Odd Thoughts

A Few Thoughts on MLB's Hot Stove

The trade of catcher Paul Lo Duca to the Mets has really changed the face of the current market behind the plate. Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez are still the premier free agent catchers, but the two teams that appeared willing to spend money on catchers have addressed their needs with the Mariners going the route of the import in Kenji Johjima and the Mets trading for Lo Duca, it appears that Molina and Hernandez have been hung out to dry. Maybe now Brad Ausmus will get his wish and go to his hometown San Diego, Hernandez signs with the Astros, and Molina just gets stuck – maybe Toronto?

Meanwhile, the relief pitching market is out of control. After one year as an above average closer, B.J. Ryan signed the five-year deal with the Blue Jays. Deacon made the interesting point that this is the first 5+ year deal for any pitcher since the Rangers signed Chan Ho Park – not a good omen. The odd thing about it is, the Ryan deal is probably not the worst relief signing we’ve seen this off-season. That honor goes to the Phillies’ signing of Tom Gordon. Not only have they signed a 38-year-old to a 3-year deal, they’ve signed a fly-ball pitcher to close in a hitter friendly park. Prediction? Gordon will save 35 games or so, but it will be far from pretty. But all things considered, if I were a member of the Trevor Hoffman family, I’d be shopping for a new car.

Going back to Lo Duca, the Marlins “market correction” has been a lot of fun for the hot stove league. It’s been so fun I think Bud Selig should require it. Every year, one of the top 16 teams, less the playoff teams, that is, the 8 best non-playoff teams should be required to have a fire sale. It would just keep it interesting.

Did Rafael Furcal make a mistake? Maybe. He probably made a mistake signing with the Dodgers at all, but did he make a mistake by taking a more lucrative 3-year deal over a 5-year deal? It is definitely a gamble, but consider that when he’s done with the Dodgers he’ll be only 31, which according to Scott Boras, is still a perfectly reasonable age for a player to land a 7-year deal. More on Boras in a minute. The bottom line on Furcal is, he will still be extremely marketable and likely to land another high-dollar, multi-year contract even when his days in LA are over.

Now back to Boras. The wonder-agent, Scott Boras, has suggested that Johnny Damon deserves a 7-year pact. Now, you might think that guaranteeing 7 years to a 32-year-old (meaning he’ll be 39 at the end of the deal) would be ridiculous, but you would be wrong. You’re obviously thinking of age chronologically. Silly you. Anyway, I have not had the opportunity to do a thorough historical search on players like Damon, but recent history does provide at least one good example of why signing a player of Damon’s type to such a long contract would be a bad idea. Damon had a pretty good season in 2005, at the age of 31, but consider Craig Biggio at the same age. I would argue that Biggio was actually better. Here is a comparison of their seasons at the age of 31:

Career Totals Through 2005
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
Johnny Damon	624	117	197	10	75	18	53	.316	.805
Craig Biggio	619	146	191	22	81	47	84	.309	.916

 

Not convinced the Biggio was a better player? Check out Biggio in his next year, at age 32:

Career Totals Through 2005
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
Craig Biggio	646	123	210	20	88	50	64	.325	.906

 

Now, here’s the point: Biggio, while still a valuable player his been in significant decline ever since he was 32-years old. You could counter by saying that Bonds and Sheffield and other have had tremendous success after the age of 35, but none of those guys are the same type of player as Damon, and those guys are abnormal even for their own player-type. Now, what happened to Biggio? Nothing really – he just got older, and experienced the things that go with it, most particularly, he lost his speed. The lost speed hasn’t just effected his stolen base total either. It reduces his number of hits because he used to get some bunt hits and hustle-singles, and it’s hurt his bat speed too. So when you take the speed away, what’s left? Here’s Biggio at ages 36-39:

Career Totals Through 2005
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
Craig Biggio, 36	577	96	146	15	58	16	50	..253	.734
Craig Biggio, 37	628	102	266	15	62	8	57	.264	.762
Craig Biggio, 38	633	100	278	24	63	7	40	.281	.806
Craig Biggio, 39	590	94	156	26	69	11	37	.264	.793

 

Those numbers are still valuable in the right context, but they’re a far cry to the kind of numbers he used to produce. If you are a Red Sox fan, doe you want your team on the hook for 10+ million per season for those for years? I don’t think so. Boras argues that Damon was a key reason the Red Sox won in 2004 and that he can be a key part of further success in Boston. Those things are true. Certainly if the Sox want to have their best chance to contend in 2006 or 2007, having Johnny Damon would be a big step in the right direction, but the Red Sox want to contend in 2010 and beyond, and paying superstar money for role player numbers is probably not the best way to make sure that happens.

Posted by chefchuddy at December 4, 2005 11:33 PM | TrackBack