Mariner of the Week: This week’s MOW was another tough decision, but I choose Alvin Davis and Jay Buhner over Mark Langston and Ken Griffey Jr. None of these players committed any errors in the Mariners’ recent slide, nor did any of them fail to produce in clutch situations. As good as Langston and Griffey were, I chose Davis and Buhner because they ended their careers as Mariners. Honorable mention: Harold ReynoldsFor all of you non-baseball types, there's a really cute picture of Sophie
toward the bottom of the MLB Report.
Mariner of the Week: This is Ichiro’s millionth MOW of the year, and like the others, it is well deserved. Ichiro went 11 for 27 (.407), with a grand slam, 8 RBI’s, 3 stolen bases and 7 runs scored. I can’t ignore Freddy Garcia though. Two weeks ago he was in the doghouse, but now he seems to be back. He’s been awfully streaky this year and we can ill afford another slump. If, however, Garcia continues as he has this week, we’ll be tough to beat. Garcia went 2 and 0, allowing only two runs in 14 innings (1.29 ERA), striking out 12. He did this against the two best hitting teams in the American League.
That leaves three spots to be taken by three of four teams: New York, Boston, Seattle, and Oakland. Really and truly, those should be the four teams in the AL playoffs. Unfortunately, one of them will have to stay home and it’s really hard at this point to say which one it will be. I believe the Yankees and Mariners will stay on top in their divisions. That leaves a battle between the A’s and Red Sox for the wildcard spot. If I were forced to place a bet, I’d go with the A’s. The A’s have a much easier schedule than the Red Sox for the rest of the year, and a much better pitching staff. Provided my predictions hold, the schedule would look like this: Chicago at Seattle and Oakland at New York (this would a be a 2000 AL playoffs rematch). If the Red Sox win the wild card, then Boston would start out at Seattle and the Central division winner would be in New York. Despite what others say and what the won/lost records indicate, I believe that the Yankees, Mariners, and A’s are all capable of beating the Braves and Giants. That is, the World Series will be won by the American League.Did you know that there are social groups of various sizes, all over the
country, that have occasional parties? You know what else? Sometimes they throw
these parties and the various hosts actually do all the work for the party. They
don't require others to pitch in, bring things, or clean up when it's done. When
you ask them if you can help, they say, "No," or "I've got it under control."
What a concept. Imagine going to a party where the only thing you have to do is
attend.
Mariner of the Week: This week Gil Meche earns his second career MOW. Last time he earned it by pitching a brilliant game against the Yankees. The time he gets the honor for the same reason, and this time he was even better. He got the win from 8 innings, allowing only 1 run on 2 hits with 7 strikeouts. Honorable mention: Randy Winn.MLB Report
We’re almost the three-quarter point of the season. Most teams have 45-47 games
left, so this will be the first of a two-part update for this point of the
season. This week I’ll look at statistical possibilities and save the playoff
picture for next week.
The Detroit Tigers are shooting for a not so glorious record. They are well on
their way to becoming the worst team of all time. As it stands, The 1962 New
York Mets hold that distinction; they went 40-122 in their second year of
existence. The Tigers are currently 30-85. They are 18.5 games behind the
Cleveland Indians for fourth place in their own division. They are 15.5 games
worse than the second worst team in the game this year, Tampa Bay. Detroit’s
winning percentage (.261) projects out to 42-120 over the course of the season,
which would make them a game better than the ’62 Mets, but that’s just two games
and the Tigers are bad enough to drop two or three more to set the record. My
Prediction: The Tigers will be the worst team in a long time, but not the worst
team of all time.
Last year, Jose Hernandez, then of the Milwaukee Brewers, made a run at Bobby
Bonds’ 1970 record of 189 strikeouts in a season. Has manager at the time, Davey
Lopes, benched Hernandez with two weeks left to keep him from passing the mark.
Now Hernandez is with the Pirates and is well on his way to setting a new
standard. If he plays every game the rest of the year, I project he’ll end with
204 strikeouts, which would obviously shatter the mark. The only question is,
will Lloyd McClendon keep him in the line up or bench him as Lopes did last
year? A MLB manager, regardless of his place in the standings, must go out and
field his best line up every night, and in this case, Jose Hernandez is part of
that group. Most people seemed to view Lopes’ actions of last year to be
cowardly. My Prediction: McClendon will keep Hernandez in the games, and
Hernandez will set a new record.
Dodger’s closer Eric Gagne recently set the record for most consecutive saves to
start a season – 39. Only Tom Gordon, who saved 54 in 1998/99 for the Red Sox
has a longer streak. My Prediction: He’ll set a new record, but it might not
happen this year. . . In a related chase, Atlanta closer John Smoltz is still on
pace to pass the single season saves mark of 57, set by the White Sox’s Bobby
Thigpen in 1990. Smoltz has 42 saves, and I think he’ll have 43 by the end of
the night. That would leave him 14 away, with 45 games left. My Prediction:
He’ll do it.
Barry Bonds currently has 648 career home runs. He needs 13 more to pass Willie
Mays for third on the all time list. My Prediction: He’ll do it in about three
weeks. On a broader note, will Bonds pass Hank Aaron’s 755? Let’s conservatively
assume he finishes 2003 with at 665 career – 90 short of Aaron. That would leave
three home run milestones in his path: #700, #714 (passes Babe Ruth), and #756.
Bonds has three years left on his contract after this year, and I believe he
intends to play all three. That means he only needs to average 30 homers a year
to set the mark. It seems quite likely that he’ll retire as the home run king.
Finally, will Albert Pujols win the Triple Crown? I would love for him to do it,
but My Prediction is that he will win the batting title and lead the league in
RBI’s, but he’ll fall short in home runs. He’s currently 5 behind Bonds and I
just don’t think he can catch up. But don’t feel bad Cardinal fans, that MVP
trophy will sure look nice.
Game of the Week: Anything involving the Boston Red Sox. They play 4 against the
A’s, a team that is currently one game behind them for the wildcard spot. Then
the Red Sox play three against the Mariners over the weekend. Unfortunately for
Boston they have to do the same thing over again the next week. After two weeks
like that, the Yankees will have to send thank you notes to Seattle and Oakland
for putting the Red Sox out of the picture.
I normally don't post the results from these quizzes if I don't like them, but
in this case, I was too proud of the result to resist.
You're Ireland!
Mystical and rain-soaked, you remain mysterious to many people, and this makes
you intriguing. You also like a good night at the pub, though many are just as
worried that you will blow up the pub as drink your beverage of choice. You're
good with words, remarkably lucky, and know and enjoy at least fifteen ways of
eating a potato. You really don't like snakes.
Take the Country Quiz at the Blue Pyramid
Front Row. By Myself.
My lovely and talented sister-in-law, Shannon, wrote a post that reminded me of
the petty things my sisters and I used to fight about as kids. Shannon mentioned
the end piece of the loaf of bread as a great object of desire in her house. In
our house though, we ignored the bread, but vehicular seating location . . .
that was worth fighting over. Obviously the front seat was most desirable. I
remember we'd take occasional trips to Shreveport, which was a 90-minute trip.
Mom would actually stop the car an hour into the drive to let us change seats.
That way each child had an hour in the front seat for the total three-hour round
trip. Problem solved, right? Wrong. Once this arrangement was made we then
fought over who would get the middle hour of the rotation, because that way
you'd get to be in the front for some of the ride to Shreveport and some of the
ride back. The seating problems were magnified even more when my parents got an
Astro van. The front seat was still prime, but what about those times when Mom
and Dad were both in the car? The van had two rows, a front row with two seats
and a back row with three. The ultimate desire was the front row, by yourself.
Christin was the master of "Front row. By myself." I think she coined the
phrase. I think she had the seat claimed for weeks in advance. I'm sure we
fought about other petty things, but this one has to be the most bitter and
longstanding of them all.
I Need to Know
I you have seen any TV in the last 5 years or so, you know that 1-800-CALL-ATT
and 1-800-COLLECT have spent a fortune advertising on every possible show with
annoying, washed up "personalities" trying to get you to place all your collect
calls with them, and "Save a buck or two." But, really, who's out there making
all these collect calls? I have received one and made one in whole life and both
where over 7 years ago. (I paid for the one I received, and let me tell you,
when they say save a buck or two, they mean your bill will be $18 instead of
$20.) Long distance calls cost less and less all the time, most people have a
calling card or could easily get one at the convenience store beside the pay
phone they're using, or just use a cell phone. Cell phones just aren't that hard
to find, and like long distance, more people have more minutes, including long
distance, for less money. Even Aaron Tripp has a cell phone! Anyway, what I want
to know is out of all the people who read this blog, how many of you have
actually made or received a collect call in the past five years?
Mariner Report
I'm very pleased we finally had a respectable week (5/2); a three game series
with the Tigers always helps. Up next we have three with Cleveland, and then
we'll have 9 straight series against the AL East, highlighted by this weekend's
set at Yankee Stadium. We have beaten the Yanks in the season series the last
few years, but we need to sweep them to do it again. I actually prefer that we
lose the season series since in years we've beaten them, we've later lost to
them in the ALCS. Maybe our luck will change if the Yanks win one from us this
weekend. I would hope to sweep Cleveland, but Freddy Garcia will face them, and
that's pretty much a sure loss. Speaking of which, are any other M's fans
aggravated by the fact that every other contender in the American League made a
significant acquisition at the trade deadline except us? Adding a bat would have
been nice, it seems it would have been nice to part with Garcia, but the real
kicker is that Aaron Boone would have fit in so nicely in our line up and on the
field. It's even worse that the Yankees got him. That's not New York's fault; we
just couldn't get the deal done. It will be worth it if the prospects Gillick
just couldn't part with win us the World Series in a few years, but it would be
even better to win it in 2003, and a guy like Aaron Boone sure would have given
us an extra push in that direction. We're still capable, and Rey Sanchez is a
quality player. Don't look for big numbers every day, but he's Luis Sojo/Jose
Vizcaino type that always seems to get the big hit.
Mariner of the Week: Gil Meche won 2 and had a 3.27 ERA, but the hands down MOW,
I am ecstatic to say, is John Olerud. Olerud came into the week with 4 homers on
the season, and ended the week with 8 (all hit in Seattle). John's numbers for
the week: 9 for 26 (.346) with 5 walks, 4 home runs, 15 RBI and a mammoth .885
slugging percentage. John doesn't have to hit 4 homers a week to be a force, but
two a week would be nice.
MLB Report
Is the All-Star break over? Seriously, if anyone out there actually reads this
every week and has been disappointed by not seeing it for the past two - sorry.
We've now entered the crunch time part of the season, and this year looks to be
shaping up for some exciting divisional races. Atlanta and San Francisco seem to
have their spots locked up, but that still leaves four divisions and two
wildcard spots to be had, and the biggest lead any team has for any of those six
spots is the four games the Mariners have on the A's in the AL West. I believe
that the current leaders in three of the four divisions will hang on to their
spots (Mariners, Yankees, and Astros). I still don't believe the Royals can hang
on. I think they've had a great year. I think they were smart to keep Carlos
Beltran even though they know he'll be gone next year. But I still believe the
Twins and White Sox are better. The AL Central is still just a consolation prize
though. I think everybody (except Courtney) will agree that the AL pennant
winner could easily be the Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, or A's, but it won't be
the team that comes out of the central. The Angels have gone 2 and 8 out of
their last 10. Allow me to declare them finished. The Angels will be splitting
their parting gifts with the Blue Jays. Thanks for playing, fellas. The Wild
card race is really between the Red Sox and A’s (The White Sox are third, but
not real contenders – they need to win their division to play in October, as do
the Twins). Of course, the Mariners or Yankees could be in the wildcard race, if
the fall out of first in their divisions. The wildcard race in the NL could be
very interesting, as only five teams in the whole league are really out of it.
The Phillies are leading it, but there are seven other teams within reach.
Personally, the Marlins, who are currently just 2 games behind the Phils,
interest me a great deal – just because of the underdog factor.
Statistical Analysis of the Texas Rangers
Before the season began, I made a two-fold claim to Matt Greydanus: 1) The AL
West is the best division in baseball, and 2) The Texas Rangers are the best
last place team in baseball. Last week I talked to Matt on the phone and he
challenged these statements. I decided to see who was right. I’ll handle the
matter of best divisions later and focus on the last-place discussion now.
First, however, I need to qualify the study. My conversation with Matt was
particularly focused on the Rangers during the A-Rod era (2001 to the present).
On the list below, I left off two teams that finished last one time during the
selected years: the 2001 Rockies and the 2001 Expos. The Rockies finished below
.500 in 2002 and are currently .500 in 2003. The Expos were over .500 in 2002
and are currently over .500 in 2003. I also made some exceptions with the Mets
and the Reds, both of which have two bad years and one good year out of the
three considered. In fact the Reds did not even finish in last place once. So
here’s the list. The number in parentheses is the number of last-place finishes
each team has had in the three years considered. The number on the left of the
slash is wins and the number on the right is total games played through 8/3/03.
2001-2003
TEX (3) 193/435 = .444
SDP (2) 189/437 = .433
KCR (1) 186/432 = .431
CIN (0) 195/435 = .448 (.429 minus 3rd finish in 2002)
PIT (1) 185/432 = .428
BAL (0) 182/431 = .422
MIL (2) 168/435 = .386
DET (2) 150/432 = .347
TBD (3) 148/432 = .343
NYM (2) 202/434 = .465 (.339 minus 3rd finish in 2001)
The Padres have been the other “good” last place team. The figure on the Royals
includes their record from this year. As of right now, the Rangers are the best
last place team for 2003, ahead of all five other last place teams, plus the
Cleveland Indians. In 2002, the were the 2nd best (3.5 games behind the Mets,
but better than three non-last place teams), In 2001, they tied with the Padres
for best last place honors and were better than four non-last place teams. The
Next list goes back one more year. The Rangers did not have A-Rod, but still
finished in last place. In 2000, they were 2nd amongst last place teams, 5 games
behind the Padres, and better than one non-last place team. The next list has
totals from 2000 to the present. Three teams finished last in 2000 (Phillies,
Cubs, and Twins) but have had success since, and therefore have been left off
this list.
2000-2003
KCR (1) 263/594 = .4427
SDP (3) 265/599 = .4424
TEX (4) 264/597 = .4422
BAL (0) 256/593 = .432
PIT (1) 254/594 = .428
MIL (2) 241/597 = .404
DET (2) 229/594 = .386
TBD (4) 217/593 = .366
Texas is 3rd on this list, but the margin of difference is in the
ten-thousandths column, and The Padres finished last three times (compared to
four by Texas), and the Royals numbers are significantly aided by the fact that
they are currently in 1st place in their division. Now, the final list is really
the tell-all, case-closed argument. It is a list of the winning percentages of
the last place teams in each division, regardless of franchise. The AL West and
East are the only ones that have the same team in last place for the period
considered (Rangers and Devil Rays). The number of different teams in last place
in the other divisions is in parentheses.
2000-2003
ALW 264/597 = .442
NLW (2) 259/599 = .432
NLE (3) 253/596 = .425
NLC (3) 227/597 = .380
ALC (3) 218/594 = .367
ALE 217/593 = .366
I Think the answer is clear: The Texas Rangers are the best last place team of
the 21st century.
Union National, Union National . . .
I am ecstatic to announce that I am done with Union National. I'm through with
all of it. Yesterday was my last day in the field; I shook the dust from my
shoes when I walked in the door. In other news, I am now employed with National
Write Your Congressman. I don't actually start for two more weeks, but I am
gainfully employed. I would tell you all about it, but you can see for yourself
by following the link given above.
No Slums Behind Them Pearly Gates
My good friend Roger Carter forwarded this article to me. This is an actual
article from Monroe Louisiana's own daily paper, The News Star:
SHREVEPORT - Greenwood Acres Full Gospel Baptist Church will pay white people to
attend services during August to increase the diversity of its congregation.
Bishop Fred Caldwell said he will pay $5 per hour for Sunday services and $10 an
hour for the Thursday service at the church. The idea came to him during his
sermon Sunday. "Our churches are too segregated and the Lord never intended for
that to happen. It's time for something radical," he said.
Caldwell is basing the initiative on a parable from Matthew 20:1-16, the story
of the workers in the vineyard. A landowner hired men to work in his fields for
the day and throughout the day kept seeking more workers. No matter what time
they came to work, the workers were all paid the same. Caldwell said he has had
several positive responses from the white community so far and expects to put
out extra chairs Sunday. One man who called didn't want the money; he just
appreciated the invitation.
Church member Criss Williams admits it is a bold step but doesn't have a problem
with it. "I don't see it as any different social functions to attract visitors,"
she said. "Bishop just kind of cut to the chase and went to the money."
To get their money, white visitors will have to register when they attend.
Caldwell will pay them from his pocket and enlist the help of the congregation
if needed. "I just want the kingdom of God to look like it's supposed to," he
said. "There ain't going to be ghettos in heaven."
I wanted to verify this so I did a search through google and found that both CNN
and ABC have reported this story too.