Odd Thoughts

Various MLB Things, Including the Truth about the Wild Card

The Trading deadline came and went. Randy Johnson didn't go anywhere. I was happy with that since the tide finally turned on him. When he pulled the same stunt in Seattle in 1999, the M's just did what they were told. In fairness to the M's brass at the time, they did get some quality players in return. The D-backs expected nothing less, and when the Yankees had nothing to give, Arizona just told Randy he would have to tough it out. But there is something I don't understand. If you followed the story, you'll recall that at the beginning of July, Randy supposedly named a list of teams he'd be willing to go to. Then when the Angels tried to get him, he said no, even though the Angels were on the list. Then the Dodgers (who were not on the list) reportedly had a deal worked out and Randy vetoed it. But why? He says he lives in Phoenix with his family, and wants to keep them there, at the beginning of the year, he said he wanted to end his career there. Then he wants out to play for a winner. Look at the Dodgers, Randy! They're running away with the division, they play in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball, and with Randy Johnson on the team, they would have had the best pitching staff of the NL contenders, and it's about as close as you get to Arizona without being a Diamondback. I just don't get it.

Meanwhile in Yankeeland, the boss said, well if we're not going to get Randy and the Red Sox made a move, we have to do something. So they swapped Jose Contreras for Esteban Loaiza. This was a great deal for the White Sox, but really doesn't make any sense for the Yankees. Loaiza is not going to be a difference maker. The Yankees will coast into the playoffs, and then find themselves in a world of trouble because of their weak pitching, and Loaiza will be part of the problem.

Finally, I'd like to address the Wild Card issue. I know a lot of people like it, and from a pragmatic stand point, I would too if the Mariners were in the hunt. But there is a major flaw that, based on the current standings, ought to be obvious to many. Now I know people like to argue that it gives so many other teams a chance to compete for a playoff spot. This is true. At this time there are four teams in each league that have a reasonable shot of being the wild card team, in addition to the six division leaders, that means that almost half of the teams in baseball are really in the hunt, and that does not include Houston, Florida, and Cleveland, who are all within six games of the wild card themselves.

So what's the beef? The beef is that besides the AL West and maybe the NL East there are no good division races at all. The Twins, Yankees, Dodgers, and Cardinals all have leads of 6 games or more over the second place teams in there divisions. The Braves have a 4.5-game lead in the NL east. While the wild card allows us to have races when the divisions are seemingly sowed up, it puts us in a spot where we can never again, and I mean never, have a meaningful division race between the two best teams again.

You might recall the last great division race we had, which at this point will be the last one ever, between the Braves and Giants in 1993. The Braves won with 104 wins, and the Giants went home with 103. Tremendous victory for Atlanta, heartbreaking defeat for the Giants. Now, if this had been in a wildcard system, it would have mattered. The teams wouldn't even have played hard during the final few weeks of the season, because they would have known that they were both headed for the playoffs. The would have rested their regulars and gotten their pitching staffs in order for the postseason, and nobody would have cared. Don't believe me? Check out the 1996 NL West race. Or how about the 2001 NL Central?

The Cubs are currently 9.5 games behind the Cardinals, and in the old system, a come back would for them would have to be in the miracle category. They would have to play inspired baseball, and if they did it, it would captivate the nation. But under the current system, they don't have to do that at all. The just have to be okay. They have a 2-game lead in the wild card standings and all the have to do is fend off the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th best teams in the NL, one of which is a game below .500, and none of them are 10 games better than .500. And this argument applies across the board. The Phillies don't have to catch the Braves; they only have to catch the Cubs. The Red Sox don't have to catch the Yankees; they only have to catch the A's.

Then there's biggest insult of all. Let's assume that the Red Sox and Cubs win the wild card spots. Let’s assume that they win the first round of the playoffs and have to met with the Yankees and Cardinals in the respective LCS's. From a marketing standpoint, the league would just be absolutely thrilled, but why should the Yankees and Cardinals have to beat those teams again? They already trounced them in the 162-game series, yet they face the danger of loosing a well-deserved World Series berth to a team they already finished about 10 games up on during the season. The wild card is nothing more than egalitarian mediocrity parading itself as excitement.

I owe a great deal of this line of argumentation to Bob Costas. Costas took a similar stance in his book Fair Ball.

Posted by chefchuddy at August 6, 2004 10:09 AM