MLB Report
We’re almost the three-quarter point of the season. Most teams have 45-47 games
left, so this will be the first of a two-part update for this point of the
season. This week I’ll look at statistical possibilities and save the playoff
picture for next week.
The Detroit Tigers are shooting for a not so glorious record. They are well on
their way to becoming the worst team of all time. As it stands, The 1962 New
York Mets hold that distinction; they went 40-122 in their second year of
existence. The Tigers are currently 30-85. They are 18.5 games behind the
Cleveland Indians for fourth place in their own division. They are 15.5 games
worse than the second worst team in the game this year, Tampa Bay. Detroit’s
winning percentage (.261) projects out to 42-120 over the course of the season,
which would make them a game better than the ’62 Mets, but that’s just two games
and the Tigers are bad enough to drop two or three more to set the record. My
Prediction: The Tigers will be the worst team in a long time, but not the worst
team of all time.
Last year, Jose Hernandez, then of the Milwaukee Brewers, made a run at Bobby
Bonds’ 1970 record of 189 strikeouts in a season. Has manager at the time, Davey
Lopes, benched Hernandez with two weeks left to keep him from passing the mark.
Now Hernandez is with the Pirates and is well on his way to setting a new
standard. If he plays every game the rest of the year, I project he’ll end with
204 strikeouts, which would obviously shatter the mark. The only question is,
will Lloyd McClendon keep him in the line up or bench him as Lopes did last
year? A MLB manager, regardless of his place in the standings, must go out and
field his best line up every night, and in this case, Jose Hernandez is part of
that group. Most people seemed to view Lopes’ actions of last year to be
cowardly. My Prediction: McClendon will keep Hernandez in the games, and
Hernandez will set a new record.
Dodger’s closer Eric Gagne recently set the record for most consecutive saves to
start a season – 39. Only Tom Gordon, who saved 54 in 1998/99 for the Red Sox
has a longer streak. My Prediction: He’ll set a new record, but it might not
happen this year. . . In a related chase, Atlanta closer John Smoltz is still on
pace to pass the single season saves mark of 57, set by the White Sox’s Bobby
Thigpen in 1990. Smoltz has 42 saves, and I think he’ll have 43 by the end of
the night. That would leave him 14 away, with 45 games left. My Prediction:
He’ll do it.
Barry Bonds currently has 648 career home runs. He needs 13 more to pass Willie
Mays for third on the all time list. My Prediction: He’ll do it in about three
weeks. On a broader note, will Bonds pass Hank Aaron’s 755? Let’s conservatively
assume he finishes 2003 with at 665 career – 90 short of Aaron. That would leave
three home run milestones in his path: #700, #714 (passes Babe Ruth), and #756.
Bonds has three years left on his contract after this year, and I believe he
intends to play all three. That means he only needs to average 30 homers a year
to set the mark. It seems quite likely that he’ll retire as the home run king.
Finally, will Albert Pujols win the Triple Crown? I would love for him to do it,
but My Prediction is that he will win the batting title and lead the league in
RBI’s, but he’ll fall short in home runs. He’s currently 5 behind Bonds and I
just don’t think he can catch up. But don’t feel bad Cardinal fans, that MVP
trophy will sure look nice.
Game of the Week: Anything involving the Boston Red Sox. They play 4 against the
A’s, a team that is currently one game behind them for the wildcard spot. Then
the Red Sox play three against the Mariners over the weekend. Unfortunately for
Boston they have to do the same thing over again the next week. After two weeks
like that, the Yankees will have to send thank you notes to Seattle and Oakland
for putting the Red Sox out of the picture.