Odd Thoughts

2004 San Diego Padres Preview

The Bottom Line:
Here you go. This is my boldest prediction for 2004. The San Diego Padres will finish no worse than second, and could even steal the division away from the Giants. I know it sounds risky, but I really believe your looking at postseason contenders. Sheesh, I’ll take it a step further: the Padres will christen their new stadium (regrettably known as Petco Park) with a division title.

Line Up:

I believe this will be the best offense in the NL West.  It
won’t be the best in the league by a long stretch, but with the veterans healthy
and improvement from the young players they will be very tough.  

 

1. Jay Payton, CF: He probably won’t match the 28
   home runs he hit last year in Colorado, but he will be a solid all-around
   player.


2. Mark Loretta, 2B: He hit .314 and led the team
   with 72 RBI’s and nobody noticed.  He’s a perfect fit in the #2 hole.


3. Brian Giles, RF: Now that Giles is in a strong
   line up he’ll become a real MVP candidate.


4. Phil Nevin, 1B: His .279 average with 13 home
   runs and 46 RBI’s was fantastic considering he missed the first 103 games of
   the season, and now he’ll even have people batting in front of him to drive
   in.


5. Ryan Klesko, LF: Nagging injuries and
   absolutely no line up protection killed him last year.  The first problem is
   supposedly taken care of and the second one definitely is.


6. Sean Burroughs, 3B: Burroughs will take a big
   step forward now that he has another year of experience and gets to hit in a
   low-pressure spot.


7. Ramon Hernandez, C: Hernandez is solid in all
   facets of a catcher’s duties.  It’s possible that Oakland’s Billy Beane
   finally made a mistake by trading him.


8. Khalil Green, SS: He’s a rookie; your guess is
   as good as mine.

 

Pitching:

They go four deep in the rotation, which is better than any
other team in the division.  Like the offense, their pitching is not even close
to the top of the National League, but it could be good enough considering their
competition.  The first four spots are based on seniority and while it is likely
to be the order they use at the start of the season, talent wise, you should
think of them in reverse order.

 

1. David Wells, L: He’s risky, but everybody seems
   to believe he’s got a little left.  He’s only at #1 because of seniority.


2. Brian Lawrence, R: Improved offense and defense
   around him will but him in the 18-win range. 


3. Adam Eaton, R: Situational improvements
   combined with even better stuff than Lawrence could make him the ace by the
   end of the year.


4. Jake Peavey, R: Probably even better than
   Eaton.


5. Ismael Valdes, R: I think he’s just relived to
   be out of Texas.

Closer Trevor Hoffman, R:
Hoffman was injured almost all of last year, but he came back at the end and
looked just as sharp as ever in nine appearances.

 

Remarkably Similar
	W	L	SV	IP	ER	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
Trevor Hoffman (11)	45	44	352	710	219	808	217	2.78	1.06
Bruce Sutter (12)	68	71	300	1042.1	328	861	309	2.83	1.14

 

I really don’t know what to make of this.  Part of the
problem is that the context for closers in the Hall of Fame is largely unknown.
 The other part is that even though there were only five years between Sutter’s
last year and Hoffman’s first, the way managers use closers has changed
tremendously – just look at the ratio of innings to saves.  Anyway, I believe
Sutter should be in, and if you’ve followed the voting over the last five or six
years, it seems likely that he’ll make it.  Rich Gossage is another good closer
candidate for the Hall.  As for Hoffman, it’s hard to say.  In the last fifteen
years, he has more saves than any other player.  The next name on the list is
Dennis Eckersley, but that’s not a good comparison since Eckersley had a long
career as a starter too.  Out of the other guys in the top ten, Mariano Rivera
seems like the only one that could get some Hall of Fame consideration.  Just a
thought.

 

Fantasy Top 5:

1. Brian Giles


2. Phil Nevin


3. Brian Lawrence


4. Jake Peavey


5. Ryan Klesko

 

Posted by at March 28, 2004 11:14 PM