We've reached the half-way point in the 2004 baseball season. I've already made some All-Star comments, and since the system for selecting All-Stars is generally stupid, I'm going to skip further commentary on that matter. But I would like to make a few other observations so here we go:
Surprise Teams (AL and NL): Texas Rangers (still in the AL West hunt and current Wild Card leaders) and New York Mets (only 3 games out in the NL East).
Competing Teams that Won't Keep it Up: Cleveland Indians (it's hard to consider them a contender even now, but they are only 5 games out) and Cincinnati Reds (the pitching just can't keep it up, that is, Paul Wilson and Corey Lidle are not for real).
Dissapointing Teams: Seattle Mariners (I know a lot of experts didn't expect them to win the division, though some did, but nobody expected this kind of collapse) and Arizona Diamondbacks (see the comments on the Mariners).
Projected Rookies of the Year:
American League
Lew Ford, MIN: .317, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 10 SB, and stellar defense. Should be an All-Star.
Cliff Lee, CLE: 7-1, 4.13, 77K in 93 IP. Big reason Indians are still around.
Jason Frasor, TOR: 8 of 9 in saves, 1.78, 27 K in 35 IP. He's been great since taking over closer duties in mid-May.
Darkhorse Candidate: Joe Mauer
National League
Matt Holliday, COL: .294, 9 HR, 24RBI. Could be in trouble with Preston Wilson and Larry Walker back, but he's been the best NL rookie so far.
Ryan Freel, CIN; .277, 32 runs, 14 SB, plays everywhere. (Not sure about his rookie status.)
Khalil Greene, SDP: .263, 32 runs, 28 RBI. Plays everyday, which is the only requirement for shortstop ROY's.
Darkhorse Candidate: Kazuo Matsui
Projected Cy Young Award Winners:
American League
Mark Mulder, OAK: 11-2, 2.95, 83K, 4 Complete Games.
Curt Schilling, BOS: 11-4, 3.08, 110K, intangibles.
Kenny Rogers, TEX: 12-2, 3.65 for the once lowly Rangers.
Darkhorse Candidates: Johan Santana, Freddy Garcia
National League
Ben Sheets, MIL: 8-5, 2.42, 125K for a mediocre team.
Jason Schmidt, SFG: 10-2, 2.61, 112K. Two weeks ago I pick Schmidt, but Sheets looks better at this point.
Roger Clemens, HOU: 10-2, 2.54, 113K. All three of these guys are close.
Darkhorse Candidates: Carlos Zambrano, Carl Pavano
Projected MVPs
American League
Ivan Rodriguez, DET: .373 (leads MLB), 10, 57, 7 SB, has the Tigers competitive.
Vladimir Guerrero, ANA: .347, 20, 71, will need Angels to be in the playoff hunt to win this award.
Hank Blalock & Michael Young, TEX: Both are worthy; too hard to decide. .314/22/63 for Blalock, .332/11/49 for Young.
Darkhorse Candidates: David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez
Super-Darkhorse Candidate: Carl Crawford
National League
Scott Rolen, STL: .346, 18 HR, 80 RBI (leads MLB), fantastic glove, has led Cards to best NL record.
Bobby Abreu, PHI: .305, 17HR, 57 RBI, 17 SB. Phillie catalyst will ultimately lead team to division title.
Barry Bonds, SFG:.352, 22, 121 walks to 17 K's. Will contend for MVP as long as Giants contend for division title.
Darksorse Candidates: Albert Pujols, Jim Thome
Super-Darkhorse Candidate: Miguel Cabrera
Why do you consider Kaz Matsui a darkhorse ROY candidate rather than a top candidate?
Posted by: Josh McInnis at July 9, 2004 08:05 AMI simply feel he's less likely to win it than the others. He hasn't been great and the voters showed us last year that they've changed their minds about how to treat the Japanese imports. Nomo and Ichiro are foremers ROYs, while Hideki Matsui was clearly better than the AL field of rookies last year (including Berroa), yet he fell short.
Posted by: the booth at July 11, 2004 09:01 PM