Statistical Analysis of the Texas Rangers
Before the season began, I made a two-fold claim to Matt Greydanus: 1) The AL
West is the best division in baseball, and 2) The Texas Rangers are the best
last place team in baseball. Last week I talked to Matt on the phone and he
challenged these statements. I decided to see who was right. I’ll handle the
matter of best divisions later and focus on the last-place discussion now.
First, however, I need to qualify the study. My conversation with Matt was
particularly focused on the Rangers during the A-Rod era (2001 to the present).
On the list below, I left off two teams that finished last one time during the
selected years: the 2001 Rockies and the 2001 Expos. The Rockies finished below
.500 in 2002 and are currently .500 in 2003. The Expos were over .500 in 2002
and are currently over .500 in 2003. I also made some exceptions with the Mets
and the Reds, both of which have two bad years and one good year out of the
three considered. In fact the Reds did not even finish in last place once. So
here’s the list. The number in parentheses is the number of last-place finishes
each team has had in the three years considered. The number on the left of the
slash is wins and the number on the right is total games played through 8/3/03.
2001-2003
TEX (3) 193/435 = .444
SDP (2) 189/437 = .433
KCR (1) 186/432 = .431
CIN (0) 195/435 = .448 (.429 minus 3rd finish in 2002)
PIT (1) 185/432 = .428
BAL (0) 182/431 = .422
MIL (2) 168/435 = .386
DET (2) 150/432 = .347
TBD (3) 148/432 = .343
NYM (2) 202/434 = .465 (.339 minus 3rd finish in 2001)
The Padres have been the other “good” last place team. The figure on the Royals
includes their record from this year. As of right now, the Rangers are the best
last place team for 2003, ahead of all five other last place teams, plus the
Cleveland Indians. In 2002, the were the 2nd best (3.5 games behind the Mets,
but better than three non-last place teams), In 2001, they tied with the Padres
for best last place honors and were better than four non-last place teams. The
Next list goes back one more year. The Rangers did not have A-Rod, but still
finished in last place. In 2000, they were 2nd amongst last place teams, 5 games
behind the Padres, and better than one non-last place team. The next list has
totals from 2000 to the present. Three teams finished last in 2000 (Phillies,
Cubs, and Twins) but have had success since, and therefore have been left off
this list.
2000-2003
KCR (1) 263/594 = .4427
SDP (3) 265/599 = .4424
TEX (4) 264/597 = .4422
BAL (0) 256/593 = .432
PIT (1) 254/594 = .428
MIL (2) 241/597 = .404
DET (2) 229/594 = .386
TBD (4) 217/593 = .366
Texas is 3rd on this list, but the margin of difference is in the
ten-thousandths column, and The Padres finished last three times (compared to
four by Texas), and the Royals numbers are significantly aided by the fact that
they are currently in 1st place in their division. Now, the final list is really
the tell-all, case-closed argument. It is a list of the winning percentages of
the last place teams in each division, regardless of franchise. The AL West and
East are the only ones that have the same team in last place for the period
considered (Rangers and Devil Rays). The number of different teams in last place
in the other divisions is in parentheses.
2000-2003
ALW 264/597 = .442
NLW (2) 259/599 = .432
NLE (3) 253/596 = .425
NLC (3) 227/597 = .380
ALC (3) 218/594 = .367
ALE 217/593 = .366
I Think the answer is clear: The Texas Rangers are the best last place team of
the 21st century.