2004 Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Bottom Line:
Ed Wade and the fine folks in the Phillie organization have built a great team just in time for the opening of their new ballpark. Whether they’re good or not, we should all support the Phillies just for getting rid of Veteran Stadium. As if that’s not enough, they’re finally going to do it: the Phillies are going to unseat the Braves as the NL East Champions and make their first postseason appearance since Mitch Williams faced Joe Carter in the 1993 World Series. I believe that the Cubs and Astros are actually better teams than the Phillies, but given the weakness of the NL East, they have a good shot at finishing with the best record in the National League.
New Page 2
Line Up:
For several years the now, the Phils have planned to open
their new ballpark with a powerful line up, and the pieces appear to be in
place. The line up will be largely the same as last year, but they’re expecting
Marlon Byrd to emerge as a force in the leadoff spot, Pat Burrell to bounce back
to his 2002 form, and they’ve realized the Placido Polanco is too good to keep
out of the line up.
- Marlon Byrd, CF: Byrd hit .303 with a decent
enough OBP (.366) in his first full season. The experts have been telling
for three years that Byrd will be an impact player, and 2004 will be the
year he makes the impact.
- Placido Polanco, 2B: Polanco had excellent
numbers across the board last year. Good enough that had he been the
regular from the beginning of the year, he would rank right up there with
Marcus Giles among NL second basemen. He’s an All-Star in waiting.
- Bobby Abreu, RF: He’s yet to become truly
great, but he has been consistently very, very good over the past few
years. He’s a true five-tool guy.
- Jim Thome, 1B: I wouldn’t worry about his
damaged middle finger. He’ll be ready to go by opening day, and he’s a good
bet to repeat as NL home run champ.
- Mike Lieberthal, C: As far as good hitting
catchers go, he’s just a notch below the elite guys, but he’s better than
everybody else.
- Pat Burrell, 1B: There’s no explanation for
Burrell’s sudden inability to make contact. The Phillies will contend
without him, but they could run away with it if he hits like he did in 2002.
- Jimmy Rollins, SS: If he could just improve his
plate discipline he’d be one of the best shortstops in baseball. Until then
he’s just a poor (and I mean very poor) man’s Edgar Renteria.
- David Bell, 3B: This spot belongs to Bell right
now, but if he stumbles out of the gate, look for Bowa to move Polanco to
third and put rookie Chase Utley in the line up at second.
Pitching:
The Phillies made all the right moves during the winter to
give themselves one of the best pitching staffs, top to bottom, in the National
League. I haven’t talked much about middle relief and set up guys in these
previews, but the group in Philadelphia is worth mentioning. They kept Rheal
Cormier and his gaudy numbers (8 and 0, 1.70 ERA), and they added Roberto
Hernandez and Tim Worrell to go along with the best closer in baseball not named
Gagne.
- Kevin Millwood, R: His second half slump last
year killed their chances. He needs to be consistent from day one. He
started 7 and 1; he ended 7 and 11.
- Randy Wolf, L: If Wolf can reduce his walks
he’ll be one of the best in the NL.
- Vincente Padilla, R: The experts complain that
Padilla is only five games over .500 the last two years, but that’s really
misleading. He went 14 and 12 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The Brave’s
Russ Ortiz had a 3.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but finished 21 and 7. A pitchers
win record is really not a great tool for measuring his effectiveness.
- Eric Milton, L: He missed most of last season,
but he looked good in three starts at the end of the year.
- Brett Myers, R: Myers could ultimately be the
best pitcher on the staff.
Closer Billy Wagner, L: 44
saves, 1.78 ERA, 105 strikeouts in 86 innings pitched. That says it all.
| Remarkably Similar |
|
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BB |
BA |
OPS |
|
| Jim Thome (11) |
5218 |
1028 |
1486 |
381 |
1058 |
18 |
1108 |
.285 |
.979 |
| Ralph Kiner (10*) |
5205 |
971 |
1451 |
369 |
1015 |
22 |
1011 |
.279 |
.946 |
Kiner is in the Hall already and Thome will be.
Fantasy Top 5:
- Jim Thome
- Bobby Abreu
- Billy Wagner
- Randy Wolf
- Kevin Millwood
Posted by at March 29, 2004 11:25 PM