MLB Report
I've covered and complained about all-stars, I've made a few observations about
the first half, so there's only a few items remaining before we head into the
all-star break. Has anybody noticed how hot Sammy Sosa has been lately? For a
guy that has missed about 25 games this season, his season numbers are not far
off from where they should be (18, 50, .310). In the last three weeks he's been
even better (11, 20, .338). Barry Bonds made it to 30 home runs before the
break, giving him 643 career, just 17 short of Willie Mays for third on the
all-time list. I expect he'll do it this year. Assuming he finishes the year
with 55 (668), he'll be just 46 away from passing Babe Ruth (713) - 88 away from
passing Hank Aaron (755). He may not be the most valuable player in the game (in
terms of a paycheck), but he is still the most feared hitter in the game. It
seems safe to say that when someone asked who the greatest player of all time
is, Bonds has to be in the discussion. Blue Jays star Carlos Delgado enters the
break with 97 RBIs. He's on pace for 167 for the year. That would tie him with
Joe DiMaggio's 1937 total at #11. Only two players in recent memory have driven
in 160 (Sosa, 160, 2001 & Manny Ramirez 165, 1999). Juan Pierre of the Marlins
has already stolen 44 bases. So he's on pace for 80+, which is not record
setting, but no player has stolen 80 or more since 1988 (Vince Coleman, 81 &
Rickey Henderson, 93). Of course John Smoltz and Eric Gagne are both on pace to
set the single-season saves record (57, Bobby Thigpen, 1990). Smolt is already
#2 on that list with 55 saves last year. Ichiro is leading the majors with 137
hits and is on pace for 239. That would give him 689 hits in his first 3
seasons. This is a hard record to research, but I did my best. I looked through
the top 100 on the all-time hit list. The only person even close in his first
three seasons is Lloyd Waner who had 678 hits from 1927-29. I realized how great
a feat that was when I looked through the same list to find players who could
exceed that hit total in any three consecutive seasons in their career. I found
only two: 703, Rogers Hornsby and 719 George Sisler. Both did it in the years
1920-22 and both hit over .400 at least once in that span (Hornsby .401 in 1922,
Sisler .407 in 1920 and .420 in 1922). Based on some rough projections, Ichiro
would need 270 hits to pass Sisler's total for a three-year span. That would
smash the single-season hit mark also held by Sisler (257 in 1920). Based on the
projection of Ichiro's at bat per game ratio, 270 hits would give him a .397
batting average. I suppose we can hope. The biggest projection questions for
this season involve Albert Pujols. There are two questions: 1) Can he hit .400?
2)Can he win the Triple Crown? He can't hit .400. He's just not the right type
to do it. He's right handed, not especially quick, gets too many walks, and
opposing teams want to pitch around him. (Ichiro seems to be thge most likely
candidate of current MLB players to pull off the feat - he's the opposite of all
my objections about Pujols - but it still seems unlikely to me that anybody will
do it again, including Ichiro.) Pujols could, however, win the Triple Crown.
He's running away with the batting title, 4th in home runs, and second in RBIs.
Of the players ahead of him in home runs, only Bonds is proven home run hitter,
and pitchers pitch around him more than any other player in the game, which
drives his home run totals down, and the other two guys (Jim Edmonds and Mike
Lowell) both have good pop, but neither has been a perenial slugger. Pujols has
better guys batting in front of him than Preston Wilson, who is currently ahead
of Pujols in RBI's. I'm not making a promise that Pujols will pull it off, but I
think he has the ability to do it, and I'm rooting for him to pull it off.