Odd Thoughts

2004 Chicago Cubs Preview

The Bottom Line:
Most of my feelings on this are in the Astros preview. To sum up, I think the Cubs are very good. I think they’ll be playing ball in October, but they’ll be doing it as the wild card team. I can’t make any real logical explanation as to why I feel the Astros will top the Cubs in the division; it’s just a gut feeling.

Line Up:

The Cubs have made a big push for this to be the year,
making significant offensive upgrades at three positions and expecting to
benefit from a full season of Aramis Ramirez and Corey Patterson.  Add in the 25
games that Sammy Sosa missed last year and this is one of the scariest batting
orders in baseball.

 

1. Corey Patterson, CF: Patterson was fantastic
   for the first half of the season until he went down with an injury.  He
   still has enormous plate discipline issues but expect him to pick up where
   he left off last July.


2. Mark Grudzielanek, 2B: He was great last year. 
   He hit .314 and made a lot of contact.  However, Todd Walker is sitting the
   bench behind him.  Grudzielanek had a better OBP but Walker had better
   slugging.  They’re both terrible on defense, but they’re both good hitters. 
   Walker is 3 years younger.  Ultimately, it just doesn’t make sense to have
   both guys on the team.


3. Derek Lee, 1B: I’m not sure Lee will bat third,
   but I believe he should.  He’ll already have better numbers just from having
   a better ballpark to hit in, but how much more will he do with Sammy Sosa
   batting behind him?  He’s shown consistent improvement over the last three
   years, and he’s probably the best defensive first basemen in the NL despite
   what the gold glove voters said.


4. Sammy Sosa, RF: A lot of people wondered what
   happened to Sammy last year, but when you consider that he missed 25 games
   between a toe injury and a suspension, and some of the time he was playing
   he was slowed by the toe, that 40 home runs and 103 RBI’s doesn’t look that
   bad.  And really, when is 40 and 103 ever bad?


5. Moises Alou, LF: If you examine Alou’s career
   numbers you’ll notice that this is a year when he is supposed to miss most
   of the season with an injury.


6. Aramis Ramirez, 3B: Ramirez broke through his
   2002 sophmore slump with 27 home runs and 106 RBI’s between Pittsburg and
   Chicago.  He’s not in the Mike Lowell/Scott Rolen caliber of third basemen
   (as a hitter), but he’s not far away either.


7. Alex Gonzalez, SS: He’s not perfect, but he’s a
   good defender (and he’ll have to be between Ramirez and Grudzielanek/Walker)
   and he always seems to get the big hits.


8. Michael Barrett, C: Barrett dropped off the
   radar for the last two years, but at one time he was considered to be a
   quality all-round guy.  Apparently the Cubs believe he still can be, but I’m
   not convinced.

 

Pitching:

The best starting five in baseball?  Absolutely.

 

1. Mark Prior, R: Prior was one of the best in
   baseball last year, and he should be even better this year, but I offer
   these words of caution:  he’s young and he worked a lot last year.  Remember
   Steve Avery?


2. Kerry Wood, R: He’s good, but he’s not as good
   as Prior.  Wood is more in the Nolan Ryan mold, while Prior is a
   Pedro-type.  Being Nolan Ryan isn’t bad, but Pedro is a much better pitcher.


3. Greg Maddux, R: He’ll get his 300^th
   win sometime in July.  I hope he does it against Roger Clemens.  Don’t be
   fooled by Maddux’s “off” year in 2003.  He is still the smartest pitcher in
   the NL, and he dealt with some tough breaks last year.


4. Carlos Zambrano, R: This might sound a little
   funny, but he’s the poor man’s Kerry Wood.


5. Matt Clement, R: He’s another high-strikeout
   kind of pitcher.  He’s fifth in this group but he’d be 2^nd or 3^rd
   on a lot of other rotations.

Closer Joe Borowski, R:
Borowski was great once he inherited the closer role last May.  A lack of
long-term experience has led to speculation that LaTroy Hawkins will take over
if he slips.

 

 

Remarkably Similar
	W	L	PCT	IP	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
Greg Maddux (18)	289	163	.639	3968.2	2765	838	2.89	1.13
Jim Palmer (19)	268	152	.638	3948	2212	1311	2.86	1.18

 

Obviously, Maddux doesn’t really need to make an argument
for the Hall of Fame.  He probably could have retired 3 years ago and still made
it.  In the comparison above, it’s clear that Maddux is the more dominating
pitcher, and the line of argument (as if the stats don’s tell enough) is the
eras in which the two players pitched.  Palmer began his career in the mid-60’s,
which was the most pitching dominated era in the game’s history, while Maddux
did most of his work in the 90’s.  Maddux’s list of his ten most comparable
players has nine Hall of Famers on it.  The other guy is Roger Clemens.

 

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Mark Prior


2. Sammy Sosa


3. Kerry Wood


4. Derek Lee


5. Greg Maddux

Posted by at April 1, 2004 08:51 AM