2004 Oakland A’s Preview
The Bottom Line:
Some experts believe the A’s can repeat as AL West champs, but they’re telling themselves a story. They’re just the American League version of the Dodgers: one great hitter (Eric Chavez) and a great starting staff. The biggest difference is that the Dodgers have a great bullpen too – other than that, they’re an identical pair. GM Billy Beane could make a big move between now and July to change their outlook, but they’re really just a third place team. And that’s where they’ll be at the end of the year.
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Line Up:
Like I said before, they only have one great hitter, and
there’s really no reason to pitch to him.
- Mark Ellis, 2B: Is a .313 on base percentage
that doesn’t steal bases really the best way to start a game? Does it speak
well of a “retooled” line up that Ellis is the best option for this role?
- Scott Hatteberg, 1B: Hatteberg is a decent
hitter and a likeable guy, but he’s a far cry the offensive production
team’s normally get from first base.
- Eric Chavez, 3B: He’s the A’s only hitting star
and he’ll be gone by 2005, if not sooner. He could suffer the most from
loosing Miguel Tejada’s line up protection.
- Jermaine Dye, RF: Dye hasn’t been good since
he left Kansas City. If he can return to that year 2000 form, he could make
the line up a little more respectable, but he’s been projected to do that
for two years now and he hasn’t.
- Erubiel Durazo, DH: He really is better than
most people give him credit for. The DH rule is perfect for him.
- Bobby Keilty, LF: Keilty was one of the many
outfield prospects that the Twins didn’t have room for. It’s hard to know
what he can really do after playing only three half-seasons. That’s not his
fault, but there shouldn’t be any room for excuses after 2004.
- Mark Kotsay, CF: Kotsay still plays great
defense, but I haven’t heard any explanation for his enormous 2003 fall
off. Is it bad to be a poor man’s Steve Finley?
- Bobby Crosby, SS: The A’s have had a very
productive farm system the last few years, and Crosby is supposed to be the
cream of the latest crop. The way things are going, he should be in
Chavez’s shoes in five years. Seriously, he looks like a great prospect.
- Damien Miller, C: If you were looking for the
future Brad Ausmus or Mike Matheny, look no further. I’m not picking on
Ausmus or Matheny – you can get away with that when you have a line up like
the Astros or Cardinals, but this is not the kind of batting order where
they can afford to have an all-defense/no-offense catcher.
Pitching:
At this point, I think the Red Sox’ rotation is better, but
Redman is solid and Harden could be great. If that happens, the A’s staff will
be the best.
- Tim Hudson, R: It’s hard to tell if Hudson is
really the best pitcher on this team, but he’s the ace according to
seniority, plus he had the best 2003 of the group. There’s a good chance
Hudson will join Chavez on the free agent market after this season.
- Mark Mulder, L: Mulder was a Cy Young
candidate, but a hip problem shut him down in mid-August. Despite the
injury, he still led the AL with nine complete games. He’s said to be 100%,
so look out.
- Barry Zito, L: He dropped off from his Cy Young
performance in 2002, but he was still solid, and there’s no reason to think
he can’t use that phenomenal curve ball to win another. If you’re looking
for the best starting three in baseball, you’ve found it.
- Mark Redman, L: Redman had a great season in
Florida last year and will fit right in with this group. He’d be #2 guy on
a lot of teams.
- Rich Harden, R: He burned hot and flamed out
fast in his first major league stint, but the A’s hope he’s ready to replace
Hudson in the top three next year.
Closer Arthur Rhodes, L:
Anybody notice that the A’s keep making average closers look like they’re the
best in the league (Isringhausen, Koch, Foulke)? Rhodes will be a huge success
in 2004, and it goes back to the earlier comparison to the Dodgers: the good
starting pitchers and poor offense will create a ton of save opportunities.
| Remarkably Similar |
|
W |
L |
PCT |
IP |
ER |
K |
BB |
ERA |
WHIP |
|
| Mark Mulder (4) |
64 |
34 |
.653 |
777.1 |
326 |
528 |
215 |
3.77 |
1.26 |
| Barry Zito (4) |
61 |
29 |
.678 |
768 |
266 |
611 |
291 |
3.12 |
1.18 |
| Tim Hudson (4*) |
64 |
26 |
.711 |
812 |
309 |
634 |
277 |
3.42 |
1.26 |
This was the most interesting situation on the Oakland
team. Hudson’s numbers are from his first four seasons (he’s played five). It
is very difficult to come to a conclusion as to which of the three is the best
so far. My suspicion is that Hudson and Mulder have more dominant seasons, but
that Zito is more likely to have a long career. It’s just a hunch though.
Fantasy Top 5:
- Tim Hudson
- Mark Mulder
- Eric Chavez
- Barry Zito
- Arthur Rhodes
Posted by at April 2, 2004 09:36 AM