Odd Thoughts

2004 Boston Red Sox Preview

The Bottom Line:
The Red Sox made some huge moves during the winter, and it could really pay off if they get to play in October. Some people think they’ll win the East, and nobody denies that they’re legitimate wild card contenders, but in a division where every team made significant upgrades it won’t be as easy as it was last year. Please allow me remind you (please read this in your best Jim Rome voice) they are the Red Sox. They’re the Daffy Duck to New York’s Bugs Bunny. I wish it wasn’t so, but I’m afraid it is. They do look really good. They look good enough to win any division in baseball. But the Yankees are a mountainous obstacle, and the Red Sox have not shown themselves able to overcome it. As a result, I see the Red Sox likely making the playoffs, but only as the wild card team

Line Up:

2003’s best offense will still be good in 2004, but not
nearly as good as they were last year.  You just cannot expect to have a line up
where all of your roll players have career years.

 

1. Johnny Damon, CF: he’s one of the few returning
   members from the 2003 team that could equal or exceed his numbers from last
   season.


2. Bill Mueller, 3B: There’s no way he can repeat
   as the AL batting champ.  He’s decent hitter and a great fielder, but .285
   with 15 homers is more like it.


3. Nomar Garciaparra, SS: Unlike most of the
   roster in 2003, Nomar did not have a career year in 2003; it was a great
   year, but he’s had better, and he can be better again.  If he can be happy
   after being shopped around all winter he could return to his days of hitting
   .350. 


4. Manny Ramirez, LF: Manny was completely exposed
   last October, and after the embarrassment of being put on unconditional
   waivers just weeks after the World Series, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll
   give a 100% effort.  He’ll be good, but 2004 is likely to be a career year
   for Manny.


5. David Ortiz, DH: Ortiz’s numbers are for real. 
   He’s a legitimate 30 to 40 homer guy, with a knack for the clutch.  But
   he’ll still lead the team in strikeouts.


6. Trot Nixon, RF: Nixon looked good last year. 
   He probably won’t match those numbers, but he probably won’t fall too far
   away from them either.


7. Kevin Millar, 1B: Millar was solid and he will
   remain so.


8. Jason Varitek, C: He’s the best of the second
   tier catchers.


9. Pokey Reese, 2B: Reese’s glove will more than
   make up for Todd Walker’s bat. 

 

Pitching:

While Kim looks questionable as the #5 guy, this is the
best rotation in the American League.

 

1. Pedro Martinez, R: Pete’s in a contract year,
   so look for all those little ailments that cause him to miss starts (like
   sore throats) to miraculously disappear.  He might not be the 1999 Pedro,
   but he’ll be close.


2. Curt Schilling, R: There no reason to believe
   Schilling won’t return to his 2002 form, despite suffering from freak
   injuries last year.  Schilling is the only guy to be clearly among the best
   five pitchers in the game and still not be the ace on his own team.


3. Derek Lowe, L: Probably somewhere between his
   breakout 2002 and his disappointing 2003.  He sure came up big against
   Oakland.


4. Tim Wakefield, R: He’s the only guy in my
   entire major league preview that will still be pitching in 2030.


5. Byung-Hyun Kim, R: This is a huge experiment
   that could have a big payoff or be a total disaster.  Fantasy owners beware.

Closer Keith Foulke, R:
Getting the 2003 AL Saves leader is a huge improvement over the
closer-by-committee program they had at the beginning of ’03.  There’s something
about him though that makes me feel he’s not really among the premier closers in
the game.

 

Remarkably Similar
	W	L	PCT	IP	ER	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
Pedro Martinez (12)	166	67	.713	2079	597	2426	554	2.58	1.01
Sandy Koufax (12)	165	87	.655	2324.1	713	2396	817	2.76	1.11

 

You can usually find few objections to listing Koufax among
the greatest pitchers of all time, and that’s true.  He choose to end his career
early (due to arthritis), but he went out on top (27 and 5 in his final year). 
But I’m here to tell you that Pedro is even better.  Koufax compiled those
numbers in the most pitching dominated era in baseball history in the best
pitcher’s park, while Pedro has pitched in an era of huge offense in a great
hitter’s park.  The more I look at the numbers, the less debatable it becomes.

 

 

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Pedro Martinez


2. Curt Schilling


3. Nomar Garciaparra


4. Manny Ramirez


5. Keith Foulke

Posted by at March 30, 2004 11:53 PM