Odd Thoughts

Ichiro, Rivera, St. Louis

Ichiro in Context

With a week left, Ichiro will almost certainly pass the all-time hit mark of 257 set by George Sisler of the St. Louis Browns in 1920. Obviously, people will, and in fact already have, made the typical 154-game vs. 162-game schedule argument in favor of Sisler. In addition, Sisler hit .407 that year, compared to Ichiro’s current mark of .373. But is that it? Is it cut and dry that Sisler’s 1920 was a better season than Ichiro is having? What about the context of the league?

In 1920, George Sisler’s batting average was 47% better than the league, .407 to .277. Ichiro is 40% better than the league at .373 vs. .267. Sisler was 4.9 % better in average than the next highest hitter in the league (Tris Speaker, .388); Sisler was 13% better than the remainder of the top 10 hitters in the league. Ichiro is 8.7 % better than the next hitter (Todd Helton .343. Bonds is hitting .372, but I don’t believe Bonds should count as “normal league context” any more, I’ll do an essay on this later). Ichiro is 9.7% better than the rest of the top 10. One thing these numbers do tell us, is that it is much harder today to be the most dominant player, that is, the league as a whole is catching up. The gap between the best and worst players is shrinking.

As far as hits go, Sisler was 14.7 % better than #2 (Eddie Collins 224) and 13 % better than the average number of hits by the remainder of the top 10. In the same categories, Ichiro is 21% better than #2 (Michael Young, 208) and 27% better than the pack.

Within the context of the leagues in which Sisler and Ichiro played, the disparity seems to be far less than a comparison of a .407 average and a .373 avergae would indicate. By the way, the numbers used in this analysis are after game # 154 for Ichiro. Sisler played all 154 in 1920.

Mariano Rivera and the Saves Record

I knew he wouldn’t do it.

Inside the New Big Red Machine

I’m not talking about the Reds; I’m talking about the Cardinals. The Cards are 6.5 games better than the Yankees, and 10.5 better than the closest NL team (Atlanta). They’re 103-52 with 7 games left to play. One reason for their dominance is that they’re the best hitting team in baseball.

The team is hitting .278, which is .03 better than the Rockies and Padres, and better than 11 of the 14 AL teams, whose respective batting averages benefit from the DH. They’ve scored the most runs of any team, and hit the most home runs. Their slugging percentage is .04 better than the inflated number posted by the Rockies and a full .22 better than their nearest NL rival (Giants). In addition to that, they trail only the Brewers in total stolen bases, but they have a much better success rate.

As if that’s not enough, they’re pitching pretty well too. They have the best team ERA in baseball at 3.68. They have the fewest runs allowed, and an MLB best 1.24 team WHIP. Not only do they have the fewest walks, they also have the fewest intentional walks, which means they actually pitch to people. They keep the ball in the yard better than any other team - .08 better in ground out to pop out ratio. Only the Detroit Tigers (Ivan Rodriguez) have been more successful in throwing out would-be base stealers. Pudge has thrown out 58%, while Matheny/Molina have thrown out 54%. And even though they are second in that stat, steals have only been attempted against them 50 times, compared to 66 times against the Tigers. They have the lowest opponent batting average, the lowest opponent on base percentage, the most bullpen holds, and the fewest plate appearances allowed.

While their defense is good, they do rank only 11th (4th in the NL) in fielding percentage and total errors committed. This is strange considering they had 4 gold-glovers last year. Even with that one “weakness” they’ve been far and away the best team in baseball for almost the whole year – definitely since mid-June. This is not a prediction, but they have to be considered the team to beat in the post season.

Final Thoughts

I will try to do a few more posts as time allows, and with the end of the season just a week away, I’ll have a few more things to talk about.

Posted by chefchuddy at September 27, 2004 04:52 PM