Odd Thoughts

2004 Houston Astros Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Astros had several injuries last year that kept them from running away with the division. None of the injuries were serious, but they caused a lot of lost time from key players like Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, and Jeff Kent. Even with the injuries they managed to keep pace with the Cubs and fell short of the playoffs in the last weekend of the season. Now the Astros are, but the Cubs are better too. It’s difficult to really say one of those two teams will come out on top over the other. I firmly believe that they are the two best teams in the NL and both will be in the playoffs. My gut tells me it will be the Astros going in as the division winner.

Line Up:

I’m not saying this is the best line up in the National
League, but it could be.

 

1. Craig Biggio, CF: This is a make or break year
   for one of the best players of the 90’s.  He’s shown signs of age for the
   last two years, but I believe he’s got something left. 


2. Morgan Ensberg, 3B: He could emerge as the best
   hitting third baseman in baseball after some very impressive numbers in his
   first year.  He played 127 games in 2003, but not all of them as the
   starter.  Nevertheless, he hit .291 with excellent plate discipline, and he
   hit 25 homers.


3. Jeff Bagwell, 1B: Expect the usual.


4. Lance Berkman, LF: Berkman was slowed by
   injuries in the first part of 2003, and he never quite got back to the
   fantastic level of play he’d shown in 2001 and 2002, but every indication is
   that he’ll be at full strength for 2004.


5. Jeff Kent, 2B: Like Berkman, Kent had some
   nagging injury problems last year too.  I also expect he’ll return to form.


6. Richard Hidalgo, RF: He’s decent, but I want to
   see more consistency before I crown him as an offensive gem.


7. Adam Everett, SS: He needs to hit better than
   .256 to keep his job.  He is a fantastic defender.


8. Brad Ausmus, C: He always does what’s expected
   – great defense, little offense, but he really doesn’t have to hit.

 

Pitching:

They already had a solid young nucleus of pitchers.  Now
they’re even better after the huge signings of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.

 

1. Roy Oswalt, R: I though he’d be the best
   pitcher in baseball last year.  Instead he struggled with injuries that
   limited his availability.  The injuries didn’t interfere with his effective
   ness tough.  He was well on his way to 18+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and over
   200 strikeouts.


2. Andy Pettitte, L: Pettitte has been a great
   big-game pitcher, and he really is good, but his numbers won’t be as good
   outside of New York.


3. Roger Clemens, R: I don’t see any reason he
   can’t match last year’s numbers.


4. Wade Miller, R: Like Oswalt, Miller has health
   problems last year too, but unlike Oswalt, they did affect his performance. 
   He’ll be back.


5. Tim Redding, R: Redding’s numbers were a lot
   better than his 10 and 14 record indicates.  The biggest difference in the
   Astros/Cubs rotation comparison is the #5 spot, but the margin between
   Redding and Matt Clement are not as great as many seem to think.

Closer Octavio Dotel, R:
He’ll make a believer out of everybody this year.  He’s been really good, maybe
even the best, over the last few years, he just hasn’t had that fluffy save stat
to help him get the recognition he’s deserved.

 

 

Remarkably Similar
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
Craig Biggio (16)	8588	1503	2461	210	931	389	1020	.287	.807
Paul Molitor (17*)	8610	1482	2647	196	976	454	887	.307	.828

 

This comparison is a bit different from the others I’ve
done.  I chose this one because I’ve long thought of the two as comparable
players, although Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Joe Morgan, and Ryne Sandberg
rate higher on Biggio’s list of comparable players than Molitor does.  Anyway, I
thought I’d check it out anyway, and they compare favorably.  I chose to use 17
seasons from Molitor rather than 16 because that puts both players at the season
they each completed at 37-years-old.  The differences between the two are
slight, but Molitor has the career edge.  I do believe that Biggio should be a
Hall of Famer even if he retired today, but he has not yet reached the
milestones that Molitor did.  Furthermore, Biggio might not reach them
(particularly 3000 hits).  Fter age 37, Molitor played four more years, all of
them at a productive level, and one of them at a superstar level (at age 39
Molitor hit .341 with 225 hits and 113 RBI’s).  Biggio does have the edge on
defense, with four gold gloves to zero.  Molitor has the edge in MVP top tens at
four to three, plus Molitor has a World Series MVP, while Biggio has never hit
well in the postseason.  Anyway, I’d like to see Biggio go into the Hall, but he
would make his case a lot easier if he can hang on long enough to get 539 more
hits.

 

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Roy Oswalt


2. Lance Berkman


3. Jeff Bagwell


4. Jeff Kent


5. Octavio Dotel 

Posted by at April 1, 2004 08:56 AM