Odd Thoughts

2004 Seattle Mariners Preview

The Bottom Line:
In certain senses, this will be the least impressive division winning team in 2004. Their stars are not of the obvious sort, and yet they have high-quality players at every position. They still have the best defense in baseball, and they made significant offensive upgrades in three line up spots. Their pitching should be better this year than it was last year, and at the end of the season, they’ll be the AL West champs.

Line Up:

The M’s offense was just a bit above average last year, but
they should be much better this year.  They made significant offensive upgrades
at three positions.  On paper, the group is just a notch below the Angels, but
their track record for staying healthy is much better, and they should have
enough punch to find themselves in the postseason.  As a group, this is still
the best defense in the American League. 

 

1. Ichiro, RF: He’s shown a tendency to fade down
   the stretch, but you have to believe he can sustain the attack for a whole
   year.  He’s still the best bet of any player in baseball to hit .400.  Many
   poetic baseball writers have lamented the decline of good baseball nicknames
   over the past few years, but I’ve got a good one for Ichiro that plays off
   the Babe’s “Sultan of Swat” and Ichiro’s ethnic origin: The Samurai of Slap.


2. Rich Aurilia, SS: He’ll never again hit like he
   did in 2001, but he should be able to rebound from a disappointing 2003 that
   saw him miss games because of appendicitis and pink eye of all things. 
   Carlos Guillen wasn’t bad, but Aurilia is an improvement on defense too.


3. Bret Boone, 2B: Soriano provides a little more
   offense, but when you throw defense into the picture, Boone is the best
   second baseman in baseball.


4. Raul Ibanez, LF: For three straight years he’s
   put up respectable numbers.  There’s no reason to think he can’t do so
   again.


5. Edgar Martinez, DH: Many, including Edgar,
   thought last year would be the end, but he produced well and stayed healthy
   in the important areas (he did play the last several weeks of the season
   with a broken toe, but his knees and hamstrings held up) and decided to give
   it one more shot.  Even at age 40, he managed to finish among the top 5 in
   OBP (.406) and was voted to start in the All-Star game.


6. Scott Spiezio, 3B: There is some reason to be
   concerned about his defense, as he has not played third regularly for a few
   years.  He’s not an All-Star caliber hitter either, but he’s respectable
   enough and way better than anything Jeff Cirillo ever did in Seattle.


7. John Olerud, 1B: Olerud lost a lot of his pop
   last year, but all his plate discipline numbers were still there.  Maybe it
   was just a fluke.  He says this could be his last year. 


8. Ben Davis, C: Dan Wilson will still get some
   time, but the platoon between Davis and Wilson will probably see Davis
   playing three or four out of every five games.  Wilson will definitely be
   Jamie Moyer’s personal catcher, but Davis should play enough to be
   considered a regular.


9. Randy Winn, CF: This is another of Melvin’s
   proposed line up changes.  His theory is that he’ll be on base a lot in
   front of Ichiro.  He seemed to have difficulty adjusting to Seattle during
   the first half of the year, but he was a stud in the second half.  I’d love
   to see him do it for a full year.

 

Pitching:

Out of all the coulds and shoulds and woulds surrounding
the top pitching staffs in baseball, the Mariners were the only team in the AL
last year that did.  It wasn’t the Yankees or the Red Sox or the A’s leading the
pack, and it won’t be the Angels this year.  And they did it without ever
knowing which Freddy Garcia was going to show up.  On paper they don’t have the
best starting five (though it’s up there) and the don’t have the best bullpen
(so they say), but at the end of the year this will be the best group of 11 arms
in baseball – wait and see.

 

1. Jamie Moyer, L: He’s coming into his prime at
   41.  He’s won 54 games over the last three years, he made his first All-Star
   team last year at age 40, he’s under contract for another year, and he’s
   shown absolutely no signs of loosing his effectiveness.  I know it’s weird
   and it can’t go on forever but I feel like he’ll walk away before he becomes
   ineffective.  He’s the smartest pitcher in the AL, and Greg Maddux is his
   only rival in the game.


2. Freddy Garcia, R: It’s hard to tell how much
   his ear problems affected him last year, but it does make sense of how he
   was able to be the best pitcher in the AL in June and September and look
   like he belonged in the Rangers rotation the rest of the time.  For what
   it’s worth, he had surgery to fix his ears.  Robbie believes Garcia and the
   team have downplayed the ear problem so they’ll have the edge on opponents
   in the early parts of the year.


3. Joel Pineiro, R: Like most of the Mariners,
   Pineiro struggled down the stretch, but he still finished with respectable
   numbers.  The Mariners believe he’s their ace of the future, and he very
   well could be.


4. Ryan Franklin, R: Many experts believe Franklin
   over-achieved last year, and maybe he did.  Even so, most other teams would
   be happy to have him at their #4 spot.  Look at the numbers and tell me why
   Kelvim Escobar is really any better.


5. Gil Meche, R: Before last year, Meche had not
   pitched in the majors for several years.  He surprised everybody and came on
   strong in the first half.  Not surprisingly he struggled in the second half,
   but he should have more stamina this year.

M’s Pitching Note: If any
one of these guys gets hurt or becomes ineffective, they have four guys (three
in the minors and Rafael Soriano) that are ready to step in right now.

Closer Eddie Guardado, L:
After Kazuhiro Sasaki bailed, Guardado became the man.  Most teams would be
worried that their closer just quite baseball, but Guardado has over 80 saves in
the last two years.  In fact, if you combine the last two years, he’s been the
most effective closer in the American League.  On top of all of that, the M’s
have two more options (Soriano and Shigetoshi Hasegawa) if he goes down. 

 

 

Remarkably Similar
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
Bret Boone (11)	5764	820	1554	221	901	80	468	.270	.777
Joe Gordon (11)	5707	914	1530	253	975	89	759	.268	.823

 

The Mariners had a lot of good
options for comparisons.  Because the choices were so good, I’ve chosen to do
two, and I’ve done it without using obvious choices like Edgar Martinez and
Jamie Moyer.  Anyway, you’re probably wondering who the heck is Joe Gordon? 
Well, he was a second baseman for the Yankees from 1938-1943, he went to WWII in
’44 and ’45, came back to the Yankees in 1946, then finished out his career in
Cleveland from 1947-1950.  He was an All-Star 9 times, and he won the AL MVP in
1942.  Bill James believes he should be in the Hall of Fame, and for him to say
that means a whole lot.  Boone is a good comparison, but Gordon still has an
edge.  Boone needs three or four more solid seasons to become a legitimate
candidate.

Remarkably Similar
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
John Olerud (14)	6994	1076	2079	239	1145	11	1198	.297	.873
Don Mattingly (14)	7003	1007	2153	222	1099	14	588	.307	.829

 

Many people argue that Mattingly
should be in the Hall of Fame.  While I’m not convinced, I’m at least
willing to hear the argument.  No one, however, seems to think Olerud even
has a chance (which he doesn’t) or that he should even be considered.  But
look what they’ve done.  It’s extremely close.  Going beyond the
numbers, they were both considered the premier defensive first basemen of their
day.  If you look at their season-to-season numbers though, you see a huge
difference.  Mattingly was a baseball stud from 1984-1989.  In three
of those years he finished in the top 5 in MVP voting, winning the award
outright in 1985.  Considering the offensive standards of the mid-80’s, his
numbers in 1985 and 1986 are just staggering.  Olerud, on the other hand,
has been pretty even throughout his career.  He was great in 1993, winning
the batting title and leading the AL in OPS.  He finished third in the MVP
voting that year, and that’s the only time he ever cracked the top ten. 
Besides that year, he’s been good but not great.  I guess this just goes to
show what five good years with the Yankees can be worth.  Seriously though,
it's clear that Mattingly was much, much faster.

 

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Bret Boone


2. Ichiro


3. Eddie Guardado


4. Jamie Moyer


5. Joel Pineiro
   

Posted by at April 2, 2004 09:50 AM