1971: 11-time All-Star
LF Frank Robinson (HOF), Beaumont (1935), 1956-1976: 12-time All-Star
CF Curt Flood, Houston (1938), 1956-1971: 3-time All-Star
RF Tris Speaker (HOF), Hubbard (1888), 1907-1928: 1 AL MVP, .345 career hitter
SP1 Greg Maddux, San Angelo (1966), 1986-present: 8-time All-Star
SP2 Nolan Ryan (HOF), Refugio (1947), 1966-1993: 8-time All-Star
SP3 Hippo Vaughn, Weatherford (1888), 1908-1921: Pitcher Triple Crown in 1918
SP4 Schoolboy Rowe, Waco (1910), 1933-1949: 3-time All-Star
SP5 Doug Drabek, Victoria (1962), 1986-1998: 1-time All-Star
CL Firpo Marberry, Streetman (1898), 1923-1936: 148 Wins, 101 Saves

All Pacific Northwest
*Only 23 MLB players from Idaho ever


DH Dave Kingman, Pendleton, OR (1948), 1971-1986: 3-time All-Star
C Sammy White, Wenatchee, WA (1928), 1951-1962: 1-time All-Star
1B John Olerud, Seattle, WA (1968), 1989-present: 2-time All-Star
Ryne Sandberg, Spokane, WA (1959), 1981-1997: 10-time All-Star
Ron Santo, Seattle, WA (1940), 1960-1974: 9-time All-Star
SS Vance Law, Boise, ID (1956), 1980-1991: 1-time All-Star
LF Harmon Killebrew (HOF), Payette, ID (1936), 1954-1975: 11-time All-Star
CF Dale Murphy, Portland, OR (1956), 1976-1993: 7-time All-Star
RF Earl Averill (HOF), Snohomish, WA (1902), 1929-1941: 6-time All-Star
SP1 Mickey Lolich, Portland, OR (1940), 1963-1979: 3-time All-Star
SP2 Larry Jackson, Nampa, ID (1931), 1955-1968: 4-time All-Star
SP3 Vern Law, Meridian, ID (1930), 1950-1967: 1-time All-Star
SP4 Todd Stottlemeyer, Sunnyside, WA (1965), 1988-present: 138 wins
Gerry Staley, Brush Prairie, WA (1920), 1947-1961: 3-time All-Star
CL Randy Myers, Vancouver, WA (1962), 1985-1998: 4-time All-Star

Posted by at 07:14 PM | Comments (0)

January 07, 2004

Mariner Update

The Mariners have certainly been active this winter, for better or for worse. I find that I'm generally excited when I first hear about BM Bill Bavasi's latest move, but when I really think about it, his moves kind of stink.

Here's my attempt to look at where we really are. We've essentially lost five players and gained five players. On the bench, we've lost John Mabry and Greg Colbrunn and added Quinton McCracken and Dave Hansen. Here's a breakdown of of what they've done the past four years:

Mabry: age 33, bats left, AVG: .239, OPS: .741
Hansen: age 35, bats left, AVG: .256, OPS: .725


Colbrunn: age 34, bats right, AVG: .310, OPS: .929
McCracken: age 34, bats both, AVG: .273, OPS: .713

For you Delta Fantasy Baseball types out there, their points over the last three years were:


Mabry - points: 291, PPG: 1.12
Hansen - points: 236, PPG: 0.79


Colbrunn - points: 227, PPG 1.48
McCracken - points: 333, PPG:1.27

We lose a bit on offense with Hansen vs. Mabry however, Mabry played only first base, while Hansen plays first, third (primarily), and outfield. I call the move even.


It appears that we lose offensively on McCracken vs. Colbrunn, but those numbers don't tell the whole story. Colbrunn was a stud bench player in Arizona, but was mostly hurt in Seattle. McCracken's PPG suffers because he was occassionally used as a pinch runner. Like the last case, we gain defensively as Colbrunn was another first base only type, while McCracken is above average in all three outfield spots. I feel that we gain in this case.

In the bullpen, we lost Arther Rhodes and added Eddie Guardado, both lefties. Because the two filled different roles the past few years, it difficult to compare their numbers, but I'll do my best. Again, these numbers are for the last three years.


Rhodes, age 34, IP:191.2, K: 212, ERA: 2.64, WHIP: 0.98
Guardado, age 33, IP:199.2, K: 207, ERA: 3.11, WHIP: 1.03


When you consider Gaurdado had to deal with the Homer (Metro) Dome, while Rhodes was in the comforst of Saefco, the scale tips toward Guardado. The difference in their WHIPs is tiny already, and the difference in ERAs is almost certainly park related. Plus, Rhodes almost certainly had fewer inherited runners, as the M's starting pitching was much better than the Twins. Finally, while Rhodes seemed to lose a bit in 2003, Guardado was better in '03, albeit slightly, than he was in '02. This is a definite upgrade.


At third base we've finally dumped Jeff Cirillo and replaced him with Scott Spiezio. I really don't think there much to argue here. Cirillo, at least as a Mariner, was a total bust. He was good with the glove, and I wish him the best, but he really stunk it up. Meanwhile, Spiezio has been a solid hitter for the Angels, though he unspectacular in the field. Still, the offense he provides is worth far more. Another definite upgrade.


At the present, there is only one other change. That is, out with Mike Cameron and in with Raul Ibanez. It's tough to compare these two since Cameron's primary value was in the field. He's regarded by most baseball people as the best defensive centerfielder in the game, but as a Mariner fan, the strike outs were just too much to bear. Ibanez brings a lot more offense, though he's no superstar. He's not even in the same category as Cameron on defense, which will put Randy Winn in center while Ibanez plays left. In my mind, I still can't decide how I feel about this series of moves. Ibanez seems like a good guy, but I'm afraid Cameron (who was also quite a guy himself) and his defensive wizardry will be missed. We have not spent any part of any season in Saefco without him, so we'll have to wait and see, and at this time I'll call it a draw.


We're rumored to be signing short stop Rich Aurilia and then sending Carlos Guillen to the Rockies for prospects. At this time, that seems like a good deal.


Finally, on the Cirillo trade, I read this quote at Mariner Musings:


I could understand looking to shed Cirillo's contract, but they didn't even manage to do that. And for whatever else anyone may think of Cirillo, at least the guy used to be good. Kevin Jarvis and Wiki Gonzalez used to be, um, Padres...

Posted by at 08:24 PM | Comments (3)

January 05, 2004

Mandatory Pete Rose Post

For the last few years, I've been of the opinion that Rose deserved enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, regardless of his past, but that he should not be eligible for employment in baseball. Maybe I still feel that way. His numbers are certainly indisputable: .303 batting average, 4,256 hits (#1 all-time), #1 all-time in games and at-bats, 5,752 total bases (#6 all-time), 2,165 runs (#5 all-time), 746 doubles (#2 all-time), 5,929 times on base (#1 all-time), 3 batting titles, 1 MVP and 10 top ten MVP finishes, a World Series MVP, 2 Gold Gloves, and 17 All-Star appearances. Definitely worthy of the Hall. And, as Deacon Blues argued, "It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Moral Uprightness." The latest news, however, is just unacceptable.


It's one thing to commit a crime, cheat, or otherwise break the rules. But to lie about it for almost 15 years is quite another. And it's not as though he avoided the issue for that time - in interview after interview Pete emphatically denied betting on baseball in any way. That record seems far worse than any betting of any kind he might have done.


Now Rose has a book coming out that includes his confession. As a reult of the book and the confession, he's been even more visible in the press of late. I've heard several sound bites in which he argues that he "made a mistake", he "wishes the whole thing never happened", and "don't people deserve second chances?" The answer to the last question is yes. Many times people do deserve second chances. But is this one of them? At this time, I don't think so.


Had the matter remained a mystery, that is, Pete keeps denying it despite strong evidence, with no further investigation, then give him the Hall and call it a day. Had the event really ended in 1989, this might be a different matter. But in truth, the issue that began in 1988, has just now ended in 2004. I could possibly be pursuaded by the Hall of Moral Uprightness argument, afterall there are plenty of scoundrels already in, but if I had a vote, I could not at this time vote for Rose.

Posted by at 08:59 PM | Comments (2)

Tug McGraw, 1944 - 2004

Tug McGraw died today. He was the son of Hall of Famer John McGraw and the father of country music legend Tim McGraw. Tug's baseball career was long (19 years), but largely unrecognized. He spent his first nine years playing for the Mets, and his last ten with the Phillies. In 1972 and 1973, he finished second in the National League in saves with 27 and 25 respectively. He made his first of two All-Star teams in '72 (the other in 1975), and in '73 his performance helped the Mets to a National League championship and an eventual World Series loss to Oakland. Between the 1973 and 1974 seasons, he was traded along with two guys you never heard of to the Phillies for three guys you never heard of. His finest season came in 1980, a year he helped give the Phillies their only World Series title. In that 1980 season he saved 20 games and had a staggering 1.46 ERA in 92.3 innings - a performance that was good enough to earn him 5th in the Cy Young voting. He retired after the 1984 season with a career record of 96 and 92, 180 saves, 1,109 strikeouts in 1,515 innings, and a 3.14 ERA.

Posted by at 08:39 PM | Comments (4)