Odd Thoughts

2004 Anaheim Angels Preview

The Bottom Line:
I know this team looks good. I know the experts say they’ll win this division outright. But I’m telling you they’re wrong. The experts have always been wrong when it comes to the Angels. Half of them predicted they’d return to the playoffs in 2003 – and why shouldn’t they? They had the exact same team. Instead they went from 99 wins in 2002 to 77 in 2003, never even sniffing wild card contention. The truth is, the 2003 pattern has happened a whole lot more than the 2002 (which no expert predicted either). The did add Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon, but those guys won’t be enough to give them a division crown. They’ll contend. They could even win the wild card, but as for their AL West finish, it will be second place.

2004 Anaheim Angels Preview

 

The Bottom Line:

I know this team looks good.  I know the experts say
they’ll win this division outright.  But I’m telling you they’re wrong.  The
experts have always been wrong when it comes to the Angels.  Half of them
predicted they’d return to the playoffs in 2003 – and why shouldn’t they?  They
had the exact same team.  Instead they went from 99 wins in 2002 to 77 in 2003,
never even sniffing wild card contention.  The truth is, the 2003 pattern has
happened a whole lot more than the 2002 (which no expert predicted either).  The
did add Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon, but those guys won’t be enough to
give them a division crown.  They’ll contend.  They could even win the wild
card, but as for their AL West finish, it will be second place.

 

Line Up:

On paper, this appears to be the best offense in the AL
West, and short of the Yankees, the best in the American League.  But the Angel
offense has looked good in March since 1995, and only once has it panned out. 
Erstad, Salmon, and Glaus are constant injury risks, and this line up won’t be
much without them.

 

1. David Eckstein, SS: Like most of the Angels,
   Eckstein’s numbers took a significant dip from 2002 to 2003.  Plus he missed
   42 games.  He can be an exciting player, but don’t let one October
   appearance make you believe that he’s a great shortstop.


2. Darin Erstad, 1B: What kind of sense does it
   make to move your gold glove caliber center fielder to first so you can move
   your left fielder to center to accommodate an even worse fielder in left
   (Jose Guillen)?  I just don’t get it.  It’s becoming clear that Erstad’s
   phenomenal 2000 season was the exception, not the rule.


3. Vladimir Guerrero, RF: Guerrero was the premier
   free agent from this past winter.  He should still perform at a super-human
   level, but as he’s shown for years in Montreal, you can’t do it alone.  I
   know he’s not technically alone, but it takes more than three solid hitters
   to make an offense good.


4. Garrett Anderson, CF: He might be the most
   underrated player in baseball.  Anderson had another solid season and is the
   only long-time Angel to consistently do so.


5. Tim Salmon, DH: It’s starting to look like he’s
   through.


6. Jose Guillen, LF: He had a huge year in 2003
   between Cincinnati and Oakland, but it’s hard to tell if it was for real. 
   If he is for real, he’ll move into the #5 hole.


7. Troy Glaus, 3B: Glaus elected to go through
   rehab rather than have surgery on his shoulder – a problem that limited him
   to only 91 games last year.  You can expect it to flare up again.


8. Bengie Molina, C: In addition to emerging as
   the best defensive catcher in the AL, he’s established himself as a solid
   hitter with occasional power.  There’s just something about this guy that I
   like.


9. Adam Kennedy, 2B: He’s respectable, but he’s
   not nearly as good as many would have you believe.

 

Pitching:

This is a good rotation and an excellent bullpen, but it’s
not the best in the division.  Though the signings of Andy Pettitte and Roger
Clemens got more media attention, the Angel’s signing of Bartolo Colon was far
more significant.  There are some concerns about Troy Percival’s health, but the
Angels have plenty of options if he falls apart.

 

1. Bartolo Colon, R: Colon’s won/loss record
   (15/13) hardly reflects how effective he is.  He did have occasional
   consistency problems, but the White Sox blew a lot of situations for him
   too.  He’s also been very durable the last few years, throwing 242 innings
   and 9 complete games in 2003.  All of this and he’s only the fourth best
   pitcher in the division.


2. Jarrod Washburn, L: Washburn had some tough
   times last year, but he really is a good pitcher.


3. Kelvim Escobar, R: Judging from the media
   attention this past winter, you’d think Escobar had some real
   accomplishments under his belt.  He might be good, but does 13/9 with a 4.29
   ERA seem like numbers to be excited about?


4. Ramon Ortiz, R: He can brilliant, but he can
   also make you very frustrated.  Maybe this is partially because of the
   defense behind him, but a 5.20 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP hardly inspires
   confidence.


5. John Lackey, R: Lackey was durable enough (204
   innings), but he was also quite hitable (4.63 ERA).  Aaron Sele could win
   this spot.

Closer Troy Percival, R:
My gut tells me that Francisco Rodriguez will be the regular closer by the
All-Star break. 

 

Remarkably Similar
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
Tim Salmon (12)	5537	941	1571	288	966	47	927	.284	.895
Lary Doby (13)	5348	960	1515	253	970	47	871	.283	.876

 

Those are Doby’s career numbers and he is in the Hall of
Fame, but he’s a special case player as he was the first black player in the
American League.  Salmon, unless he keeps playing and producing for many more
years, is still far from being a Hall of Fame candidate.

 

 

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Vladimir Guerrero


2. Bartolo Colon


3. Garrett Anderson


4. Troy Glaus


5. Bengie Molina

Posted by at April 2, 2004 09:40 AM