Odd Thoughts

2004 St. Louis Cardinals Preview

The Bottom Line:
I must confess I’m confused about Walt Jocketty and the rest of the St. Louis front office. They have a generally winning tradition and the money and fan base to support it, and yet they really did nothing to address their needs during the winter. They still have one of the best hitting and fielding teams in the National League, but they also have big pitching problems from top to bottom. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Astros both made tremendous off-season improvements, taking a three-team race down to two with the Cardinals being the odd team out. Career years from the starting rotation puts the Cardinals right the playoff mix with the Cubs and Astros, but that seems very unlikely considering there proven starters have injury issues and their other starters are not proven. It’s not impossible for them to compete, in fact, they probably will until mid-August or so, but their well-rounded competitors will leave them looking up from third place.

Line Up:

The line up is largely the same as last year’s edition; itt
was the best in the NL.  They could be the best again, but the Astros, Cubs, and
Phillies have all taken a step forward.  Regardless of which team finishes as
“the best,” the Cardinal bats are scary.

 

1. Marlon Anderson, 2B: After a few down years in
   Philly, Anderson became respectable again in Tampa.  He hit .270 and stole
   19 bases.  Bo Hart could win this spot.


2. Edgar Renteria, SS: Let’s see: he won a gold
   glove, he stole 34 bases, he hit .330, and he drove in 100 (out of the #2
   spot!).  He finally earned his due and got elected to start in the All-Star
   game.  He should be able to duplicate all of those feats except the All-Star
   spot.  He’ll still be the guy that should make it, but the Japanese voters
   will make sure that Mets shortstop Kazuo Matsui gets the spot, regardless of
   how he plays.  Sorry Edgar.  Now that A-Rod has moved to third base,
   Renteria is the best all-around shortstop in baseball.


3. Albert Pujols, 1B: One could argue that he
   should have been the MVP last year.  But rest assured, he’ll get one.  He’s
   only 24 and he have not yet seen just how great he can be.


4. Jim Edmonds, CF: The career stats say Edmonds
   will have a better year this year (He’s on when Moises Alou is off – you can
   look it up).


5. Scott Rolen, 3B: He’s the best third baseman in
   baseball, both at the plate and in the field, yet he’s only the fourth best
   player on the team.


6. Reggie Sanders, RF: He the premier
   rent-a-player in the game.  He hit .285 with 31 home runs and 15 stolen
   bases for the Pirates last year.


7. Kerry Robinson, LF: He’s the safe bet to win
   this spot, but Mark Quinn, Greg Vaughn, and Ray Lankford are all in camp
   trying to win this spot.  I’m not willing to make a guess as to who will get
   it, but I have to believe that one of those guys can emerge over Robinson.


8. Mike Matheny, C: He’s on a very short list of
   all defense/no offense players that doesn’t really hurt the team.  He also
   seems to be a real class act.

 

Pitching:

As always, health is the key.  If this bunch can stay
healthy and effective, we’ll have a quality three-team race like the 2002 AL
West.  But the Cardinals seem to have some bad luck when it comes to pitching
health, and they’ll have to show they can stay healthy before this team gets the
kind of respect Josh Melton would like.

 

1. Matt Morris, R: He won 22 games in 2001 and 18
   in 2002.  He did pitch in 27 games last year, but he really pitched more
   than he should have, considering the nature of his injuries and his
   importance to the staff.  It’s getting harder and harder to believe that
   Cardinal pitcher will be healthy, but I hope Morris can bounce back, just to
   make things interesting.


2. Woody Williams, R: Williams had a career year
   last year, winning 18 games and making the All-Star team, but health
   concerns have already popped up this spring.


3. Jeff Suppan, L: He was solid in the first half
   for Pittsburgh and terrible in the second half for Boston.  It’s hard to say
   which guy will show up this year.


4. Chris Carpenter, R: He was good for Toronto in
   2001 and part of 2002, but he hasn’t pitched in a major league game since
   that time.


5. Jason Marquis, R: He came over from the Braves
   in the J.D. Drew deal.  He had bounced around from AAA to Atlanta and from
   the rotation to the bullpen.  The last time the Braves parted with a guy
   like that, he turned out to be Odalis Perez.  The Braves did that a few
   years ago with another pitcher named Jason Schmidt.

Closer Jason Isringhausen, R:
When he came back from injuries, he was as effective as ever: 2.36 ERA and 41
strikeouts in 42 innings.

 

 

Remarkably Similar
	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OPS
Albert Pujols (3)	1771	367	591	114	381	8	220	.334	1.025
Joe DiMaggio (3*)	1857	412	615	107	432	13	147	.331	.941

 

Normally, I prefer to use a player with 10 or more years of
experience, and the Cardinals have some players that qualify, but I just
couldn’t pass up on this one.  It’s not necessary to give this one deep analysis
since Pujols is only 23 and a lot can still happen.  But consider the list of
the ten players most similar to Pujols through age 23.  It contains eight Hall
of Famers (DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Joe Medwick, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson,
Orlando Cepeda, Ted Williams, Stan Musial), one current player (Vladimir
Guerrero), and Hal Trosky who somehow never even made the All-Star team.  He did
finish in the top ten in MVP voting twice, including 1936 when he hit .343 on
216 hits, scored 124 runs, with 42 homers and 162 RBI.  Judging from the list,
Pujols has about a 90% chance of becoming a Hall of Famer.

 

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Albert Pujols


2. Edgar Renteria


3. Scott Rolen


4. Jim Edmonds


5. Jason Isringhausen

Posted by at April 1, 2004 08:46 AM