Odd Thoughts

Mariner Update

The Mariners have certainly been active this winter, for better or for worse. I find that I'm generally excited when I first hear about BM Bill Bavasi's latest move, but when I really think about it, his moves kind of stink.

Here's my attempt to look at where we really are. We've essentially lost five players and gained five players. On the bench, we've lost John Mabry and Greg Colbrunn and added Quinton McCracken and Dave Hansen. Here's a breakdown of of what they've done the past four years:

Mabry: age 33, bats left, AVG: .239, OPS: .741
Hansen: age 35, bats left, AVG: .256, OPS: .725

Colbrunn: age 34, bats right, AVG: .310, OPS: .929
McCracken: age 34, bats both, AVG: .273, OPS: .713

For you Delta Fantasy Baseball types out there, their points over the last three years were:

Mabry - points: 291, PPG: 1.12
Hansen - points: 236, PPG: 0.79

Colbrunn - points: 227, PPG 1.48
McCracken - points: 333, PPG:1.27

We lose a bit on offense with Hansen vs. Mabry however, Mabry played only first base, while Hansen plays first, third (primarily), and outfield. I call the move even.

It appears that we lose offensively on McCracken vs. Colbrunn, but those numbers don't tell the whole story. Colbrunn was a stud bench player in Arizona, but was mostly hurt in Seattle. McCracken's PPG suffers because he was occassionally used as a pinch runner. Like the last case, we gain defensively as Colbrunn was another first base only type, while McCracken is above average in all three outfield spots. I feel that we gain in this case.

In the bullpen, we lost Arther Rhodes and added Eddie Guardado, both lefties. Because the two filled different roles the past few years, it difficult to compare their numbers, but I'll do my best. Again, these numbers are for the last three years.

Rhodes, age 34, IP:191.2, K: 212, ERA: 2.64, WHIP: 0.98
Guardado, age 33, IP:199.2, K: 207, ERA: 3.11, WHIP: 1.03

When you consider Gaurdado had to deal with the Homer (Metro) Dome, while Rhodes was in the comforst of Saefco, the scale tips toward Guardado. The difference in their WHIPs is tiny already, and the difference in ERAs is almost certainly park related. Plus, Rhodes almost certainly had fewer inherited runners, as the M's starting pitching was much better than the Twins. Finally, while Rhodes seemed to lose a bit in 2003, Guardado was better in '03, albeit slightly, than he was in '02. This is a definite upgrade.

At third base we've finally dumped Jeff Cirillo and replaced him with Scott Spiezio. I really don't think there much to argue here. Cirillo, at least as a Mariner, was a total bust. He was good with the glove, and I wish him the best, but he really stunk it up. Meanwhile, Spiezio has been a solid hitter for the Angels, though he unspectacular in the field. Still, the offense he provides is worth far more. Another definite upgrade.

At the present, there is only one other change. That is, out with Mike Cameron and in with Raul Ibanez. It's tough to compare these two since Cameron's primary value was in the field. He's regarded by most baseball people as the best defensive centerfielder in the game, but as a Mariner fan, the strike outs were just too much to bear. Ibanez brings a lot more offense, though he's no superstar. He's not even in the same category as Cameron on defense, which will put Randy Winn in center while Ibanez plays left. In my mind, I still can't decide how I feel about this series of moves. Ibanez seems like a good guy, but I'm afraid Cameron (who was also quite a guy himself) and his defensive wizardry will be missed. We have not spent any part of any season in Saefco without him, so we'll have to wait and see, and at this time I'll call it a draw.

We're rumored to be signing short stop Rich Aurilia and then sending Carlos Guillen to the Rockies for prospects. At this time, that seems like a good deal.

Finally, on the Cirillo trade, I read this quote at Mariner Musings:

I could understand looking to shed Cirillo's contract, but they didn't even manage to do that. And for whatever else anyone may think of Cirillo, at least the guy used to be good. Kevin Jarvis and Wiki Gonzalez used to be, um, Padres...

Posted by at January 7, 2004 08:24 PM